You've probably heard by now that on Sunday night, there was some excitement involving Joe Biden, who was on vacation—obviously—in Delaware. After visiting his campaign headquarters, a car crashed into his motorcade.
"While Biden was walking from the campaign office to his waiting armored SUV, a sedan hit a U.S. Secret Service vehicle that was being used to close off intersections near the headquarters for the president's departure," reports the Associated Press. "The sedan then tried to continue into a closed-off intersection, before Secret Service personnel surrounded the vehicle with weapons drawn and instructed the driver to put his hands up."
Joe Biden witnessed the entire thing and had been answering a reporter's question when the incident occurred. This is actually the moment I want to discuss more than the situation with the car. A reporter asked him, "Mr. President, why are you losing to Trump in the polls?"
"You're reading the wrong polls," he told her.
That's when the crash happened. Biden appeared shocked at the sound made by the crashing car, and was quickly ushered into the presidential SUV and then driven back to their home.
Q: Why are you losing in the polls?
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) December 18, 2023
BIDEN: "You're reading the wrong polls"
*crash* pic.twitter.com/VQKeLpZrYK
So, according to Joe Biden, he isn't losing to Trump in the polls; everyone is just reading "the wrong polls."
I'm used to Donald Trump saying something like this, so when Biden says it, I really feel it's necessary to unpack it.
What polls are the "right polls," according to Biden? Donald Trump currently has an average spread of +3.5 in the RealClearPolitics average—his highest lead of the campaign so far. This average is based on the aggregation of the previous ten polls tracked by the site. Notably, Biden only leads in one of these polls—the latest NPR/PBS/Marist poll, where he holds a marginal lead of one point. The most recent Economist/YouGov poll shows him tied with Trump.
All other polls show Trump ahead.
Trump is ahead by two points in both the latest Morning Consult poll and the latest TIPP poll. The latest Harvard/Harris poll shows a four-point lead for Trump, as do the latest Fox News, Emerson, and Wall Street Journal polls. Additionally, Trump leads by six points in the latest HarrisX poll and by a substantial 10 points in the latest Rasmussen poll.
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I remember when Trump would dismiss any poll showing him behind. It wasn't a good look, but it wasn't entirely wrong, either. The polls have historically underestimated Trump's support, so Trump at least had some justification for his accusations. Four years ago, Biden had an average lead in the polls of 4.4 points, and he hasn't led in the RealClearPolitics average since mid-September. Trump's average lead has been trending larger ever since. As such, Biden's claim that only the "wrong polls" depict Trump in the lead necessitates significant cherry-picking and a notable degree of denial.
There is absolutely something different going on this year, and Joe Biden is clearly in denial.
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