That’s how Tom Dougherty sees it on Election Day Eve Day. He writes:

I predict the popular vote will be +4.3% and the Electoral College will be 285 to 253 based on a final voter affiliation spread of +1.9% favoring the Democrats.

D+1.9 is right in line with Rasmussen’s D+2.0, and Rasmussen nailed it in 2008.

Tom’s map looks like so.

I’ve seen this outcome so often, I’ve started calling it “The Smart Republican Money™.” And I say that without sarcasm or irony or any of that. People who are better with numbers than I am, tend to gravitate towards this, exactly. Me, I’m still working with one or three wildcards, and will have final results for you early tomorrow AM.