Wargaming the Electoral College
I’d put money that the map they’re looking at in the White House isn’t any different from this one.
Why does it look like this? Not from the polls, believe it or not. Longtime readers know I don’t put much stock in those this far out, and don’t much discuss them before the summer of the election year. I barely look at them.
Instead, fives rules of thumb:
1. President Obama will not win any states he didn’t win in 2008.
2. North Carolina and Indiana are gone for the Democrats. Indiana was a fluke — due to proximity to Illinois, lack of enthusiasm for McCain, and the economic panic. North Carolina was won by a scant 14,000 votes against a demoralized GOP. Both states will go red this time around.
3. Virginia is traditionally GOP-friendly, but has been trending purple. Also, there’s been a huge influx of money and power and more money into the Northern VA ‘burbs around DC. That helps the state’s economy (at the expense of the rest of the nation), and makes Virginia a tough state for the GOP to pick off of Obama’s 2008 column.
4. Obama put together an amazing ground game in the Mountain West last time around, and intends to rally Latino voters to do it again. The region should be all-red, given the state of the economy and Obama’s negatives — but a billion dollars can buy a lot of ground game.
5. There’s a wave of disgust and despair in the industrial Great Lakes and Midwest. I believe this wave hurts both parties, making the region the battleground for 2012.
Who wins? Hell if I know. But I’m certain I’ve picked the right battleground states.
*Map courtesy of 270toWin.com.
I’m willing to bet that Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania are going to be well within the margin of error for Republicans. I think they are tossup based on most recent performance, but I also see all the signs of second wave 2010 Tea Party gains in each of these states. In Florida, don’t underestimate Marco Rubios ability to swing that election in GOP favor. In Virginia, watch for Webb to turn on his Democrat benefactors. In Pennsylvania, watch Santorum switch to run for the Senate seat, and watch him win, which will cause a major case of the vapors across the beltway intelligencia.
Nevada is an odd thing. Las Vegas, once the political center of the state due to the influx of easy money jobs that could be counted on to vote Democrat, has been laid flat on its back. The word “recession” isnt used in that part of the state today, Depression is. However, in the Northern part of the state, its boomtime. Gold Mining has taken off in a big way and the whole I-80 Corridor is doing very well. I recently went through Elko and Carlin at about 5:00 am, and there was actual, go-to-work traffic jams due to the shift changes at the mines. These towns, to put it mildly are not metropolis-like in size, but it was very clear that they are growing and in the current environment and that is amazing. That part of the State votes Republican. McCain/Palin made their last campaign stop in Elko to an SRO audience in 2008. I see tossup with a narrow GOP advantage, but I also see big opportunity for GOP.
New Mexico, Meh. Colorado? Hard to say. Clear tossups.
The only 4 I don’t see changing are Hawaii, California, New York and Illinois. If it starts to look like any one of those four are going into the tossup column, then all hell is about to break loose.
Watch Santorum win? That’s farcical, of the elections that he has one it was by the slimmest of margins and his loss to Casey last time was by 20 points. The country, and Pennsylvania have definitely come towards the GOP on fiscal issues, but they’re not necessarily buying Santorum’s special brand of Social Conservatism (which is what he’s REALLY known for).
I’ll keep this map in mind as I plot my small corner of the Vast RightWing Conspiracy…
I think you can paint Virginia and Florida red for the same reasons you painted Indiana and North Carolina red this time around. That brings the generic GOP up to 248. I agree that the unmarked states you mentioned are the battleground, and I’m shocked to be saying that long time Blue states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa and and Wisconsin are legit swing states now. That’s 62 electoral votes that the dems used to be able to count on that they’ll now have to spend bigtime union contributions to defend. Given that drag on resources, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire represent another 24 electoral votes the GOP can win with minimal effort, bringing tehir total to 272, one short of the total required. That leaves Ohio to decide it all again. Given the way Kasich and Portman won so handily in the midterm governor and senator election, I can’t see them re-electing the president who presided over the downturn that hit them so. That’s assuming they can defend the 62 electoral votes mentioned above, which I don’t believe is a safe assumption.
Now a lot can change in a year, but does anyone really thing Obama will approve anything that might really turn the economy around?
Actually, 272 is enough to win on its own. There are a total of 538 electoral college votes. 270 is a majority. If the GOP wins the states you mention they wouldn’t need Ohio.
Ohio will go red if Kasich can work his magic.
