This week, we were reminded of how quickly the presidential nomination horse race can change. A politician who one week looked like a sure thing to at least make it to the debate stage can, the next week, look like someone who might not even run. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is one such example.
I wrote an article in December 2025, "AOC vs. Newsom: Who’s Really Leading the 2028 Democratic Race?" that looked at veteran political journalist Mark Halperin's list of Democratic contenders for the 2028 nomination. Newsom was at the top because of one thing: momentum. He had built that momentum not through effective leadership — like once-promising Republican presidential candidates Scott Walker in Wisconsin and Rudy Giuliani in New York City — but through fundraising and receiving the shadow-president treatment from the Democratic Party and its allies in the media. However, like his pal Pedro Sánchez — the socialist prime minister in Spain who shares Newsom's "straight-out-of-central-casting" good looks and uses opposition to Donald Trump as a political foil — Newsom is finding out that corruption can destroy one's political fortunes.
Now that the Department of Justice is investigating Newsom and his wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom, over their "financial hanky-panky," as PJ Media's Stephen Green describes it, Halperin thinks the governor will decide not to run for president. On his 2Way podcast, Halperin this week explained why he believes the investigation poses such a problem for Newsom:
I can tell you from Californians who are Democrats who do not want JD Vance or Marco Rubio to be president. This is a real investigation. There may be political elements to it, but there is a there there in this investigation. And I think whether Mrs. Newsom is indicted or not that this will be another caution to the family about what it would mean to their lives and their young kids if they get into this race.
While Newsom currently leads the Polymarket odds for the Democratic presidential nomination at 24%, it is Kamala Harris who tops the RealClearPolitics polling average, running 10 points ahead of Newsom, who is in second place. However, as Halperin notes, there is no shortage of doubters who believe that the failed 2024 presidential nominee is unlikely to get another shot at the nomination. So who might fill the vacuum if that's the case? Halperin says it could be Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a favorite of Nancy Pelosi, the Obamas, and the Clintons.
After Halperin played Shapiro’s newest ad, Townhall Media’s Larry O’Connor had a good chuckle over the fact that all the men the 5 ft 8 governor stands next to appear to be his height, while still acknowledging it as an effective ad focused on investments in apprenticeship programs. Halperin’s other guest, Democratic strategist Kevin Walling, agreed and said he could see the pragmatic donor class turning to a governor with a 60% approval rating in a battleground state, prompting Halperin to quip: "Yeah, so pragmatic they bet on a short Jew."
That raises an important question: could a party with a growing antisemitism problem really choose a Jew as presidential nominee? O'Connor explained the challenge Shapiro is up against being a member of an increasingly radical party whose nominee for U.S. Senate election in Maine has a Nazi tattoo:
The reality the Democrats have to face is that they have two donor classes. They've got that donor class, which is the Biden Clinton traditional donor class. They've also got the, as you always point out, Mark, the small donor, you know, monthly giving, you know, grassroots donors. That's where the power is right now. And the problem is everything that Grant Platner says about Susan Collins, everything Bernie Sanders says about Susan Collins, they could say about Josh Shapiro. And if there is a candidate to fill that space in the Democrat primaries, they'll be getting all of that money. And that's where the conflict comes in for the party.
Revealed: The Platner Problem Exposes a Democratic Party Divided Against Itself
Shapiro currently sits at 6.4% in the RealClearPolitics average, behind not only Harris and Newsom, but also Pete Buttigieg (12.6%) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (11.1%). Surprisingly, there are two other Jews in the top 10: Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (3.5%) and Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) (1.8%). Halperin commented:
I’m telling you, ladies and gentlemen, there may be five Jewish candidates for the Democratic Party at a time when the conventional wisdom and the belief of many of you is the party will not nominate someone who’s Jewish. You have to deal with the reality. If there are four or five Jews on the debate stage, it’s going to be addressed. It’s going to be dealt with.
Share your predictions in the comments — or if you think it’s still too early to make confident calls on who the 2028 nominee will be.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
Help PJ Media continue to report on the Democrats’ radicalism and inform voters as our nation faces a crossroads. Join PJ Media VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member