Gallup: ‘US Electorate in 2012 Looks Like 2008′ (But It Won’t Vote That Way)
October 26, 2012 - 12:43 pm
Gallup today offers up a striking headline that makes its demographic survey story look like dooooooom for Mitt Romney.
Looks bad for Team Mitt, right?
Well, skip down to the end and you’ll find the real story.
Thus, given the relatively similar demographic composition of the 2012 and 2008 electorates, the election’s outcome may hinge more on how groups vote rather than to what extent they will vote. And most groups are currently less likely to support Obama now than they were in 2008. However, Obama’s seven-point margin of victory in the 2008 election leaves him considerable breathing room to lose electoral support yet still win the election.
At this point, though, Gallup Daily tracking of likely voter preferences suggests Obama has lost more support than he could afford to, given his current 50% to 47% deficit to his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney. To close that gap in the final weeks of the campaign, Obama would need to have subgroups favorable to him, such as blacks or young adults, turn out at rates that match or exceed those of groups less favorable to him, or to increase his support among key subgroups even if their turnout remains the same.
Gallup writes in a more formal style than I tend to use, so they did not finish their piece the way I would:
And that ain’t likely.
Gallup’s national poll today shows Romney with a five point lead, 51-46. That’s up a point for Romney and down a point for Obama since yesterday. A new Rasmussen has Wisconsin (!) tied. Obama is reportedly increasing his ad buys in Minnesota, either to shore himself up there (!) or blast into neighboring swing states. Or both. (!)
This election is still a close run thing, I don’t want to come off as over confident about that. But the mo is with Mitt. So it’s time for another Mortal Kombat reminder…