For years now, Texas has been the Democrats' white whale. In the past, they've believed they could win a Senate seat or even see the state vote Democrat in a presidential election, and they've been disappointed each time. That would be the ultimate victory for them. Texas has 40 Electoral College votes. If Democrats could flip the state, it would severely narrow the path for any Republican to win a presidential election.
Democrats haven't exactly been shy about their plan to flip Texas. In fact, in 2020, Joe Biden not only claimed that Texas is a battleground state, but also insisted he could win it.
“Texas is an important battleground state for our campaign in 2020,” Biden told Texas Democrats during their convention that year. “I think we have a real chance to turn the state blue because of the work all of you have done. We have to keep the House of Representatives. We have to win over the United States Senate. We have to flip the Texas House. We have to lead and deliver meaningful change for people who are hurting all across this nation."
Biden invested money in Texas, running ads in Democratic strongholds. He even even sent Kamala Harris there in the final weeks of the campaign.
It's not like they didn't have reason to be hopeful that such a thing was possible. Trump's final RealClearPolitics average in Texas in 2020 was +1.3 points. There was clearly a shift going on considering he won the state by nine points four years earlier. He ultimately won the state by just under six points. There's no way to sugarcoat Trump's shrinking margin in Texas. That was a dangerously close election for a state with a reputation for being solidly red.
Texas has been increasingly looking more purple than red. Hence the reason for the Democrats' support of open borders and amnesty. Last year, the Biden administration sought to keep illegal immigrants in Texas while they awaited asylum screening. Given the massive wave of illegal immigration, it was obvious that asylum claims wouldn't be processed quickly, meaning these illegals, who have no business in the country to begin with, would essentially be stuck in Texas indefinitely. When illegals are forced to stay somewhere for an undetermined period, they start putting down roots in the local community and are likely to remain there. This situation is ideal for Democrats, who are biding their time for the chance to grant illegal immigrants amnesty, complete with all the rights of citizenship — including the right to vote.
That's the key to turning Texas blue.
Considering the trends in Texas, and the ongoing border crisis, it would be natural to be concerned that Texas might be even more competitive this year than it was four years ago.
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Except, it's not. Recent polls from the Lone Star State show that Trump has roughly a double-digit lead this year, largely due to the fact that, unlike in 2020, Texas independents are breaking for Trump.
"Independents, who Biden carried by 6-percentage points in 2020, now break for Trump. Trump receives 56% of Texas independents to 41% for Biden," a Marist poll from earlier this year found. The poll also found that Biden's support among younger voters has significantly decreased. Trump now leads Biden by 14 points (57% to 43%) among voters aged 18 to 29, a stark contrast to the 2020 election, when Biden won this group by 17 points (57% to 40%). Among voters aged 30 to 44, Trump holds a substantial lead with 60% compared to Biden's 40%, whereas this demographic was evenly split in 2020.
Trump has also gained ground among black voters in Texas. While Biden still leads with 64% to Trump's 34%, this is a huge decline from the 90% support Biden received in 2020. Additionally, Biden's support among Latino voters has diminished, with him now leading Trump by only 5 points (52% to 47%) compared to a 17-point advantage in 2020.
It certainly looks like Joe Biden squandered the Democrats' hopes of flipping Texas.
