After the 2020 election, all I wanted was for Donald Trump to run for president again and win so big that the Democrats would be shell-shocked. Trump said it best himself during his speech at CPAC.
“For hard-working Americans, November 5 will be our new liberation day. But for the liars and cheaters and fraudsters and censors and imposters who have commandeered our government, it will be their judgment day!" he said.
“Your victory will be our ultimate vindication, your liberty will be our ultimate reward and the unprecedented success of the United States of America will be my ultimate and absolute revenge,” he added.
Amen to that.
According to a new analysis from our partners at Decision Desk HQ, Trump's revenge could be a victory bigger than any the Republican Party has seen in decades.
"The estimates are the latest worrying sign for Biden as he seeks re-election," explains Newsweek. "The president has long faced concerns about his low approval ratings, as well as voters believing the 81-year-old is too old for a second term in office."
Decision Desk HQ projects that Trump is on track to win several swing states he didn't win in 2020, like Georgia and Arizona, and to even flip Nevada, which hasn't voted Republican since 2004. But even more importantly, Trump is on track to secure the "Blue Wall" states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
In a video from Decision Desk HQ, Liberty Vittert, a statistician and Professor of the Practice of Data Science at the Olin Business School at Washington University in St. Louis, explained the crucial significance of these three swing states for any contender aspiring to secure victory in a general election.
"Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania all went to Trump by less than a point in 2016 and then flipped back in favor of Biden by very narrow margins in 2020. They proved decisive in both of those elections," Vittert said. "Had Hillary Clinton held the states in 2016, she would have defeated Trump, and had Biden failed to flip these back in 2020, Trump would be in a second term right now."
Related: Report: House Democrats May Not Certify 2024 Election if Trump Wins
According to Vittert, assuming that Trump successfully flips the "Blue Wall" states and maintains support in Republican-leaning states, he could secure victory without winning any additional swing states in the Sunbelt — where he currently leads. In this scenario, Biden would need a "miracle" in Florida and Georgia to have a chance at reaching the crucial 270 electoral vote threshold in November. Based on the polls, I wouldn't count on it.
If Decision Desk HQ's projections pan out, Trump could win as many as 312 Electoral College votes — the largest any Republican candidate has won since George H.W. Bush in 1988, and more than the 306 Biden won in 2020.
This would be an amazing outcome for a lot of reasons. Not only would it be tremendous vindication for Trump, but it would also provide him with a clear mandate. It could throw the Democratic Party — which has stooped to the lowest of lows to stop him — in complete disarray.
