GregQ forwarded an interesting poll to me Monday, but I didn’t get a chance to write about it until now. SurveyUSA has President Obama up six points on Romney — in Minnesota. Worse, Obama is four points under 50%. I must reiterate that this is in Minnesota. That’s with a 4.3% margin of error, so Obama doesn’t seem to be in too much danger of losing MN.
Or does he?
Ed Morrissey dug a little deeper and noticed a little something else:
The likely voter breakout may undersample Republicans just a bit. The D/R/I on the sample is 38/32/28, with a D+6. In the big Democratic wave of 2008, when Obama won Minnesota by double digits, the exit polls showed a D+4 advantage, 40/36/25. (There are no exit polls for MN from 2010.) Democrats may well be slightly less inclined to turn out in 2012, but I’d guess that Republicans are more charged up in Minnesota than they were in 2008, and that the 32% is too low.
And — boom! — Romney is back within fighting distance.
That’s not where the bad news ends for Obama, however. SurveyUSA also asked MN voters about a ballot measure to amend the state constitution to define marriage as between one man and one woman. The results aren’t promising for the Left (or for libertarians like myself):
Even youth voters are at best split evenly on the issue. And the older a voter gets, the more likely they are to support the amendment. This puts the Democrats in a real quandary. Get enough voters to the polls to give Obama the state, and risk losing on gay marriage. The infighting might prove quite vicious, as Democrat candidates bail on the measure.
A similar amendment to require voters to present valid photo ID breaks more than two-to-one in favor — including almost half of Democrats and a whopping 65% of independents. Again, this is an issue Democrats have demagogued on the national level, against the apparent wishes of MN voters.