Is the Democratic Party on the verge of collapse?
It's been clear for some time that Biden has been struggling to maintain support with typically reliable Democrat-voting constituencies, namely, black, Hispanic, and young voters. According to recent reports, he's also losing ground with women over the border crisis. But what do these trends mean for the Democratic Party in the long term?
According to civil rights attorney Leo Terrell, even if a fraction of black voters shift their support to former President Donald Trump in the upcoming 2024 election, the Democratic Party is doomed.
“If the Democrat Party does not receive anywhere between 85 or 90% of the black vote, there is no Democrat Party,” Terrell told Fox News host Dana Perino.
Terrell then referenced a photograph that went viral from Trump's recent visit to Chick-fil-A in Atlanta of a black woman embracing him. “That photograph of that black woman with President Trump is a nightmare for CNN, MSNBC, New York Times. They have sent out a false narrative: ‘Trump is a racist, black people hate Trump.’ You see that photograph? That photograph shows a disconnect as to what the left-wing media is portraying.”
A new poll from the Wall Street Journal indicates a surge in support for Trump from black men in battleground states. In 2020, he received 12% of the vote from black men, while in 2024, 30% of black men in battleground states are backing him. It's an incredibly consequential swing.
Trump's support from black women also went up, albeit by a smaller margin. Trump has also gained support among black college students, where 8% supported him in 2020, and 18% support him now. Joe Biden has seen his support from black college students go from 91% in 2020 to 71% now.
“News flash: Trump is likable. Black people like Trump,” Terrell told Perino. “And those numbers that you just pointed out, Dana, reflect a shift from the Democrat Party to Donald J. Trump, and you can see a lot more of that because that is what’s happening. Look, everyone knows, four years ago, Dana, I made the switch when Joe Biden said, ‘If you don’t vote for me, you ain’t black.’ Well, I’m still black and I’m voting for Trump.”
Related: Can Biden Fix His Problem With Black Voters?
Perino then wanted to know if there was more to it than Trump being likable to black voters. "Is there a policy difference that is driving these numbers?"
"I know this is gonna hurt the Democrats, but Trump did more in those four years for black Americans: lowest unemployment, fully funding [Historically black colleges and universities], also the First Step Act. So blacks prospered under Donald J. Trump, and they have a comparison between that and the Joe Biden administration," he explained, adding that inflation, crime, and sanctuary cities are issues that are helping Trump with black voters.
Considering how few votes swung the 2020 election to Joe Biden in battleground states, Terrell is absolutely right. It won't take a huge swing of the black vote to Trump for him to win these states back and win the election, which puts Democrats in a very tough situation where it will be increasingly difficult for them to be able to win elections where the black vote is critical to their success.
