Finally, after the non-stop drumbeat of commercials cluttering the airwaves, and at last, after the deluge of commercial mailers flooding our mailboxes, today is the day South Carolinians make a choice. Today, we get a little closer to finding out who will go to Washington, D.C., to fill the six-year U.S. Senate term left open after the sudden July death of Sen. Lindsey Graham.
My kitchen counter last week: pic.twitter.com/CWcLeWDxTJ
— Jennifer Rust (@JRue66) August 10, 2026
I say "a little closer” because it is almost certain no one will win today’s race outright. Ten candidates are splitting the vote, and as of yesterday (Aug. 10), Sen. Darline Graham comes closest with only 26.4%. There’s still over 5% undecided, beating out five of the candidates. With Trafalgar Group's margin of error of 2.9%, any one of three candidates could be the second person in the run-off scheduled for Aug. 25.
BREAKING: Final @trafalgar_group SC GOP 2026 Special Election for US Senate Tracking Poll (8/8-10)
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) August 11, 2026
1027 Respondents
2.9 MOE
26.4% @DarlineGrahamSC
19.5% @RalphNorman
18.4% @RussellFrySC
18.3% @MarkSanford
7.5% @MarkLynchSC
1.5% @dannyleefordII
1.1% Duke Buckner
0.8%… pic.twitter.com/6fUWzr6qpJ
Kalshi Politics gives Sen. Darline Graham a 94% chance of making the runoff. That seems natural, with her name recognition and endorsement from President Trump. More interestingly, Kalshi gives Rep. Ralph Norman a 60% chance of making the runoff, with Rep. Russell Fry at only 35% odds and Mark Sanford lagging at 6%.
Monday night, Trump gave Sen. Darline Graham one last push. Graham held a 15-minute "tele-rally" by phone, in which she spoke briefly of the honor of having Trump's endorsement before quickly turning the phone call over to the president. He spoke of how proud he was of Lindsey and how Darline is the perfect person to continue her brother's work. "She’s tough! She looks so nice, but she’s tough. She’s the perfect person to carry on Lindsey’s legacy," Trump said. "She fully supports the Trump agenda and will help us achieve our mission of making America great again."
Related: New Joint Base Lindsey Graham Honors Late Senator’s Defense Legacy
Personally, I’m not sure if I can take two more weeks of non-stop commercials. The “Fry Guys,” as one wag dubbed the Fry campaign, is placing spots on YouTube. That means I can’t even watch the Ruthless podcast in peace. Smart ad placement? Yes. Annoying? A resounding yes.
My friend and colleague Stephen Kruiser shared his opinion with me about all the campaign spending when I sent him a picture of all the flyers on my counter. “Direct mail is the biggest rip-off that consultant grifters talk campaigns into,” he texted. That means the Sanford, Graham, and Fry campaigns have hooked up some consultant with some sweet cash.
The money has flowed in this short, short race. According to AdImpact Politics, a company that tracks ads on TV, digital, and streaming for political campaigns, candidates and their super PACs have poured almost $5 million into advertising for this race in just one month. It’s the most ever spent on a special primary in South Carolina’s history.
The #SCSen special primary has seen $4.7M in ad spending.
— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) August 10, 2026
-Darline Graham leads in total ad support.
-President Trump has been featured in 59% of broadcast ad airings.
-The most expensive #SCPol special primary on record.
Dive deeper with our blog: https://t.co/PfJjcZJ0mE pic.twitter.com/KybjjyaF0x
No wonder I’m so exhausted from the commercials. After the next two weeks, I’ll have a special place in my heart for all those swing state voters who endure these media campaigns every four years.
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