I’ve written quite a bit lately about the changes that are happening in college athletics. The transfer portal and name, image, and likeness (NIL) have already sent ripples through the college sports world, while conference realignment on a massive scale will take place next season and shake up college athletics even more.
In 2024, Texas and Oklahoma will join the Southeastern Conference (SEC), which will also eliminate divisions (something other conferences have done as well). Side note: the SEC is ending its longstanding broadcasting relationship with CBS at the end of this season, which means we won’t have to put up with Gary Danielson anymore!
But the biggest news coming out of college football is the decimation of the Pac-12 conference. The once-storied conference will dwindle from 12 to two members for the 2024 season — unless its leadership makes some bold moves.
The University of Oregon, the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA,) the University of Southern California (USC), and the University of Washington are joining the Big Ten next year, while the University of Arizona, Arizona State University, the University of Colorado, and the University of Utah are moving to the Big 12. The University of California and Stanford are heading to the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) — because why not add some teams from the Pacific Coast to the ACC?
The dismantling of the Pac-12, which will only consist of Oregon State University and Washington State University if nothing else changes before 2024, has affected the discussions surrounding 2024’s other big change: the 12-team College Football Playoff. The new playoff format was the big news before all the conference realignment scrambling began, and the CFP Committee was already looking at tweaks to the format for future years. The gutting of the Pac-12 has put those talks on hold.
Related: College Football Playoff Officially Announces Expansion to 12 Teams in 2024-25
“The College Football Playoff management committee shelved any talk of format changes to the expanded 12-team field that will begin next season, opting instead to continue to wait to see what the future of the gutted Pac-12 will look like, CFP executive director Bill Hancock said Wednesday,” reports Heather Dinich at ESPN.
The future of the Pac-12 is the driver behind pausing the discussions. Needless to say, a two-team conference can’t be sustainable, especially since the Pac-12 is one of the elite “Power 5” conferences.
“The NCAA gives conferences a two-year grace period when they no longer meet membership requirements before changes are needed, but the notion of a two-team league competing in the CFP has its decision-makers in a holding pattern on the future format,” Dinich writes.
Hancock called the Pac-12 situation “the most unthinkable” development he has seen in his decades of athletic administration, and, while he said a two-team conference was unprecedented, it “doesn’t mean there can’t be” one. At the same time, Hancock “wouldn’t speculate on whether the CFP would still recognize the winner of a two-team league.”
One CFP management committee member said that the meetings haven’t included discussion on the Pac-12’s prospects, but certain moves the conference might make could jeopardize its Power 5 status. One option for the Pac-12 is to merge with the Mountain West Conference, a Group of 5 conference, which is the second tier of college athletics conferences.
Dinich reports:
There’s still a possibility the Mountain West schools merge with the Pac-12 to try to benefit from its brand and possible assets, but that opens the controversial and subjective question of whether the Pac-12 would still be considered a Power 5 conference, which gets the benefit of 80% of the CFP revenue. The Group of 5 schools receive 20%.
According to the NCAA bylaws, an FBS conference needs at least eight full FBS members that satisfy all bowl subdivision requirements. A conference’s status as an autonomy [sic] conference is determined by the Division I board of directors.
The bulk of last week’s discussions centered on television packages for the 12-team playoff format, including streaming options, as well as host cities for the championship game beyond the first three years, which have solid host cities. But the format remains up in the air beyond the first two years.
The playoff format for the first two years is 6+6: the six highest-ranked conference champions along with the six highest-ranked non-champion teams. As Dinich explains, “If the Pac-12 dissolves, or loses its status as a Power 5 conference, keeping a 6+6 model for the next two years would allow guaranteed access for two Group of 5 champions. The current model was agreed upon before realignment decimated the Pac-12.”
Changing the format for the first two years takes a unanimous vote of the committee members, and that’s not likely to happen. The format change that has gotten the bulk of the attention has been a 5+7 format: the five highest-ranked conference champions along with the seven highest-ranked non-champion teams. That’s where the discussion is likely to shift if the Pac-12 falls apart or moves to the Group of 5 level. Until then, all eyes are on what’s left of the Pac-12 to see what will happen.
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