After weeks of being noncommittal about participating in the first 2024 GOP presidential debate, former President Donald Trump is now officially skipping the event.
Instead, Trump is going to be doing a live interview with Tucker Carlson on X (formerly known as Twitter) that may potentially air at the same time as the debate in Milwaukee, which will be broadcast on Fox News.
According to Trump, his lack of participation is merely following precedent.
“Reagan didn’t do it, and neither did others. People know my Record, one of the BEST EVER, so why would I Debate?” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social on Thursday.
But is Trump really just following precedent? One problem with this explanation is that participation in the debate requires a candidate to sign a loyalty pledge affirming that they will support the eventual GOP nominee.
Trump has indicated he won’t do that.
“Why would I sign it?” he asked. “I can name three or four people that I wouldn’t support for president. So right there, there’s a problem.”
Of course, he’s been boasting about his huge lead in the GOP primary polls for months now. By any standard, he’s the runaway frontrunner and is heavily favored to win the GOP nomination. Signing the pledge would essentially be an empty gesture on his part because his lead is so large at this point that he has little to be afraid of. Unless, of course, his refusal to sign the pledge is just a cover for him wanting to avoid his main rival—Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Related: I Don’t Care Who You’re Backing in the GOP Primary, Don’t Pull This Crap
Trump could easily sign the pledge and still opt out of the debate, but he hasn’t done that. The pledge commits candidates to respecting the decision of GOP primary voters and to supporting the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, should they not win the nomination themselves. The pledge also includes a promise not to run as an independent or write-in candidate, nor seek or accept a presidential nomination from any other party. The purpose is to keep the party united in order to defeat Joe Biden for the sake of the country.
Trump recently called on all of his GOP primary opponents to drop out and unite behind him, but he initially singled out DeSantis to do so. There’s a reason for that. Despite Trump’s large lead in the polls, DeSantis has shown impressive fundraising capabilities and significant financial resources. Perhaps even more problematic for Trump is that DeSantis has demonstrated skill in achieving victories that were considered unlikely. So despite his public attacks on DeSantis, I think it’s obvious that Trump isn’t underestimating him or his candidacy and is avoiding him as long as he possibly can.
DeSantis has recently indicated that while he feels Trump did a lot of good for this country, he is still willing to respectfully challenge Trump on his record, namely for his failure to fire Dr. Fauci or drain the swamp, amongst other things. “He actually said he was going to eliminate the national debt. He added eight trillion dollars to the debt. We’ve paid down our debt in Florida. He did more in four years than any president has ever done to expand it. That’s the record we should talk about.”
Polling has shown that a significant portion of Trump’s support comes from swayable GOP primary voters. Trump may think his record speaks for itself, but he must think he has more to lose by showing up, which isn’t exactly a great situation because it gives his opponents an unchallenged opportunity to define his record for him.
He must think that’s a better alternative to showing up.
