Late Night Rambling
August 16th, 2005 - 11:14 pm
What’s Israel get for getting out of Gaza? Let’s take a look, but first let’s scratch off what Israel won’t get:
1. Increased respect from the international community.
2. Increased domestic security.
3. Increased domestic tranquility.
In fact, Israel will suffer a decrease in all three of those items.
Eventually, the international community will
Gaza Watch (In Words And Pictures)
Steve Green has the words; Charles Johnson and Karol Sheinen have the photos. What will pulling out of Gaza provide? Steve makes a great observation (as usual):Israelis won’t have to deal with 1.5 million Palestinians who, by and large it…
Actually, another thing that the Israelis gain, if the Palestinians are completely responsible for governing themelves, and attacks continue to be waged on Israel from Gaza, is more freedom to be completely pitiless in responding.
The non-radicalized Muslims, both in Gaza and the wider world, better soon start to grasp what mortal danger their radicals have placed them in.
One of the big Excedrin Factors was having to provide security for 4,000 or so people who for some unfathomable reason want to live in isolated outposts surrounded by 1,500,000 people who want not merely to kill them, but to bodily rend them limb from limb with their bare hands. Protecting those settlements was akin to defending a salient of little-to-no strategic value on terrain of little defensive value. By removing the settlers and finishing the security wall, all the PLO has left are rockets, mortars, and attempts to breech the fence. At a stroke, it takes the easy options for attacking Israelis off the table.
Gaza is actually small fry. Hamas can claim victory all they like, the Palestinian reponse may be the acid test to what happens on the west bank. If the attacks on Israel do not decrease and if the Palestinians are not absolutely sensible in their reaction to this pull out, the chances of getting the Israelis to quit the West Bank settlements is zero.
I’m certainly no expert on Israel, but it seems to me that the Gaza pullout is merely the first step in a plan for longer term security. I think the fence being built is to establish what Sharon sees as the ultimate border of the country and that Israel will withdraw to those borders in the relatively near future. Perhaps the exclusion in one form or another of most or all Arabs will follow that. But I think that the consolidation of the country to a much more defensible configuration will continue. It a military mindset properly at work; establish a defensible perimeter.
Rolling the dice
My Cousin Sharen and I have been debating the idea of Israel abandoning the Gaza Strip and the West Bank for quite a while; she’s against it and I’m on the fence, so to speak. Stephen Green summarizes my take…
I think Mike from Colorado has it about right. The Gaza pullout is Israel dressing its lines; drawing back from a practical salient, if not a geographic one. I don’t think Gaza offers much in the way of strategic depth if there aren’t Egyptian tanks to worry about. It isn’t a “dagger pointed at the heart” of Israel, as You Know Who opportunistically imagined Czechoslovakia to be for Germany. Gaza was a liability.
Withdrawing from Gaza is akin to the withdrawal from the so-called security zone in southern Lebanon. It eliminates a potential point of conflict between the Israeli Defense Forces and a hostile population. Certainly Israel can and will defend the Gaza border as vigorously as it guards its northern border, even to the point of making the occasional reprisal across it. That the Gaza pullout has produced human tragedy in the form of people being wrenched from their homes and lifestyles is something the architects of the settlement policy will have to answer for.
In leaving Gaza, Israel sets the stage for redrawing the lines of the Pre-1967 West Bank more to its liking. A border is what you can make stick. Expect Israel now to draw a new eastern border and to make it stick.
“Neither option is less undesirable…”
I understand the point you are trying to underscore with that grammatical construction, but…just: wow!
Gaza
There’s an awful lot of emotion ~ anger, suffering, hopes and dreams, realized and not ~ in that word. We’re watching it play out across the news channels, talk shows, newspapers and blogs, and everyone’s got an opinion on why…
Goodbye Gaza
I’ve been trying not to watch the withdrawal from Gaza. I have very mixed feelings about it. I didn’t know I would feel such emotion about it, but I do. On one hand, I know that the situation, as…
As far as I know, the only ones on the face of the earth that will be satisfied with anything less than the total annihilation of Israel is the “far right-wing wackos” of the United States.
