On an almost daily basis, we are seeing calls for Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 presidential race. His poll numbers are garbage. Americans are sour on the economy and they don't approve of his handling of the border, the war in Ukraine, or the Israel-Hamas war. It's widely accepted that his biggest liability is the one he has no control over: his age and cognitive decline.
There have been countless words devoted to speculation over who might replace Biden, when they might, and how. There seems to be some agreement that Biden would have to voluntarily drop out to pave the way for a replacement candidate to be anointed — and it's clear that he has no intention of doing so. Seeing as the deadlines to appear on the ballot in most states have already passed, the options for doing a switcheroo are extremely limited.
But what if Joe Biden dies before the election? I know nobody wants to talk about such an unpleasant scenario, but given his advanced age and obvious physical frailty, it's a possibility that most people are certainly thinking about.
And before I go further, let's not pretend that there is equal concern about Donald Trump. The left has been trying for months now to suggest parity between Biden's physical and mental health and Trump's. However, their endeavors have failed to mitigate the concerns about Biden's mortality.
So let's ask the uncomfortable question: What happens if Joe Biden dies before the election?
This would likely be the worst-case scenario for the Democrats, because Kamala Harris would immediately succeed him as president. It wouldn't necessarily preclude other Democrats from seeking the nomination at the Democratic National Convention, but it would be far more difficult for them to do so. If Biden were to drop out after winning the nomination but before the convention, Harris would still be favored to be the nominee, but her terrible poll numbers would likely pave the way for a bitter battle for the nomination. Candidates who have been waiting in the wings would want to take the opportunity to woo delegates at the convention in a battle defined by the question "Who can beat Trump?" and polls show Kamala can't beat him. Polls show other candidates aren't exactly emerging victorious, either, but the case could be made that Kamala is a known quantity, and the party's best chances are with a candidate who can spend the final months of the campaign defining their candidacy to the voters, while the Trump campaign would have to pivot to face a candidate they weren't prepared to run against.
Related: Nate Silver's Assessment of the Biden Campaign Is Brutal
But if Kamala is the incumbent, the Democrats can't run someone else. There isn't a chance that they will snub the first woman president and the second black president in favor of anyone else, minority or otherwise.
In short, if Biden dies before the election, the Democrats will likely be stuck running Kamala Harris. It's hard to imagine a worse scenario than that for the DNC. Not only is Kamala Harris Kamala Harris, but you can bet that if there's any Biden alternative candidate the Trump campaign is prepared to run against, it's her. Republicans have been using the axiom "A vote for Joe Biden is a vote for Kamala Harris" for over a year now. In addition to being a terrible candidate who polls even worse than Joe Biden, she will bear the burden of owning the entirety of the Biden-Harris record.
In short, if you're a Democrat, you're really hoping Joe Biden survives the campaign.
