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Nah Nah Nah Nah Nah Nah Nah Nah Hey Hey Hey Good Riddance?

April 16th, 2014 - 11:32 am

Predicting the collapse of North Korea is a fool’s game — and one I never tire of playing. So with that, let’s play along today with Christopher Lee:

Kim Jong Un is defined by many as an egotistical fanatic whose recklessness led to dreadful mistakes during his two year tenure. First, instead of implementing a sound plan to alleviate the mass hunger and poverty in his nation where the average annual income is $1,800, he continues to conduct costly missile research, development, and test launches. To support his weapons programs, Kim spends approximately $10 billion – about 25 percent of total GDP – on his military. The $3.2 billion spent on nuclear weapons and missile development over the years is equivalent to three years’ supply of food for North Korea’s citizens.

Second, on April 8, 2013, Kim broke his partnership with South Korea regarding their joint venture in the Kaesong Industrial Park. This action further severed ties between North and South Korea and cost North Korea 53,000 jobs and wage losses amounting to $245.7 million. South Korea paid workers’ salaries directly to the North Korean government, so this loss of revenue further bankrupted North Korea.

Third, and above all, Kim’s most flawed and dangerous decision was the recent purge and public pillory of Jang Song Thaek. This action not only destroyed the image of unity in his regime, but also inadvertently acknowledged the dissension and instability within the state-run government. It strained his nation’s alliance with its closest ally, China, who was working closely with Jang in an effort to convince a determinedly opposed Kim to adopt to a China-style economic reform.

Combined, these instances demonstrate a realistic probability that this authoritarian regime may potentially crumble in the near future.

That third item is the key. As we’ve discussed here before, the ruling clique needs the carrot and the stick, or the whole thing falls apart. Oftentimes rather suddenly.

That’s why I say it’s a fool’s game. Outsiders have no way of knowing who is making overtures to China or who is getting ready to flee or which security services colonel (it’s almost always a colonel) thinks it’s time to “save” his country via firing squad.

But then it happens, or all at once.

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All Comments   (2)
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Much (all) depends on the strength of grip on the 'Stick'.
That and the quality and strength of the opposition.
All that said, in reality Lil' Kim is more likely to be violently replaced by someone from the Party/Army who at a minimum is 1000% more capable while being a true believer in the PDRK cause.

The only real possibility for change that I see would be for us (U.S.) and South Korea to strike a deal with China to seal their border and allow South Korea to Re-Unify the peninsula. That would be a good deal for all concered. Might have to sweeten the pot a bit but the payoff would be worth it in the long run.
45 weeks ago
45 weeks ago Link To Comment
The only practical solution to 'lil Kim part dos is to wait until he's in the same zip code as the majority of his military leadership, and then make them all go away. That, realistically, is the only way to stop the suffering of ~25 million people. Air drop a whole lot of food and supplies the minute after you blow up the bad guys, and that, as they say, is that.

Unfortunately nobody has the balls to do that-- so we're left with saber-rattling for cash, finding out what happens when a nuclear-armed psychotic is backed into a corner with no friends left (even if they are really shitty nukes), or letting China continue to dangle their feral attack mouse in front of nations when it serves their purpose.

More unfortunately, at least for the North Koreans, is that nobody seems to really care that they're eating grass and twigs, at least to the point of actually doing something to stop it.
45 weeks ago
45 weeks ago Link To Comment
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