[NOTE: I’ve added Houston TV links to the sidebar at right, including another four-streams-in-one page, just like during Gustav. … I’ve also added NOAA’s tidal gauges page, which will be worth watching as the surge rolls in.]
Infrared “rainbow” satellite view, 9:45 PM EDT. Live loop here.
Ike’s surface wind field as of 11:00 PM EDT. Full graphic here.
The National Hurricane Center’s 11:00 PM EDT discussion indicates that eyewall contraction is not imminent, and suggests that forecasters no longer expect much strengthening of Hurricane Ike’s winds before landfall:
IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH…SIZE…AND STRUCTURE THIS EVENING. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS NOT RID ITSELF OF WHAT REMAINS OF THE OLD INNER EYEWALL…BUT RECON SHOWS THAT WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT FEATURE. INSTEAD…DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS [I.E., THE OUTER EYEWALL] IS EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER OUT THAN BEFORE…NOW ABOUT 80 N MI. . . . THE CENTER OF IKE WILL REMAIN OVER WATER FOR A LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS…PROVIDING THE CYCLONE SOME OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE SLOWLY-CHANGING STRUCTURE ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING…AND NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE EXPLICITLY FORECASTS IKE TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING…AND THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ARE NOT EXACTLY COLD…SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT IKE COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST.
Possible, but not probable. The official forecast brings Ike’s winds up to 110 mph — high-end Category 2 — at landfall on Galveston Island in the wee hours of Saturday morning.
I gotta hand it to Alan Sullivan: he was right, it seems, about Ike. High winds are not going to be the primary issue. But, as I wrote below, the storm surge will still be enormous. Coastal residents, do not treat this storm like a typical Category 2! The Gulf of Mexico is about to temporarily reclaim a large chunk of prime Texas real estate. If you’re in a surge zone, this is no time to hunker down and complacently recall the names of all the previous storms you’ve successfully weathered, or confidently assert that Ike will turn right, like Rita did. (It might. But you don’t know that. No one does.) This is the time to move inland, to higher ground. Get out of Ike’s way!
P.S. Eric Berger has more.
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