Let the Real Fireworks Begin
Now that both conventions have wrapped up, the real part of the United States presidential campaign begins.
Sure, it’s a weird one. Usually, the regular folk in the electorate would have just spent the summer doing American summer things and blissfully avoiding political news. Shutdown times are giving Americans more time on their hands to wander into the psyche-wrecking minefield that is political news. There are probably more people engaged in the process than under normal circumstances but it’s still the post-convention time, when the majority of the people begin to pay more attention to the election and the candidates.
One would think that neither candidate needs to introduce himself to the American public, of course. Both have been in the public eye for half a century or so. The Democrats, however, are running a Joe Biden who — as I pointed out in my latest column — doesn’t exist in real life. They are now tasked with selling the public on this cuddly best-pal empathetic fictitious version of Grandpa Gropes. That will be made somewhat easier by making sure Mommy Jill keeps him duct-taped to the recliner in the basement and away from the real campaign trail.
Yeah, that’s harsh and a bit over the top but you know every Democrat in America is nodding on the inside and agreeing with me.
There have been some extraordinary factors working against President Trump this election year, obviously. The one-two punch of the Wuhan Chinese bat flu and the Barack Obama legacy riots put his campaign on the ropes for a while. Most Trump supporters have remained optimistic. I, however, have been manning the Gloom and Doom shop over here in Election Prediction Acres. There have, as of late, been tiny rays of sunshine breaking through my perma-clouds.
The Republican National Convention should give the president quite a bit of momentum, even if it isn’t immediately reflected in the polls. The media has been lying about the RNC all week and will continue to do so, portraying it as a dark affair, which, of course, is what the DNC was.
There were powerful, somber moments at the RNC, but for the most part, it was a celebration by and for Americans who love America.
You’re never going to get that vibe from the Democrats.
Axios — which can be hit or miss — published an article earlier in the week with some good news for Trump supporters:
It feels like August of 2016 all over again. Polls show Donald Trump losing big. Pundits proclaim he can’t win. Reporters sneer at Trump voters on Twitter and cable.
Why it matters: There are several signs that should give the Trump-is-toast self-assured pause.
- He’s doing better in some swing-state polls than he was at this point in 2016. And his floor of support holds strong, regardless of what he says or does.
- Not only is the stock market on fire, but a lot of blue-collar workers in building, plumbing and other manual crafts are doing quite well, too.
Trump’s big bet is that there are a lot of working class voters, especially in rural areas, who did not vote in 2016 but will this time.
Trump is still fighting hard for the swing states. The RNC featured workers from Minnesota and Wisconsin. Speakers frequently reminded Pennsylvania voters that their native son’s stance on fossil fuels would ruin their economy. The mere fact that Minnesota is even in the conversation is a good sign.
One big key to Trump’s success in 2016 was his willingness to fight in states where Republicans would generally give a half-hearted effort and that Democrats would take for granted. The GOP used to act as if Ohio were the only swing state worth pursuing and all but ignore Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
More from Axios:
Remember: A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll found 13% of voters remain “in play,” enough to tip the election.
- It also found Trump’s standing with Hispanics is as good if not better than 2016 — and had improved his image by 20 points among whites, who are more than 70% of the electorate.
The Real Clear Politics average currently has Biden up by 7.1, a number that’s been shrinking for several weeks. That 13% looks even better the more the race tightens.
The civil unrest in Democrat-run cities is a real vulnerability for Biden. The fact that Kenosha erupted during the RNC made the convention’s “law and order” message seem all the more urgent.
As weird as everything has been this year, who knows what other curve balls might get thrown at this election. At the moment, however, things are looking better for the president than they did even a month ago.
Now he can put his foot on the gas while Sleepy Joe nibbles graham crackers in his jammies.
PJ Media Senior Columnist and Associate Editor Stephen Kruiser is the author of “Don’t Let the Hippies Shower” and “Straight Outta Feelings: Political Zen in the Age of Outrage,” both of which address serious subjects in a humorous way. Monday through Friday he edits PJ Media’s “Morning Briefing.” His columns appear twice a week.