“A Comfortable Win for Mitt Romney”
November 5th, 2012 - 1:07 pm
That’s how Tom Dougherty sees it on Election Day Eve Day. He writes:
I predict the popular vote will be +4.3% and the Electoral College will be 285 to 253 based on a final voter affiliation spread of +1.9% favoring the Democrats.
D+1.9 is right in line with Rasmussen’s D+2.0, and Rasmussen nailed it in 2008.
Tom’s map looks like so.
I’ve seen this outcome so often, I’ve started calling it “The Smart Republican Money™.” And I say that without sarcasm or irony or any of that. People who are better with numbers than I am, tend to gravitate towards this, exactly. Me, I’m still working with one or three wildcards, and will have final results for you early tomorrow AM.
Isn’t Rasmussen now showing R+6 for party ID? Or did I misunderstand that number? Not that I’m quite ready to believe that–it would require Democrats to stay home in droves.
Although I will say that last week in Oregon I saw fewer Obama signs and bumper stickers than I saw in previous months–which I’m also not sure I can really believe.
Ras shows Rs up six in self-ID since 2008, the GOP’s nadir. But he predicts an election day turnout of D+2.
Mr. Green,
Does this mean it was probably a bad idea to bet my house on the election?
http://tinyurl.com/awwy88z
Cheers,
Alias93
Rasmussen party affiliation numbers:
October 2012, R=39.1%, D=33.3%, Other=27.5%, R-D = 5.8%
I’m not saying I understand it, but a nearly R+6% party affiliation is more like a 14% shift in ID from 2008. Which is awfully close to that 13% defection number that keeps popping up.
Forgot to include the link:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation
Just for laughs, why does the Daily Beast see it so differently? http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/11/03/mitt-romney-s-delusions-of-victory.html
somebody is operating in an alternate universe, and I’m having trouble figuring out who.
I’m pretty sure that piece will earn Matt Lattimer the coveted Concern Troll of the Year trophy.
I doubt it will take the award, afterall legions of concern trolls and returning prodigal son conservative pundits will have almost two months to write that winning entry. Of course the articles from the left on how Romney’s landslide is really a longterm victory for the progressive movement will be even funnier.
I spent some time reading the message board for Obama contracts on Intrade. The consensus over there is that polls are polls–the top-line number is the correct number, and there’s no reason not to trust the polls in Ohio and Pennsylvania that show turnout at D+11.
If Ohio goes for Romney, there’s going to be some truly shocked people over there.
One astute commenter caught my attention, though: “I’ve never seen an election in which both sides were sure they were winning. No matter who wins, somebody’s going to be awfully mad on Wednesday.”
I realize this is just cake icing, but I’d really like to see one of the states across the top go red. The left desperately needs some soul searching and reform (a liberal Tea Party) and while i think that’s a longshot under any circumstances, it’s impossible unless they lose one of what they think of as theirs.
There’s going to be stiff competion for dumbass in numerous catagorys after this election.
This is a crazy map. WI is not tossup? PA isn’t either? So, why, then, is the Obama campaign going to PA tomorrow? And MN is not light Blue?
Saw an interesting article a bit ago, but now I cannot find it again. It broke down IL, and It seems like Obama could actually lose IL, based on the view from the ground, and based on the declining percentage of the IL’s from Cook Cty.
All these polls seem to be even more heavily weighted towards the Dems than before, just so they can make it seem like a horse race, rather than a blowout. All these Lucy’s are gonna have some ‘splainin’ to do.
Rassmussen is doing it’s best to temper a Romney landslide, but with the internals of 15%+ independents breaking for Romney and no appreciable gender gap (between the candidates), it’s hard not to see one. Also, Rassmussen is basically weighting the sample to *add* Democrats to the samples, because we don’t have a good idea of just how much (or little) Obama’s overall support has dwindled since 2008.
Currently Rassmussen is waffling between a D+3 and D+6 model (and still has Romney ahead). If Obama is losing 13% to his total top-line voter support from the last election, and the GOP is much more enthusiastic than they were in 2008, there’s no way that the D+3 or D+6 holds up.
Bottom line? The election will fall between Gallup and Rassmussen’s outlay. Romney should win, barring dirty tricks and late-breaking support for Obama that no one’s tracked.
On the one hand, I think that “smart Republican money” map is too timid.
On the other hand, any electoral vote over 270 is gravy.
On the gripping hand, I like gravy, and I hope to get lots of it.
Again, if Pa goes Romney, the gig is up. Anecdotal evidence in my corner of Allegheny county bordering Westmoreland county is strong Romney support with little visible support for Obama. The collar counties around Philly still hold the key however. Was encouraged by the 20,000 plus rally in Berks county. Will be hunkering down with Irish whiskey tomorrow night.