PJM/CrossTarget Poll: Boxer, Brown in Trouble in CA

A poll taken Sunday, June 13th, showed Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown in a statistical tie with their respective opponents, Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman. (Full results are here[pdf].)

The poll, conducted via telephone for Pajamas Media by CrossTarget, was of 600 likely California voters, and has a margin of error of 4%. The CrossTarget poll was an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) poll, using the same technology and methods as the polls CrossTarget conducted for PJM in the Massachusetts election in January, in which PJM/CrossTarget was one of the first to predict Scott Brown’s election.

In the California gubernatorial election, Brown led Whitman by about 3%, with a 4% margin of error.

Brown           46.4%

Whitman      43.3%

Undecided    10.3%

In the senatorial race, Fiorina actually led Boxer by 0.5%, well within the margin of error but showing that Fiorina is a very serious challenger.

Boxer             46.5%

Fiorina           47.0%

Undecided    6.5%

In a surprise result, party affiliation reported by respondents showed a 3% majority for the GOP; these results were adjusted to match the usual proportion of a 7% Democrat majority. If party identification has really shifted by 10% toward the GOP in California, this would have dramatic implications for the election in California and for the United States as a whole.

Details of Sunday’s PJM/CrossTarget poll follow:

Q: Thinking about the general election for Governor. The candidates are Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman. If the election were today who would you vote for? If Jerry Brown press 1. If Meg Whitman press 2. If you are undecided press 3.

1. Jerry Brown 46.4%

2. Meg Whitman 43.3%

3. Undecided 10.3%

Q: Thinking about the general election for United States Senate. The candidates are Barbara Boxer and Carly Fiorina. If the election were today who would you vote for? If Barbara Boxer press 1. If Carly Fiorina press 2. If you are undecided press 3.

1. Barbara Boxer 46.5%

2. Carly Fiorina 47.0%

3. Undecided 6.5%

Q: Only a small percentage of all voters will cast a ballot in the general election this November. How likely is it that you will actually vote in the election on November 2nd? If you will definitely vote press 1. If you might or might not vote press 2. If you probably won’t vote press 3.