J.P. Morgan Analyst Makes Huge Prediction About Biden and 2024

J.P. Morgan analyst Michael Cembalest made a list of "Ten Surprises for 2024,” and the prediction that’s getting the most buzz has nothing to do with the market.

Cembalest claims that Joe Biden will ultimately drop out of the 2024 presidential race. And he knows roughly when it will happen. "President Biden withdraws sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health reasons. Biden passes the torch to a replacement candidate named by the Democratic National Committee,” he predicts.

From @jpmorgan’s Michael Cembalest pic.twitter.com/gsOXq1bUOD

— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) January 8, 2024

There are plenty of reasons why this prediction makes sense. There’s an endless supply of people prognosticating that Joe Biden will drop out. Democrat insiders are pushing for him to drop out. 

Perhaps more importantly, polls have shown for some time now that voters on both sides of the aisle believe that Biden is too old and too physically and mentally incapable to be president. His poll numbers are in the toilet and have been for nearly his entire presidency.

But how likely is it that Joe Biden will actually drop out? Despite all the buzz, I think Cembalest is wrong.

Even before his poll numbers went underwater, it was widely believed that Biden wouldn’t serve out his term. One can imagine that there were plenty of people in the Democrat Party who weren’t happy when he announced his candidacy. 

While there was a lot of speculation prior to his announcement, it was likely that Trump’s candidacy made Biden’s decision for him. Biden has long believed that he’s the only Democrat who can beat Trump. Now, there are plenty of Democrats smarter than Joe Biden who don't think so.

'The greatest concern is that his biggest liability is the one thing he can't change. Among all the unpredictables there is one thing that is sure: the age arrow only points in one direction,” former Obama advisor David Axelrod said back in November. “Only [Joe Biden] can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it's in HIS best interest or the country’s?" 

"Yes, there also is risk associated with changing course now, as there is little time left for a primary campaign — and campaigns are how we test candidates,” he added. "But there is a lot of leadership talent in the Democratic Party, poised to emerge." 

While I think Axelrod is overly optimistic about the Democrats' bench, he is nevertheless right that the longer Biden waits to drop out, the harder it will be for Democrats. The longer Biden stays in the race, the less likely alternative candidates can legally get on the ballot in many states, which makes accumulating the necessary number of delegates to secure the nomination problematic. This is obviously why Cembalest predicted that an alternative candidate would be selected at the Democratic National Convention. 

But even this would still be a disaster for the Democrats. For starters, if Biden were to drop out, it would result in a divisive battle between alternative candidates desperate to slime their way to the nomination, which will be made worse by the fact that Democrat voters won't have an actual say in choosing the nominee. 

The rigged primary of 2016 and the subsequent bad blood would be a happy memory compared to this. Worse yet, if Democrat voters don't know who their nominee is until the final weeks of the campaign, they'll have little time to coalesce behind the candidate chosen by campaign insiders and not themselves. This is why I strongly believe that Biden will be the Democrats' nominee in 2024, absent his incapacitation or death.