Iran In Limbo

With America’s foreign policy adrift, Austin Bay spots an Iran in Limbo:

As Americans celebrate the Fourth of July, Iran enters limbo, an uncertain yet perilous period of time separating anger-driven demonstrations from either bloody tyrannical repression or sustained popular struggle producing a liberalizing revolution.

Frustration, righteous anger and bitterness powered Iran’s post-election demonstrations. These emotions are also fuel for revolution. Toppling Iran’s corrupt Khomeinist regime, however, requires leadership, organization and time — in other words, calculated assessments and cool political war-fighting skills disciplining the emotional fires of outrage and disaffection.

American independence required a field army, ragtag force though it was. Anger may lead to enlistments, but it doesn’t solve supply problems. Anger fades when you freeze at Valley Forge; superior leadership — leading by immediate example and demanding sacrifice to achieve common goals — turns anger into long-term commitment.

It is possible the Iranian people aren’t ready for the sustained sacrifice revolution against murderous tyrants requires. Confronting riot police and armed pro-regime gangs demands courage and a corporate willingness to accept casualties, meaning dead friends in the street. When and where this threshold is reached, then crossed, is a psychological and historical mystery, a gray rainbow of escalation — hence limbo.

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