Sen. John Fetterman is (D-Pa.) is calling on his fellow Democrats to "chill the f— out,” after Joe Biden’s train wreck debate performance Thursday night. According to him, he is living proof that “a rough debate” doesn’t mean it’s over for a candidate. But he’s wrong, the two situations aren’t comparable, and I’ll explain why Biden’s debate was far more devastating.
As you know, Democrats were sent into a panic after Thursday night’s debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, with the latter’s performance being so bad that many in the liberal media didn’t even try to sugarcoat it.
Even MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough, who has spent months claiming that Biden is “far beyond cogent” and that "he's better than he's ever been intellectually, analytically,” finally admitted that Democrats have an opportunity to decide if Biden “is up to the task of running for president of the United States."
A House Democrat even revealed to Politico that there is a growing push within the party to encourage Biden to drop out. The Democrat suggested that leaders like Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer should collaborate to persuade Biden to step aside.
But, not John Fetterman.
Morning-after thermonuclear beat downs from my race from the debate and polling geniuses like 538 predicted l’d lose by 2.
— John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) June 28, 2024
And what happened?
The only seat to flip and won by a historic margin (+5).
Chill the fuck out.
Fetterman is absolutely correct that he had a disastrous debate in 2022 against Dr. Mehmet Oz. Heck, Joe Scarborough even called it “painful to watch.” And there were reports of Democrats panicking about that election, and expressing regret over Fetterman’s decision to agree to debate Oz.
“He should not have debated. Anyone on his team who agreed to a debate should be fired, or never work again, because that debate may have tanked his campaign,” Chris Kofinis, a veteran Democratic campaign strategist, said at the time. “This race was trending toward victory. Now, it’s anyone’s guess what happens.”
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Post-debate polls proved that point. Oz promptly took the lead in post-debate polls and political betting markets shifted heavily in his favor.
And then Fetterman won.
But, Fetterman’s debate performance and subsequent victory isn’t a valid example, and I’ll tell you why.
The Fetterman-Oz debate took place on the evening of October 25, 2022—a mere two weeks before the election. The lateness of the debate had worked heavily in favor, as nearly a quarter of all the votes cast in that election were cast early—effectively blunting the impact of the debate.
“If nobody had voted early, and this was the old days, I would say Fetterman is pretty much done after last night. But a lot of people have voted already and I’m guessing he banked a big lead already.” David Palelologos, Suffolk University pollster said at the time.
Related: The Worst Video From Debate Night and the Real Reason Biden Isn't Going Anywhere
Both Thursday night’s debate and the next scheduled debate take place before early voting, which means that all voters before early voting begins — which means, unlike the Fetterman debate and subsequent election, all voters will be able to take the debate(s) into account when they vote.
The bigger question is whether, assuming Biden doesn’t drop out, there is enough time for Biden to recover from this debate... and whether he participates in the next one. One thing is for sure: if he wasn’t drugged for the first debate, he will be for the second one.
