It's no secret that Democrats rely on certain demographics to hold onto their power. Women, minorities, and young people tend to be their most loyal voters. However, cracks in their coalition of traditionally left-leaning voters have emerged.
In October, a TIPP poll found that the Biden economy has been “so disastrous to 18-24-year-olds that they may switch their allegiance to former President Trump in 2024 if he clinches the GOP nomination.”
“Many [18-24-year-olds] get their worldviews developed on college campuses, which are vast enclaves of liberalism. Because colleges essentially prohibit conservative speakers’ access, having declared safe zones for students who feel they could become ‘victims of microaggressions,’ few students are interested in understanding the other side of the argument or engaging in rigorous policy debates,” explained TIPP. “Until, of course, things hit their pocketbook.”
What's that demographic's opinion of Biden now? Well, it should come as no surprise that things haven't gotten better. Other polls have shown the same problem. Last month, a poll from NBC found that Biden's lead with young voters has declined significantly since 2020. The survey found that while Biden bested Trump by 20 points with 18-29-year-olds in 2020, Trump has since taken the lead among voters ages 18 to 34 by three points. Granted, Trump's lead was within the poll's margin of error, but as NBC News's Mark Murray noted, "the shift against Biden is not."
Other recent polls showed Biden's advantage with young voters has taken a huge hit as well, with many placing his lead in single digits. Even a CNN poll had Trump ahead of Biden among voters 18-24 by one point.
"Of course, it’s always possible that the polls are wrong," wrote pollster Nate Cohn of the New York Times. "I’ve thought our own polling might be wrong before, and I would be very apprehensive if it were just our poll out on a limb. But this isn’t about one Times/Siena poll: Virtually every poll shows a close race between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump among young voters."
He added, "When dozens of polls all say the same thing, it’s worth taking the polling seriously. It’s easy to remember that the polling can be wrong, but it can be easy to forget that the polling is usually in the ballpark. It’s a losing game to dismiss all polling simply because it doesn’t comport with expectations."
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Cohn believes that in the end, the final results will look different from what polling shows today, but that doesn't mean today's polls are wrong. He's probably correct, and I suspect liberal-leaning young voters are more likely not to turn out than to vote Republican. In fact, a new Harvard survey shows a significant decline in young voter enthusiasm coming into the 2024 election. Though much of that decline is among young Republicans, the study still shows Biden's lead over Trump with the cohort at just 11 points.
Most young adults (69%) who favor President Biden over former President Trump say their vote is more in “opposition to Donald Trump becoming president again” than “support for President Biden and his policies.” In contrast, the inverse holds among Trump supporters, with 65% saying their vote is driven by loyalty to the former president and his policies and 35% in opposition to President Biden’s re-election.
Historically speaking, negative voting (when a person's vote is motivated by opposition to a candidate, not support) is generally a less reliable driver of turnout. That may not have been the case in 2020, but considering the current economic situation, young voters who may not want to vote for Trump will still not want to vote for four more years of economic malaise, either. Barring an unprecedented economic turnaround that Biden can run on, it's hard to see how he motivates young voters who would otherwise vote for him to show up.
