Trump Is Closing the Gender Gap. Can You Guess How?

AP Photo/Jason Allen

Joe Biden has been losing ground with black, Hispanic, and young voters, and that is threatening his chances in November. But those aren't the only demographics he's losing ground with. Another traditionally reliable voting bloc for Democratic presidential candidates has been women, and Biden is seeing his gender gap with Trump get smaller with them as well.


According to a report from the Washington Times, the border crisis is the issue that eclipses the abortion issue for many women, and so-called "border moms" will ultimately pull the lever for Trump.

The key demographic for Mr. Trump has long suffered from a gender gap, though he narrowed the gap in his 2020 matchup with Mr. Biden. Further gains for Mr. Trump among female voters make reelection more challenging for Mr. Biden.

The border moms’ fears came together this year with the killing of Laken Riley, a 22-year-old nursing student at the University of Georgia. The slaying on campus was blamed on an illegal immigrant whom the Biden administration caught and released at the border.

The mob beating of police officers in New York City, rapes in Louisiana and Massachusetts, the shooting death of a 2-year-old in Maryland, and the slaying of a woman in Michigan all were blamed on illegal immigrants who were beneficiaries of relaxed immigration policies under Mr. Biden.

What’s particularly worrying to border moms is fentanyl, the deadly synthetic opioid that is flooding the U.S. thanks to the Mexican smuggling cartels that also control the illegal flow of people.


According to Paul Shumaker, a North Carolina-based Republican Party pollster, the border is causing suburban women to abandon Democrats.  

“Joe Biden has a big problem on the immigration front because that issue is seen as a security issue at home in the suburbs with these women,” he explained. “They tie in fentanyl with it and drug overdoses."

He added, “The border is the biggest problem facing the president and his reelection.”

For our VIPs: Why Undecided Voters Will Swing to Trump

This is incredibly problematic for Biden, who believes that hammering Trump on abortion will drive up turnout among his otherwise unenthusiastic base. But according to the latest Economist/YouGov poll, the top issue for women in 2024 will be inflation at 24%, followed by immigration at 13%. Just 11% of female voters named abortion as their top issue.

The White House and the Biden campaign are very much aware that the immigration issue is a huge liability for Biden and have tried to flip the script and blame Trump and the GOP for the border crisis, but obviously, those efforts haven't worked.


“We now have a new class of voters called 'safety moms,’ and when Donald Trump, who they know is strong, says I will keep you safe, they believe him. And then they look at Joe Biden and see how weak he is it makes them nervous,” explained Trump pollster John McLaughlin. “There are plenty of safety moms who may not like Trump’s tweets or watch his rallies or speeches, but they want him back in the White House now because they and their families will feel safer.”

Related: How the Black Vote Matters in 2024


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