In the weeks following Donald Trump's conviction in the rigged New York trial, we saw a tightening in the polls. However, it was so modest that, as of last week, Trump still had the lead in the RealClearPolitics national average, but Joe Biden had, for the first time, taken a marginal lead in the FiveThirtyEight average. The Biden campaign celebrated the news that a few select polls showed the race getting tighter, but it was nothing to brag about. Now the campaign ought to be panicking again.
The Biden campaign should never have stopped panicking. In 2020, Biden led by over nine points in the RCP national average at this stage of the campaign, while Hillary Clinton held a nearly seven-point lead in 2016. Despite losing the popular vote by 4.5 points in 2020, Trump's electoral defeat was narrow, hinging on a few battleground states with a collective margin of less than 50,000 votes. In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points but secured victory in the Electoral College. In other words, Biden's marginal lead in the national average doesn't translate into an election victory for him.
Related: Nate Silver Drops a Truth Bomb About the Election, and the Left Won't Like It
Two new polls have been released, and they suggest that any negative impact the verdict had on Trump's campaign has likely stopped and is subsiding.
First, we have the latest New York Times/Siena poll, which shows Trump up four points nationally in a two-way race with Biden and up three points nationally with third-party candidates included.
2024 National GE:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) June 27, 2024
Trump 48% (+4)
Biden 44%
.
Trump 40% (+3)
Biden 37%
Kennedy 7%
Stein 2%
Oliver 1%
West 0%
.@SienaResearch/@nytimes, 1,226 LV, 6/20-25https://t.co/RE2rXWeW0a
This is not the most devastating poll for Biden. The worst poll for Biden comes from Quinnipiac, which also shows Trump ahead of Biden nationally by four points.
2024 National GE:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) June 26, 2024
Trump 49% (+4)
Biden 45%
.
Trump 43% (+6)
Biden 37%
Kennedy 11%
Stein 2%
West 2%
Oliver 1%
.@QuinnipiacPoll, 1,405 RV, 6/20-24https://t.co/FjfkJ9UVAa
Why is this more devastating for Biden than the previous poll? The Quinnipiac poll has, for the majority of this campaign cycle, shown Biden ahead of Trump.
The @QuinnipiacPoll has (quite consistently) had Biden ahead nationally throughout this campaign cycle... and now shows Trump ahead by four points. pic.twitter.com/7w00gfq8ks
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) June 27, 2024
When a poll that has consistently shown Biden ahead throughout this campaign, especially while the majority of polls have shown the opposite, now shows Trump ahead, that's huge. And by four points!
It can only mean one of two things. Either this poll is an outlier or there is indeed a notable shift in public opinion favoring Trump that the poll's bias toward Biden can't cover up. I can't say the poll isn't an outlier for Quinnipiac — it does show a five-point swing to Trump since mid-May. It is one of two national polls released this week showing Trump up four points, and Trump's lead is outside the poll's margin of error.
Biden can't be happy about that.
