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Spengler

It’s not the settlers but the unsettlers, I argue in this morning’s edition of the Jewish webzine Tablet.

http://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/177456/settlers-one-state-solution?all=1

An excerpt here:

Between the Settlers and the Unsettlers, the One-State Solution Is on Our Doorstep

Why Israel will soon be the only state able to govern Judea and Samaria, and the only military force capable of securing its borders

A one-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is upon us. It won’t arrive by Naftali Bennett’s proposal to annex the West Bank’s Area C, or through the efforts of BDS campaigners and Jewish Voice for Peace to alter the Jewish state. But it will happen, sooner rather than later, as the states on Israel’s borders disintegrate and other regional players annex whatever they can. As that happens, Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria is becoming inevitable.

Last week’s rocket attacks from Gaza failed to inflict many casualties in Israel—but they administered a mortal wound to Palestinian self-governance. Hamas launched its deepest strikes ever into Israel after the IDF cracked down on its West Bank operations following the murder last month of three Israeli boys, arresting nearly 900 members of Hamas and other terrorist groups. Humiliated in the territories, andunable to pay its 44,000 Gaza employees, Hamas acted from weakness, gambling that missile attacks would elicit a new Intifada on the West Bank. Although Fatah militias joined in the rocket attacks from Gaza, for now the Palestinian organizations are in their worst disarray in 20 years.

The settlers of Judea and Samaria have stood in the cross-hairs of Western diplomacy for two decades, during which the word “settler” has become a term of the highest international opprobrium. Yet the past decade of spiraling conflicts in the Middle East have revealed that what is settled in the region is far less significant than what is unsettled. Iran’s intervention into the Syrian civil conflict has drawn the Sunni powers into a war of attrition that already has displaced more than 10 million people, mostly Sunnis, and put many more at risk. The settled, traditional, tribal life of the Levant has been shattered. Never before in the history of the region have so many young men had so little hope, so few communal ties, and so many reasons to take up arms.

As a result, the central premise of Western diplomacy in the region has been pulled inside-out, namely that a resolution of the Palestinian refugee issue was the key to long-term stability in the Middle East. Now the whole of the surrounding region has become one big refugee crisis. Yet the seemingly spontaneous emergence of irregular armies like the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) now rampaging through northern Mesopotamia should be no surprise. The misnamed Arab Spring of 2011 began with an incipient food crisis in Egypt and a water crisis in Syria. Subsidies from the Gulf States keep Egypt on life support. In Syria and Iraq, though, displaced populations become foraging armies that loot available resources, particularly oil, and divert the proceeds into armaments that allow the irregulars to keep foraging. ISIS is selling $800 million a year of Syrian oil to Turkey, according to one estimate, as well as selling electricity from captured power plants back to the Assad government. On June 11 it seized the Bajii power plant oil refinery in northern Iraq, the country’s largest.

The region has seen nothing like it since the Mongol invasion of the 13th century. Perpetual war has turned into a snowball that accumulates people and resources as it rolls downhill and strips the ground bare of sustenance. Those who are left shiver in tents in refugee camps, and their young men go off to the war. There is nothing new about this way of waging war; it was invented in the West during the Thirty Years War by the imperial general Albrecht von Wallenstein, and it caused the death of nearly half the population of Central Europe between 1618 and 1648.

As a result of this spiraling warfare, four Arab states—Libya, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq—have effectively ceased to exist. Lebanon, once a Christian majority country, became a Shia country during the past two decades under the increased domination of Hezbollah. Nearly 2 million Syrian Sunnis have taken refuge in Lebanon, as Israeli analyst Pinhas Inbariobserves, and comprise almost half of Lebanon’s total population of 4 million, shifting the demographic balance to the Sunnis—while the mass Sunni exodus tilts the balance of power in Syria toward the Alawites and other religious minorities, who are largely allied with Iran. Jordan, meanwhile, has taken in a million Syrian Sunnis, making Palestinians a minority inside Jordan for the first time in a generation. A region that struggled to find sustenance for its people before 2011 has now been flooded with millions of refugees without resources or means of support. They are living for the most part on largesse from the Gulf States, and their young men are prospective cannon fodder.

All Comments   (10)
All Comments   (10)
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There are only two possible ways for a one state solution to succeed. First would be if the Muslims murder all of the Jews in Israel. The other would for Israel to kill all the terrorists and the remaining Palestinians to swear off terrorism.
1 week ago
1 week ago Link To Comment
Interesting article. Exactly what do you think happens with Gaza? Does Egypt retake control?
1 week ago
1 week ago Link To Comment
And...so? What happens? Following the 30 years war model the conflict will be prolonged and severe, and vortex that will claim any number of states and peoples. There will be ups and downs. Some nations will simply cease to exist in any recognized form. The worst we can do is attempt to prevent or control the process - we can't, we can only protect ourselves. Is Israel safe? Perhaps. For now. But you never know in these situations where the bloody tendrils might extend. The end of the 30 years war was a shattering of larger nations into many smaller ones, and a slow reunification of those scattered bits into unified whole.
1 week ago
1 week ago Link To Comment
FWIW - Hamas flying an Iranian-made Armed Drone over Gaza http://theaviationist.com/2014/07/14/ababil-over-israel/

"Nevertheless, the unprecedented activity by Hamas drones is confirmed by the Israeli Defense Force, that confirmed to have shot down a UAV with a Patriot missile, near Ashdod, earlier on Monday Jul. 14."
1 week ago
1 week ago Link To Comment
Thanks, David.