Regarding Ohio and SB 5 it may bring out the unions but what else is on the menu is the state choosing if it wants Obama-care, that will bring out the Tea Party and others. Democrats in Toledo are disgusted. 1% here, 1% there, we will see. i can’t paint red yet but me thinks Obama will visit Ohio a lot. His $1 billion is going to have to be spread over a wider area this time.
The only problem I see with Ohio is that it looks like the repeal of Senate Bill 5 (our version of the Wisconsin public union law) is on the ballot. Not sure if it’s this year, which would be fine, or next year, which would be trouble as the Union membership is very motivated on it.
The “repeal SB 5″ issue is on the ballot this coming November.
If we have another recession (contra Larry Kudlow) and Rick Perry runs, O may be toast. All Perry has to do is point to the low employment rate in Texas and ask unemployed people: Do you want four more years of unemployment, or do you want to try the Texas way? I think Perry would be unstoppable.
You know its funny, but you can overlap this map with several economic maps and see a real correlation – States with a small government approach – growing or maintaining their economic situation – States with a big government high tax situation are losing their jobs and their economic situation is worsening.
Statism and Economic Depression or Free Enterprise and Economic Growth. The choice is really no more complicated than that and you can see that reflected on the map in clear fisher-price colors.
Given the economic conditions, and vilification of Vegas courtesy of The One, I would be pretty surprised if Nevada didn’t go GOP. FL, VA and PA will probably lean GOP as soon as anyone starts serious polling.
You can look at the House election results map, and it will give you another look at OH, FL, and VA. Those are slam-dunk Red States this time around.
As I posted a couple days ago (where’s my h/t?)
, using this, I keep getting a 269 tie. OH, FL, VA, and NH vote Red. Those are sure things, to my mind. NE’s 2nd district stays Blue (you have to click one of the ovals there, Mr. Green). All the rest go Blue. The new Red Congress chooses the Prez and VP. The Left goes berserk. Bush/Gore will seem mild in comparison.
IA is not battleground. It has not voted Red since Reagan. Even in 2010, it was not as solid Red as some other converts. Still, it might go Red this time, depending on the Republican nominee, but I doubt it.
Chances are good, though, that many other States will go Red. Bachmann or Pawlenty on the ticket might well carry MN. WI, MI, and PA are really good Red candidates.
Play with the map. It’s fun. I love that site. I have frequently recommended it in my posts.
Um, no — I do not owe anyone a hat tip on this one.
Hey, just because you’ve been doing this for the past three election cycles doesn’t mean you didn’t steal the idea from some guy who’s been blogging for five minutes.
+1.
Or has Google+ killed that meme?
Also, it’s worse than that.
I’ve been doing this since 1988 — originally using a photocopier, red and blue magic markers, and a pocket calculator. I kept each new map thumbtacked on top of the old ones on my dorm room bulletin board. The online tools didn’t come around until 2004, I think.
I wish I were kidding.
The tie-breaker scenario has even more potential to be nasty that you imply. The House chooses the president and the Senate chooses the vice-president. With regard to timing, Amendment XII says only that “the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President.” There is no explicit statement of timing with regard to the Senate’s choice of vice-president.
I think this means the Constitution is ambiguous on the question of whether the new president and vice-president are selected by the outgoing Congress or the incoming one. Since the outgoing Congress would be split, I can easily imagine the Democrats trying to grab the vice-presidency in a tie as their last action before departing. Could the Republicans filibuster the selection in the hopes of delaying it until the new Congress is sworn in? Bonus points if the incoming Senate is split 50-50.
The only thing I’m sure of is that whoever wound up in office would be widely viewed as illegitimate by a significant chunk of the electorate.
That would be horrible–could you imagine if a large but misguided percentage of our population thought one of our highest leaders was illegitimate???
The R guv candidate lost by 19K votes partially because Dems were willing to vote for RINO Kirk, but didn’t trust the Repubs enuf. Wasn’t all stuffing. Look at the breakdown. U might find it redder than you think.
Of course, there is the Faithless Elector Conspiracy (aka the Popular Vote Compact), which would put all of this in a cocked hat and give the election to whomever gets Chicago’s 15 million votes. Not that any bet is good that DEPENDS on faithless electors….
North Carolina Voted for Richard Burr 55% (R-Senator)we have alot more reason to vote against Obama than we had to vote for Burr.
Stephen are you deliberately goading Smitty.
Dude, save yourself some trouble and just mark Virginia red.
1) Bob McDonald blowout by what, like 18 points in 09.
2) Slaughter of Dem House incumbants.
I disagree that Virginia is trending blue anymore. It got bi-curious for a moment and is in the process of remembering why it likes Republicans better.