Okay I uderstand the need for pulling out of Gaza. My question is what will be done with the infrastructure? The sewer systems, the buildings roads etc. Is all that to be handed over to the Palestinians? When Isreal took it over, there was nothing there but sand and rocks.
Maybe this was posted somewhere, I didn’t see it.
From what I’ve seen on the Web, the settlers being removed appear to be using a scorched-earth policy. As homes are emptied, they’re burned out and knocked down.
As for the other infrastructure, I don’t know.
I’m moderately convinced that with the pullout, Sharon is hoping the power vacuum will spark a Palestinian civil war that will leave the Palestinians too busy and too drained to mount large effective attacks on Israel.
Eyeless in Gaza
Steve Green -- an "out and out ZIONIST," to borrow an unhinged Jew baiter's phrase -- examines the Israeli pullout from Gaza and finds the glass half full:[...] Does Israel stand to gain anything? Well, yes. Israelis w…
Israeli Pride; Israeli Angst
In 1963, Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip.In 1963, Jordan occupied the West Bank and half of Jerusalem.In 1963, Syria towered 3,000 feet over Israel, entrenched on the Golan Heights.In 1963, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) was born with only o…
“The PA
The Israeli Pull-Out
So, in the short-term, Hamas may be cheering. But I wonder how they’ll feel when they find out that this might be Israel’s first step towards finally treating terrorist attacks as acts of war rather than merely a security issue.
“expel every single last Arab out of Gaza”
Yes. Faster, please.
“There’s a real chance that the Sharon Option becomes our best option in Iraq”
The logic of this across the board comparison eludes me. Just what Iraq territory would you relinquish, and to whom? And, how would you get America to shove this type of option down the throats of the Iraqis?
Help.
Too much vodka?
Gaza
Stephen Green is wise…
Gaza
As they say (and this one I know they say): hope for the best but prepare for the worst. And I think that is what Isreal has done here. My guess is that the IDF will be ready to move with Thor’s Hammer against any attack that originates from Gaza. An…
Good analysis, on the rocks
The Monk has been quiet during this pullout because his position is and has been clear: the whole “Peace Process” from Madrid to Oslo to Camp David to the Road Map to the Withdrawal is a tragedy for Israel of hope over experience and fantasy over reali…
WAR: Best Worst Option
Go read Stephen Green on what Israel gets out of withdrawing from Gaza. BONUS LINK: Mark Steyn on Cindy Sheehan (more from me on her later, hopefully). (Registration required, but worth it to read Steyn’s Spectator columns regularly)….
A very reasonable assessment. You may need more vodka tonight.
“…the consolidation of the country to a much more defensible configuration…”
Sharon is preparing for permanent war with the Pals. That is smart. He is putting Israel into a defensible posture, militarily and politically. The effort to hold onto this real estate was not worth it. The security wall is effective. It is keeping out suicide bombers. The Pals can shoot rockets over it, maybe, but their ability to disrupt day to day life in Israel is coming to an end. Soon they will have absolutley zero leverage on the Israelis. This is a good outcome. The Pals can evolve into a wonderful democracy, or, more likely, continue to be a poor, corrupt, inept community ruled by murderous thugs. Either way they cannot get at the Israelis. So, it doesn’t matter. Good walls keep the peace.
I don’t see any great reason that the Gaza can’t be the entire Palestinian state. It doesn’t follow that the West Bank must also be given to the Palestinians, especially if they prove unable to manage Gaza. Isreal will have a place to send problem people from the west bank
The chaos of the Gaza will show, eventually, that without the democratic institutions we are building in Iraq, any Arab run “state” is just a terrorist camp.
The Palestinian part of the bargain is to disarm and disable the terrorists, but Abbas has yet to make a move. So far, he has been striking deals with Hamas to not interfere with Israeli withdrawal. But negotiating with terrorists has only backed the Palestinian Authority into a corner.
Hamas, the most organized and most popular terrorist group, will hold the Palestinian Authority hostage on every decision. As Sami Abu Zouhri, a Hamas spokesman, clarified that