Before today's trial proceedings in New York City, former President Donald Trump informed reporters of his intention to "make a play for New York" in the 2024 election — a move that, if he's serious, would be a mistake. There's another state that Trump should make a play for which could be consequential to the outcome.
"We're very close in New York, I understand," Trump said. "We're leading the country by a lot. A poll just came out a little while ago, as you saw yesterday that we have—we're up in every swing state and up by a lot in every swing state. So I think we're gonna do very well, and we're gonna make a play for New York."
"Biden is the worst president in history and we have some very bad people here, but we have the greatest people and they're right behind me," he added. "We have a good chance of winning New York, in my opinion, but we're gonna give it a shot."
"He's the worst president in the history of our country," Trump said of Joe Biden. "He makes Jimmy Carter look great. Jimmy Carter is very happy because his presidency was brilliant by comparison, but this is the worst president we've ever had."
JUST IN: Donald Trump announces he is going to try to win the state of New York during a visit with Union workers at a construction site in Manhattan.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) April 25, 2024
The workers could be heard saying “We Love Trump” as he made the announcement.
“We're very close in New York. I understand…… pic.twitter.com/5hqItz5JyH
I honestly have no idea what poll Trump is referring to. Recent polling shows Biden comfortably ahead in New York by roughly ten points — a significant difference from the 23 points by which Biden won the state in 2020, and the 21 points Hillary Clinton by which won the state in 2016. As much as I don't want to minimize the significance of the recent polling and what it implies about Biden's weakness in 2024, I can't imagine that the Trump campaign sees enough of a chance to win New York to commit resources there.
Where should Trump be making a play? It's a state that few people are focusing on right now, but the most recent polling there shows that it may be competitive: Maine.
Laugh if you want. Maine has a mere four Electoral College votes, and the votes are split: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each district. But it could be a potential game-changer in the upcoming election.
The latest poll out of Maine from February shows Biden is currently leading by eight points in Maine's 1st District, while Trump commands a substantial 20-point lead in the 2nd District. This dynamic translates to a six-point advantage for Trump statewide, potentially securing three out of Maine's four Electoral College votes.
Why does this matter? Well, based on the polls, Trump looks likely to win Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. Let's assume all other states stay the same as they were in 2020. If Trump wins three Electoral College votes in Maine instead of one, Biden could win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and still lose the election 270-268.
Of course, that poll is just one poll, and, unfortunately, there hasn't been any new polling out of Maine since. Could it have been an outlier? Maybe. We just don't know. But even a poll from November found Biden only up by a point statewide.
I don't doubt that New York's political landscape has shifted. Between Biden's disastrous presidency, and Republican Lee Zeldin's unusually strong performance in the 2022 gubernatorial election, New York may be shifting redder, but is that enough to make the state truly in play in 2024 for Trump? I doubt it. Maine is a smaller state, far more competitive than New York, where Trump is likely to make resources go a lot further.
