[UPDATE: Welcome, InstaPundit readers! For the very latest info on Hanna and Ike, please visit the Weather Nerd homepage.]
First of all, I apologize for the long delay between updates. I’m feeling a bit under the weather (no pun intended) and, as a result, have been slacking on my hurricane-blogging duties. Sorry!
Anyway: Tropical Storm Hanna has regained its tropical-storm street cred, shedding the “subtropical” characteristics that had earned the scorn of some weatherbloggers yesterday. It will make landfall around midnight tonight, and wallop much of the East Coast tomorrow and early Sunday. Tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings cover a wide area, from Georgia to Massachusetts:
Here’s the official forecast track, which has it near Long Island by 2:00 AM Sunday. You can get the official forecast for conditions in your area from the NHC’s Hurricane Local Statements page.
Although it still won’t be a major disaster, Hanna is no longer just a glorified nor’easter. Alan Sullivan, who wrote yesterday morning that “if NHC were truly in the hurricane business, it would deem Hanna extratropical,” changed his tune last night, writing:
If present convective configuration persists until morning, the storm could hit the coastal waters with more force than I expected. In fact, I was premature in writing Hanna off as a tropical system. It seems to be reforming a core, and I am now quite sure it will be a minimal hurricane at landfall. Look out, Cape Lookout.
He reiterated that prognosis this afternoon:
Hanna is almost a hurricane, and it will be at landfall. As I said earlier, look out, Cape Lookout. Hanna has recovered tropical characteristics. It has formed a new core, and it is feasting on the Gulf Stream. For a small area of the coast, right at the point of landfall, Hanna will be quite nasty. … The acceleration of forward speed means a stronger storm sooner for the Chesapeake Bay area.
Dr. Jeff Masters, for his part, wrote at 4:44 PM EDT:
Radar animations from the Charleston, SC radar show that Hanna does not have an eyewall, so this will limits its intensification potential. … [But] wind shear has fallen from 20 knots to 15 knots this afternoon, which may allow Hanna to intensify slightly before landfall. Visible satellite loops of Hanna show a much more symmetric and well-organized system, and Hanna will may start building an eyewall in the next few hours. However, it doesn’t have much time to do so, and the strongest it can get is a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds.
Officially, as of 5:00 PM EDT, Hanna is just under hurricane strength with 70 mph maximum sustained winds. She has two more chances to be upgraded to a hurricane before landfall: at the 8:00 PM intermediate advisory, and at the 11:00 PM full advisory. As always, these advisories will be available at the National Hurricane Center website.
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Meanwhile, as expected, Hurricane Ike has weakened today, to a low-end Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. However, the storm’s core is holding together, at least for now, as you can see on satellite. If that continues, strengthening — perhaps even rapid intensification back to a Cat. 4 monster — is likely later in the weekend, once the current wind shear diminishes.
The two scenarios most likely to prevent, or limit, significant re-intensification would be if: 1) the shear, over the course of the next day, significantly disrupts the organization of Ike’s core, which would likely slow the pace of re-organization once the shear abates (as we saw with Gustav in the Gulf); or 2) land interaction with Cuba further disrupts the storm.
At present, however, the forecast track does not predict the second scenario, and Dr. Masters wrote in a live chat earlier today that “there’s a very good chance [Ike] will ‘shoot the gap’ between Cuba and S. Florida.” As for the first scenario, Ike’s core looks, if anything, better organized in the past few hours. Again quoting Dr. Masters from the live chat: “Remember how Gustav weakened and never recovered? That is possible with Ike, but I’d rate it only 20% likely that Ike won’t regain Cat 4 status in the future.” He gives Ike a slightly higher chance — 20-30% — of becoming a Category 5.
With regard to Ike’s likely U.S. target, the track has shifted left, and the storm is now a greater threat to the Gulf coast than previously thought. It’s too early to get overly exercised about that (we’re talking about a 5-7 day forecast at this point), but the more immediate worry is for the Florida Keys, which have been listed as the country’s third most vulnerable area to a hurricane strike (New Orleans is first). In the words of Dr. Masters: “If Ike misses Cuba, . . . the Keys can expect a major Category 3 or higher hurricane.” He adds:
The Florida Keys are highly vulnerable to hurricanes, and are at great risk from Ike. With only one road connecting the Keys to the mainland, 48-72 hours are required to evacuate the Keys. Tropical storm force winds can be expected in the Keys as early as Monday night, which means officials in the Keys may need to start ordering evacuations on Saturday morning. This would likely begin as an evacuation of visitors and tourists.
Of course, it’s not just the Keys that need to be concerned. The entire Florida peninsula is within the “cone of uncertainty,” and all Floridians, especially South Floridians, should be watching Ike closely this weekend. Hurricane Watches are likely by Sunday, and although nothing is certain, this storm could be a major disaster — for somebody — early next week.
As for why the track has shifted to the left, Dr. Masters explains:
The trough of low pressure expected to turn Ike to the north is, in general, weaker and slower moving than originally forecast, resulting in a delayed turn by Ike to the north. Several models–the UKMET, ECMWF, and Canadian–forecast the trough will not pull Ike to the north at all, and the storm will track west-northwest into the middle of the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. The other models–NOGAPS, GFS, HWRF, and GFDL–all foresee a turn to the north, but this turn is delayed until Ike reaches the Keys. All of these scenarios look bad for the Florida Keys, and there is a high probability the Keys will have to be evacuated. . . .
Once the storm reaches the Keys, we have three models that turn Ike to the north, resulting in a Gulf Coast landfall along the west coast of Florida. Ike’s path and intensity could well imitate those of Hurricane Donna of 1960, which blasted through the Keys as a Category 4 hurricane, then up the west coast of Florida.
It is also possible that the trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to turn Ike to the north, and that the storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico. A second trough of low pressure would then turn Ike north later in the week, resulting in an eventual landfall on the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Texas. This is the forecast of the ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models. It is too early to speculate where on the Gulf Coast Ike would hit.
As Masters put it in the aforementioned live chat, “Pretty much every spot on the entire Gulf Coast has had a model run that takes Ike there. The atmophere is too chaotic to make a skilled forecast more than 4 days out on Ike.”
P.S. Another important note from the live chat: “Ike will grow in size in coming days, and be about 2/3 Katrina size by the time it gets to the Keys. This will be a bigger hurricane than Andrew was.”
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