In the latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll of California's open Senate primary, Republican contender and former professional baseball player Steve Garvey has seen a surge in support, securing 27% support among likely voters, giving him a slight edge over Rep. Adam Schiff, who got 25% support.
The survey indicates that Garvey has seen a 14-point increase in support since January, suggesting that there's growing momentum for his candidacy. In contrast, Schiff experienced a more modest increase of four points, while Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee secured 19% and 8% support, respectively.
Porter saw a two-point increase, while Lee experienced a slight dip of one point in the survey. The shift in polling suggests that California's Senate primary for the late Dianne Feinstein's seat is becoming increasingly competitive.
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But don't get your hopes up just yet. This doesn't mean that Garvey has a chance to win in November.
The poll indicates that Garvey and Schiff would advance to the general election as the top-two vote-getters in Tuesday’s Senate primary, boxing out both Porter and Lee. However, Schiff would beat Garvey 53% to 38%, according to the survey, which found 9% of likely voters remain undecided.
A general election matchup between Schiff and Porter would be much more competitive, as the poll found the two tied at 30% with 40% of the respondents not sure about their choice.
The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll surveyed 3,304 likely California voters from Feb. 22 to Feb. 27 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2%.
Despite Garvey's momentum, he's only narrowly beating Schiff in a field with three Democrats who are bitterly trying to be the top Democrat in the race.
The Democratic vote has been split up among the three prominent House members in the blue state, and has become an expensive race for the top.
Schiff is currently leading the Democratic field in fundraising with $31.4 million, compared to Porter‘s $28 million and Lee‘s $5 million, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings. The congressman also far out-spent both of his colleagues at $38.7 million this cycle, and enters the primary with more cash on hand than Porter and Lee combined.
According to Politico, "The race has become the most expensive in the state's history, with Schiff spending and benefitting from nearly $45 million in ads, according to the ad-tracking service AdImpact."
So at this point, there's little reason to believe that Garvey's recent surge will give translate to a competitive general election. As Politico notes, "He is vastly underfunded, compared to his Democratic opponents, and California hasn’t elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006."
But Garvey's campaign still thinks that the former first basemen for the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres has bipartisan appeal.
"Garvey's half-century bond with Californians transcends politics and will prove to be a formidable force in both the primary and general elections," campaign spokesperson Matt Shupe said in a statement.
Perhaps the dynamics of the race will change after the primary, but Garvey's chances would be a lot better if it weren't a presidential election year.
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