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Is Civil War Inevitable?

AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit

It is not uncommon, when stories involving Antifa, collegiate and/or paid protestors or climate activists come up, for one or more commenters to opine that said lunatics had best not ply their trade in the commenter's town or they will be met with all deliberate force. Readers are exhorted to stock up on ammo.

If civil war is to rear its ugly head, it will most likely start in Europe and the UK. Writing for news.com.au, Frank Chung talks about an article by David Betz, the professor of War in the Modern World in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London: 

In the latest edition of Military Strategy Magazine, Professor Betz argued that Western governments are "losing the ability to peacefully manage multicultural societies", leaving them vulnerable to widespread disorder and potential civil war. He added: "The initial result is an accelerating descent of multiple major cities into marginally 'feral' status".

 In a striking part of his essay, Professor Betz has forecasted that "countries that are most likely to experience the outbreak of violent civil conflict are Britain and France" - cautioning that other European nations and the United States might not be immune to such risks.

 He also warned: "It must be assumed that if civil war breaks out in one place it is likely to spread elsewhere".

You can read the entire piece here.

Of course, it will probably arrive in the same way here. Even if one were obtuse enough to miss the depredations of imported gang members, human and drug traffickers, and anti-Jewish terrorists who sometimes masquerade as activists, one cannot avoid the fact that the Left has found a Trojan Horse in illegal immigrants to advance an agenda. And illegal aliens are just one tip in a multi-pronged attack that includes the trans agenda, attacking DOGE (before the split between Musk and DJT), and college students championing Hamas. Or whatever they are riled about at the moment. 

And this, of course, is not the days of yore when various, hirsute, unwashed, and bug-eyed activists would march around shrieking "Hey Hey! Ho Ho! Fill-in-The Blank-Has-Got-To-Go!" You'll recall the Summer of Floyd, various Antifa incursions, the Free, Free Palestine madness, not to mention the abomination in Boulder. These people are not possessed of cogent minds or a basic grounding in logic, but they are organized and well-funded:

ICE agents are being met with serious resistance as Leftists don their masks and capes to protect illegal immigrant ones, even those of a violent, sex, and drug trafficking nature, because conservatives are fascists. In Minneapolis on Tuesday, activists took to the streets to confront ICE agents, aflame with outrage that there was a raid taking place. In reality, it was an investigation. They may be beyond reason, but they are not beyond violence. Normal, clear-thinking people are noticing, and they are getting tired of putting up with it. 

While the Democrats may take every opportunity to haul out their lutes and sing "The Ballad of January 6th," for the most part, conservatives have shown remarkable constraint, especially when compared to what the denizens of the Left have demonstrated. People sense that chaos is the endgame. They are growing weary of chaos. The day may come when someone decides that the Antifa protestors need to be taught a lesson. Maybe they will finally grow sick and tired of Keffiyeh Studies majors and the rest of the Hamas network spreading their version of insanity across the landscape. Perhaps one day, a bottle or brick will be tossed, and one will be tossed back. Hands may be thrown, and someone may draw down. It only takes one instance. 

Before we start saying, "Bring it on!" there are two factors to consider.

One factor is that in the original Civil War, the sides were delineated by the Mason-Dixon Line. To a large degree, there was a strong correlation between ideology and geography. But even then, as historian Bruce Catton once noted, not everyone on either side of the line was of the same mind. Some favored slavery and secession. Others held that there should be abolition without secession. Some favored abolition and secession.  And, of course, some were opposed to slavery and secession. Not everyone fits neatly on one side of the political spectrum or the other. Utah is, for the most part, a red state, although that is changing. I can drive less than an hour and arrive in the middle of two cities whose residents would declare me a heretic and anathema. In my little town, there is no shortage of Pride/Progress flags. Conservatives may grouse about New York City or the West Coast, but there is no way to tell the opposition, "You crazy people stay on your side of the line and we'll stay on ours." It would be well nigh impossible to draw battle lines. It's easy to keep an eye on the people in black bloc rattling their clubs. But Mohamed Sabry Soliman came out of nowhere. 

Another factor is that since Appomattox, the United States has not experienced a civil war. In the 20th and early 21st centuries, our understanding of civil war was largely shaped by images and news reports from other countries. Those stories may have been awful, but they weren't happening here. Ken Burns's epic documentary certainly shed new light on the Civil War, and perhaps romanticized it for some. But unless you've seen the pictures of the bodies at Gettysburg and elsewhere, it is hard to understand the human toll that war took. And even if we do take the time to look them up, we view them through the remote lens of history. 

My great-great-grandfather was a farmer in Indiana when the Civil War started. He enlisted in the Union army. In his letters, he eloquently described fighting all day to take a single ridge and remarked upon "this iron hail that flies above our heads day and night." His aspirations for a successful post-war career and retirement as a gentleman farmer came to an abrupt end when he took a Confederate Minié ball to the leg. In those days, there was often only one cure for such a wound. My grandmother recalled being terrified of him, describing him as an angry, bitter, and frightening old man in a wheelchair. 

We really don't understand what a civil war would look like, and it might serve us well to be careful when discussing the subject. Is it inevitable? Perhaps. It may take just one moment at a demonstration or riot, or an exchange that gets out of control and sets off a chain reaction across the country.  

I say this as a former Leftist: People like Jasmine Crockett, AOC, and David Hogg may be the forward faces of the Democratic Party. Although they are caricatures and easy to lampoon, there are extremely smart, patient, and crafty people lurking behind them. Again, chaos is the endgame here. Those people understand that if there is enough violence and misery, decent people may grow tired of the uncertainty of liberty and self-determination and accept whatever alternative for peace and quiet is offered to them, no matter how odious.

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