With Joe Biden trailing in the polls and many Democrats panicking about the 2024 election, I don't doubt that many of them felt that the sham trial would be the silver bullet that took down Donald Trump's campaign. It wasn't.
Since the guilty verdicts in his New York trial, Donald Trump has raised a staggering amount of money from Americans outraged by the two-tiered justice system and more energized to vote for him than ever. If Democrats were expecting or hoping that Trump would take a major dive in the polls, there's no evidence yet that is going to happen. Post-verdict match-up polls appear to show a little movement but within the margin of error.
Related: You Won’t Believe How Much Money Trump Has Now Raised Since the Verdict
And now, a new I&I/TIPP Poll finds that the verdict "seems to have actually helped Trump."
In a matchup between Biden and Trump, the new poll shows both candidates in a statistical tie at 41%. This marks a notable uptick for Trump since the previous month's I&I/TIPP poll when he trailed Biden by a slim two-percentage-point margin (42% for Biden versus 40% for Trump). It's a statistical showdown with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.
The poll also found that Trump is still handily beating Biden among independents, 38% to 26%.
While month-to-month changes are small for both candidates, some interesting shifts occurred within individual voting groups.
In May, 33% of independents supported Trump, 25% Biden, 18% RFK Jr. and 6% “other.” In June, that had become 31% Trump, 22% Biden, 18% RFK Jr., and 5% “other.” That shift among independents, who make up about 28% of the I&I/TIPP responses, seems to favor Trump.
In another question, we asked respondents whether they “strongly” or “moderately” supported their respective candidates. It’s called “support intensity.”
Again, Trump has an edge in voter enthusiasm, with 65% of his backers saying they support him “strongly,” while 32% responded “moderately,” for a total of 97%. Biden, meanwhile, received 60% strong support, but 38% moderate, for a total of 98%.
The poll also tried to uncover respondents' "hidden preferences" by asking about their predictions and observations. When asked who they expect to win the presidential election, 36% chose Biden, 36% chose Trump, 15% said it was "too close to call," and 10% were unsure. Among Republicans, 71% predicted a Trump victory, while 72% of Democrats expected a Biden win, with 12% from both parties saying it was too close to call.
Another revealing question asked who they believed their neighbors would vote for if the election were held today. The responses showed 43% for Trump and 31% for Biden, with 25% unsure. This was largely influenced by party affiliation: 73% of Republicans believed their neighbors would vote for Trump, while 62% of Democrats thought their neighbors would vote for Biden.
"If anyone was expecting a sudden mass exodus of Trump voters following his legal defeat they were certainly disappointed," writes Terry Jones of TIPP Insights. "If anything, Trump’s hand seems to have strengthened some in the immediate aftermath of his conviction."
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