CNN Is STILL Too Afraid to Update Its Election Projection Map

Back in January, CNN launched its election projection map called "Road to 270," which features an interactive map based on "public and private polling, conversations with campaign advisers, Republican and Democratic political operatives, members of Congress, and political professionals involved with outside groups poised to be active in the race." 

Its inaugural projection had Trump winning the Electoral College and thus the presidency, 272 to Biden's 225, with three states remaining as toss-ups: Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. 

CNN’s ‘Road to 270’ shows "Trump in a position to win the White House.”

Trump: 272 (winner)
Biden: 225

That’s without toss-up states assigned to either candidate. pic.twitter.com/NZGv8sekxD

— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) January 8, 2024

At the time the map was launched, CNN promised that "Future versions of this outlook will similarly reflect the realities of the race, as best we can assess them at the time."

Yet, nearly six months later, CNN hasn't updated their map yet.

It's the end of June. CNN’s 'Road to 270,' which launched in January, has yet to be updated, but it still shows Trump winning with 272 Electoral College votes, with three states still labeled toss-ups. pic.twitter.com/ALXeuvh1Ci

— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) June 25, 2024

What really strikes me as odd about this is that the dynamics of the race have certainly changed since January. Trump's position in Michigan has gotten weaker, and that state could go in the toss-up column, which would put the race at 257-225 with Trump ahead. Of course, the race has changed in other ways as well. Trump's stronger in Arizona, which would put Trump at 268 — a mere two Electoral College votes away from victory.

Related: Trump’s Chances in New York May Be Better Than You Think

As we've previously reported, two new battlegrounds have opened up in Minnesota and Virginia. I'd say Biden is still favored in those states, but they're technically in toss-up territory. And there's one more change I would make to the map. In January, when "Road to 270" was launched, Trump had a 1-point lead in the RCP average in Pennsylvania. Today, it's a 2.8-point lead. So, throw Pennsylvania into Trump's column, and you get the following map:

Here's what CNN's 'Road to 270' would likely look like today if they updated it.

Trump: 287 (winner)
Biden: 202 pic.twitter.com/HPKNMpyhbp

— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) June 25, 2024

There's no excuse for CNN not updating their map. There's been plenty of polling since January to modify their projections. Even if they kept Pennsylvania as a toss-up when they updated, it would be something — except that it would show that Joe Biden's position since January has gotten weaker, not stronger. In that scenario, Trump would have 260 Electoral College votes to Biden's 202. That's an extremely weak position because Biden would have to sweep Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia to win the election — assuming he wins Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.

That seems to be the only explanation for why CNN has chosen not to update its "Road to 270" map. Objectively speaking, even if you consider Pennsylvania a toss-up, Biden's position is getting weaker, not stronger.