Obama beat a very weak Republican candidate in a year with all the winds at his back and did so by a meager 4 points. I have lived in VA all my life an my instincts tell me it isn’t even going to be close this time. The Republicans will take Virginia in a walk if someone like Rick Perry gets the nomination.
I agree with Mark. Like him, I’m a native-born Virginian. Virginia may be much easier to pick off than Steve thinks.
It’s been trending Republican in the last two election cycles. Bob McDonnell crushed Creigh Deeds in the 2009 gubernatorial contest, despite the DNC’s and Obama’s heavy support of Deeds. And the GOP captured the other two statewide races and strengthened its position in both houses of the General Assembly.
In 2010, four Dems lost their seats in Congress. Everyone focuses on Tom Perriello’s loss, because the race received national attention & was viewed as a referendum on ObamaCare (Tom voted yes, at the risk of his seat). He poured huge sums into advertising and received ample help from the DCCC & Obama himself. But the real shocker was the defeat of the very long-serving, conservative Rick Boucher in far Southwest VA. Indeed the shift in VA’s Congressional delegation to Republicans was a surprise to even the GOP establishment.
If the GOP grabs control of the VA Senate this year, then you can count that as a strong signal that the Red Shift continues.
The key to statewide Democrat victories (M. Warner, T. Kaine, Obama) in the Commonwealth are high enthusiasm and turnout in the DC suburbs (which holds roughly a third of VA’s population) and among blacks (who make up about 20%-25% of the electorate) and garnering as many rural whites as possible. And those victories are always close run things. Obama can forget rural whites. Can he count on much enthusiasm from either blacks or the beltway this time around? I’ve my doubts.
It’s time to update of “Campaign Manager 2008″, by Z-Man Games, Jason Matthews, and Christian Leonhard. people do commercial wargames of things like this.
OH, PA, VA. FL go red.
That’s 80 EVs and the endgame. The rest tan can go blue, for all it matters.
PA is the bellwether, just like 2008. If it falls red this time instead of blue, Obama is finished. If not, it’ll be a nailbiter.
Yup.
Agree with your findings generally; not sure about Virginia. I do think Iowa will go red. But a collection of Florida, Pensylvania and Ohio alone would win it. Depending on the actual republican candidate, they’ll either win by and extra 4-6 points on the lower scale, or top 320 at the upper.
Florida Will be Red this time. You can aaalmost bank on it. The only possible thing that might effect that is the huge negatives for our newly minted Republican Governor Mr. Rick Scott. If Bill nelson gets a “serious” challenger (Jeb Bush anyone?) then that could focus voters back on the Obama/Democrat negatives. Nelson is starting to show cracks and will likely get that challenger. Even if Nelson hangs on it will bring out the Red Voters in droves…. and the newfound apathy against “The One” will likely keep a lot of the previously energized blue voters home.
Or I’m just blowing optimistic gas.. pick one.
Will the Voter ID Law passed in Wisconsin make a difference? It might. Besides, that state, while volatile, might be seeing good things from Governor Walkers efforts.
So we need NC, FL, VA, OH, IN, and one other state. What are the prospects of PA or CO turning red. I believe that Virginia will go back red, but Northern Va has turned into a bunch of parasites on the federal teat, so that one is up in the air. If we don’t get VA, we need PA. And that’s with Colorado red. Without it, we need PA. I don’t see any other possibilities of red states, and NE is split. It’s still going to be a hard fight, unless we get the right candidate. And by that, I don’t mean Romney.
The economy will be so far in the dumps by Nov 2012 that any of the Republican hopefuls will win going away. Even Palin will be able to finish off O with 300+ EV.
Think Carter v Reagan or Hoover v FDR.
Yeah, but FDR beat Hoover, but then he got re-elected in a landslide in 1936 at the bottom of the Depression (still blaming Hoover) (and the right-wing Court).
Take one or two blue states and if they are competitive at all, they will draw resources away from the battleground states, and that complicates things for Obama. I believe he will be surprised to fight a rearguard in at least two of the states that are supposed to be easy.
Painting Romney as ineffectual, as the LA Times now reports is starting up, isn’t going to be so easy. Plus, he’s not such a flaming hard-liner that it’s going to be easy to paint him as an extremist. (That’s not true of Perry or Michelle)
It may be to early to call Ohio or Virginia, but Florida has gone RED.
Sorry, but Obama will win.
That he can do all this, and still have an approval rating of 42-45%, shows that about 45% of the electorate votes Democrat no matter what.
