The British electorate is changing. After July’s “Potemkin landslide” in which Labour won an astonishing number of states — many by mere pluralities — as voters chose change for the sake of change, Britons are starting to sour on their new leaders.
I noted earlier this month that polling showed that Reform UK, a genuinely conservative new party (as opposed to the Conservatives, who are closer to Labour than they want to admit) is gaining ground. Another survey shows that British voters support Donald Trump’s policies — sort of.
In joint polling conducted by the advisory firm Nepean, we explored how much of a potential audience there is out there for a Trump-style narrative and agenda in the UK – and potentially even some policies.
— Opinium (@OpiniumResearch) January 27, 2025
You can find the tables here: https://t.co/UibVeJOg3L
The poll included a little trickeration, as the National Pulse reports.
“British voters support several key policies associated with U.S. President Donald J. Trump,” writes Jack Montgomery. “An Opinium poll involving 2,000 participants surveyed opinions on 16 statements derived from Trump’s inauguration speech, adapted to a British context—and without President Trump’s name attached—finding huge support for a ‘Britain First’ platform.”
Related: New Polling Show UK's Real Conservatives on the Rise
Over half of those surveyed agreed with Trumpian statements about curbing immigration. Thirty-five percent strongly agreed, and 23% somewhat agreed, while 12% each strongly disagreed and somewhat disagreed. When it came to putting Trump’s assertion that the Biden administration prioritized illegals over Americans in a British context, 63% agreed compared to 26% who disagreed.
Fifty-three percent agreed with statements about curbing government censorship, while 26% disagreed. Keep in mind that the UK doesn’t have provisions like the First Amendment to protect speech. Additionally, 56% supported protective tariffs.
Just over half — 51% — supported the statement that there are only two sexes, although 32% disagreed. Another slight majority of 53% supported getting rid of DEI policies.
Maybe there’s a little dirty pool involved in this survey — after all, we don’t know if pollsters told voters at the end of the survey that they were backing Trump’s statements — but it’s interesting to see that Britons are demonstrating support for policies that fly in the face of the policies that Labour (and often the Conservatives) have offered in recent years. This comes as Reform UK is announcing even more encouraging poll numbers:
🚀 Britain needs Reform.
— Reform UK (@reformparty_uk) January 24, 2025
➡️ https://t.co/PXAEd8j45A pic.twitter.com/doKQCOvuO7
What’s the lesson from these numbers? The main one is that British politicians aren’t delivering the kind of message that Donald Trump does, which is a message that resonates with voters.
“People dismiss Trumpian politics out of hand and assume we are miles apart, but this study shows we need to pay attention to how people think and feel about the UK. We are closer than we think,” said Gavin Davis, managing partner of Nepean, a strategic communications firm.
“While Trump’s policies are rightly scrutinised, it’s his mastery of narrative and storytelling that stands out – the polling suggests British politicians could benefit from taking a page from his playbook when advancing their own policy agenda,” said James Crouch, the head of policy and public affairs research at Opinium.
Maybe the British public is changing more than we think. Seeing the rise of Reform UK and the support for cloaked versions of Trump’s policies gives me some hope.
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