I bet there isn’t a Democrat in the country right now who isn’t concerned about Joe Biden’s chances in the upcoming presidential election. Heck, I suspect that there are even some people in Biden’s inner circle who privately wish he had decided not to seek a second term. Even before his presidency, doubts existed about his ability to complete one term.
That was bad enough, but Joe is all in now. Polls still consistently indicate bipartisan concerns about his age and his mental and physical capabilities. They're bad enough that they are having a major impact on his poor polling in recent months against Donald Trump, particularly in battleground states.
We’re now ten months from the presidential election, and the same concerns Democrats had during Biden’s first year in office have only gotten worse since. Some party insiders aren’t being shy about the liability Biden presents for the Democrats this year. Former Obama advisor David Axelrod and Democrat strategist James Carville have both expressed concerns. Even Barack Obama has hit the panic button on the Biden campaign, and his wife Michelle recently claimed that she’s terrified about the upcoming election.
"I am terrified about what could possibly happen,” Michelle told Jay Shetty on his podcast "On Purpose." "Because our leaders matter—who we select, who speaks for us, who holds that bully pulpit—it affects us in ways that sometimes I think people take for granted."
I can remember being both embarrassed and horrified when her husband spoke for the nation. And Joe Biden isn't any better.
But I digress. If I were Michelle Obama, I would probably be terrified too. There's little reason to be confident that Joe Biden can pull this off. That said, despite ongoing calls from Democrat insiders for Biden to drop out, the likelihood of him actually doing so is, well, extremely slim.
In a recent episode of his podcast, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) argued that it's too late now for Biden to be replaced to allow for an open primary.
"I think if Joe Biden had dropped out two months ago, I think you'd see a ton of Democrats jumping in the field," he said. "I think the top four in the field would be Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Gavin Newsom.”
Cruz predicted others would certainly jump in, but "those would be the top four."
That was then. Now that it's January, there's no doubt that Biden's name will be on the ballot, which means there's only one opportunity for Biden to be replaced.
"At this point, we're sitting here in January; it's too late for Joe Biden not to run, so he's gonna run; he's on the ballot," which "means the only opportunity for the Democrats to pull Biden is at their convention this summer."
This is basically the same prediction made by J.P. Morgan analyst Michael Cembalest—it's a prediction that is extremely flawed.
As for Cruz, he thinks such a scenario would inevitably lead to Michelle Obama being picked as the nominee. It obviously can't be Kamala Harris because she's Kamala Harris. And the identity-obsessed Democratic Party would most certainly be inclined to find a diversity box-checking candidate. Michelle, for whatever reason, remains a popular public figure despite the fact she is awful in her own unique ways. But I don't think that means Democrats really believe she's ready to be the face of a presidential campaign -- and frankly, I doubt that she wants to be.
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Whether it's her or someone else, this strategy of replacing Biden at the convention still has a bunch of other problems. For one thing, it gives the anointed nominee just over two months to campaign and make the case for their election. While there are rumors that Joe Biden will refuse to debate Donald Trump, a candidate coming out of a brokered convention wouldn't be able to skip an opportunity to face the Republican nominee—they'd need the national exposure.
There are other issues as well.
A new candidate would have a major problem without a national campaign apparatus. Sure, in theory, the Biden campaign could be transitioned into a campaign for a new candidate, but how would that work? You can bet that if Biden is forced out and Kamala Harris is also chucked to the curb, there will be campaign officials and staffers who will leave the campaign out of loyalty to Biden and Harris or will be forced out to be replaced with people the new candidate wants. A rebooted campaign with a new candidate would certainly raise a lot of money quickly, but aside from the rich donor class, how many previous Biden/Harris donors are going to want to donate to the new campaign?
Weeks before the election is not a time to be working out the kinks in a presidential campaign, and the Democratic National Committee has lots of other races to focus on, so they won't exactly be in the best position to rescue the campaign either.
Even the highly popular Michelle Obama couldn’t overcome that.