Blacks will vote 95% for Obama.
Latinos are a very fast growing group, and will vote 55% for Obama, turning key swings states like Nevada blue
Single women over 30 will vote 80% for Obama. The left knows that preventing women from getting married until they are too old keeps those women stauchly on the left.
Sorry, but countries come and go. We had a good run, as did Britain before us.
$100 says that O doesn’t break 200.
If you look at the states Bush won in 2004, all of the ‘tossup’ states here are from those, except PA (which I don’t think is a purple state anymore).
The center of gravity is drifting leftward. A simple glance at the 2004 map vs. this one makes that clear.
Sorry, but countries come and go. We had a good run, just like Britain before us.
I hate to admit it, but I agree with you. Obama runs as the guy who stopped the depression and paints the GOP as the party of plutocrats looking to throw grandma from the train. Like FDR in 1936, Obama wins.
12 votes changed in the Electoral College based on the 2010 census. There are 22 solidly Republican states (won by McCain) that add up to 182 votes. The candidate would still need to get 88 more votes and these swing states (with a total of 106 votes) would be the most likely places:
Colorado 9, Florida 29, Indiana 11, Nevada 6, New Mexico 5, North Carolina 15, Ohio 18, and Virginia 13.
Florida is essential, unless you can pickup a state that leans Democrat (like Wisconsin). Ohio could be lost and still get enough votes, or a couple of the smaller ones could be lost and not change the outcome.
Sorry Toads,
But the country is not tilting leftward. Please review the results of the 2010 midterms. Ohio will go red especially if Pennsylvania goes red. VA definitely goes red as the NVA suburbs didn’t make a damn bit of difference in the governor’s race. Florida goes red and has been trending that way since 2010.
I think Obama either wins big (electorally), or he will lose.
If Virginia and Florida go to Obama, he wins big. If he doesnt, he will have to:
-Sweep the west, with Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado
-Hold Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan (all of them)
-win either Pennsylvania or Ohio
If he misses on Arizona he has to take Pennsylvania and Ohio to win.
Thats a pretty narrow path to victory. I say if he has the votes to win that way he’ll have the votes to win a lot bigger than that. If not, he’ll lose.
It seems to me that Ohio & Florida go red, taking the map to 253.
That leaves the Republican candidate 17 votes short of 270.
The three brown states in the West would do it. Or two of them plus one eastern brown state.
Nominate the Texan, and an Easterner.
Perry/Romney. Or just possibly, Perry/Snow.
Didn’t Ca. vote to split the Electoral vote a few years ago?
Based on either popular vote or Congressional district, as I remember it.
That would put a few votes in the Red.
Only Maine and Nebraska may split their EC votes.
1. We don’t have a GOP candidate at this point, and each of the candidates bring a different map into play.
2. The recent change to Super Tuesday for the GOP means a longer primary fight, meanwhile Obama raises more money that he can spend on 30 minute ads.
3. Winning the house in 2010 is not winning the presidency in 2012. Ask Dole or Mondale how well that worked for them.
4. FL. People above talk about Rubio delivering the state. Sorry he won a three way race by a lower percentage than the other two candidates combined. Still a toss up, I’ll give you that one.
5. MI is blue, Obama bailed out the auto industry, Unions remember small things like that. Many of the GOP candidates were against it on record.
6. WI is blue, you can’t look at the state of the local politics right now, recalls, and tell me the GOP is gaining ground here. No matter the final results the ground game will be in place and the tone set.
7. CO is blue, Obama carried it in 2008 and held the senate seat in 2010. Margin of error is less but presidential cycles means more turn out and typically for D.
8. NE 2nd Dist. will give 1 blue to Obama, most people forget, including McCain that NE is not winner take all.
9. That’s 222 (D) to 205 (R) but that’s Obama vs. a generic (R) . Going back to point 1, certain candidates don’t play well on this map. Romney will have problems in the south, opening GA via Atlanta. He can’t win MI see #5. Perry isn’t in yet but has problems in the Rust Belt and can’t put a west or east coast Obama state in play minus VA (maybe). Below those top two, in my opinion the map gets worse. The last serving representative of a state to win the presidency was Garfield. Also I don’t see PA going red anytime soon. (#10?) it hasn’t been red in presidential cycles since Bush 41. Plus the media markets it shares with other states in the population centers typically means 2 for 1. It was McCain’s fatal mistake to make a stand in this state because of the primary fight with Obama/Clinton. He should have gone MI, WI, MN, OH and picked a VP who could win FL&VA.