While you are at Tablet. You should read Edward Luttwak's excellent piece about the history of Zionism:

"Why Obama, Kerry, Abbas, Hamas, BDS, and Hezbollah Will All Go Poof!: Bad newspaper headlines aside, it’s been a pretty good century for the Zionists" By Edward N. Luttwak|July 10, 2014

http://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/178540/luttwak-zionism-history
1 week ago
1 week ago Link To Comment
David - Read the Tablet piece in its entirety. Excellent analysis.
1 week ago
1 week ago Link To Comment

The Evil genie is out of the Bottle. It all began in 1967 when the Israeli Forces reclaimed all of Jerusalem but in a moment of weakness and misguided secular-Jewish largesse decided to allow the Muslim's Al Aksa Mosque to remain undisturbed on Temple Mount. Temple Mount is a Spiritual Vortex, given to the Jewish Nation to safeguard by the Holy ONE, the Omnipotent Force of all Forces in the Universe, with strict instructions as to what is allowed and forbidden on this most Awesome and powerful Spiritual Powerplant on planet earth.
The Jewish People have no Spiritual claim to the Holy Land when they do not fulfill their 'part of the bargain', that is, their G-d given responsibility under the Covenant to serve as
Custodians of the Mount. In effect, fulfilling that singular responsibility, more than any historical claims or 'legal' titles of ownership is what gives legitimacy to the Jewish possession of Jerusalem and the Holy Land.
On a deep and subconscious spiritual level this truth is felt if not understood not only by the European Union and United Nations but particularly by our half brothers in the Muslim world who have rightfully concluded the weakness and spiritual faithlessness of the Jewish Nation in spurning G-d's Will. Their fraudulent possession of Temple Mount and the Israeli Government's complicity in reinforcing of this fraud by officially forbidding any Jewish prayer or even for Jews to set foot there has caused a world-shattering metaphysical imbalance, a short-circuit so to speak.
Since 1967 the cancer of Radical Islam has metastasized world-wide, threatening every civilization with physical and spiritual destruction. The 9-11 attacks, Violent terror attacks on non-Muslims, Islamic unrest and Sharia in Europe, everywhere Islam has a presence, the dread and unspeakable menace of two nuclear armed Islamic States, Pakistan and soon Iran, just to name a very few nightmares.
Is all this a coincidence? Is it a coincidence that all three major religions hold Jerusalem as sacred ground to be fought and died for? A coincidence that Jerusalem is never mentioned in Islam's holiest book, Koran, yet thousands of times in Jewish Scripture!
The truth is that nothing can stop this Cancer from spreading. Not Armed forces, Drone assassinations, Civil laws or security checkpoints. Not even the false panacea of a 'successful' political settlement with Arab Palestinians in Judea/Samaria for 'Palestinian' Statehood there will turn the tide and return the 'Genie' to the 'bottle'. Those are nothing but band-aids on soon-to-be terminal cancer. And more and more as the nations of the world, including formerly friendly ones in European Capitols and Washington D.C. Quietly have begun to openly question the merits, even the 'legitimacy' of the Jewish State, the situation facing Israel has become dire. Far worse than Iranian nukes is this other threat. Sadly, more and more American Jews have come to question Israeli status in that region. The BDS movement grows on American University campuses, most troubling as it now includes growing numbers of young liberal Jewish students, men and women.
Militarily, politically, philosophically, morally ...Israel is becoming weakened on many fronts. It is not certain the Jewish State can survive much longer under the expanded and multifaceted front.
Unless...The Jewish Nation will do what should have been done in 1967. Remove the Al Aksa from Temple Mount. We need not destroy it, for we Jews do not destroy. We are not a vindictive people even towards our enemies. This golden-domed edifice can be disassembled brick by brick, placed on flat bed trucks, hauled overland and presented as a gift to the Hashemite King as a goodwill gesture.
We must Restore balance to the spiritual vortex of this Awesome Temple Mount as was intended by the Holy ONE. There Is No Other Way. Yes, it will be painful. The region and world will bleed with Muslim fury and world-violence. For a while. And then, the cancer will die as the Genie of Spiritual imbalance is returned to the Bottle. There Is No Other Way. And Time Is Running Out.




Yoelarry
KOZMAN


1 week ago
1 week ago Link To Comment
You're dead wrong here. Dividing Israel to set up an intentional conflict has allowed Jews to maintain a masculine credibility that the West has lost. A secure peace always results in bored women who will ruin their nation's demographics with extremely high divorce rates and mass immigration of exotic foreigners. Jewish women are no exception to this.
1 week ago
1 week ago Link To Comment
Excellent short overview of the crisis in the Middle East. Food, Water, and von Wallenstein. Not a word about demography, but that graph!!
1 week ago
1 week ago Link To Comment
You should read his original article in Tablet which he references -- it explains much more. It's enough to make one religious! If there isn't the unseen hand of G-d acting on Israel to save her, then it's almost impossible to explain otherwise.
5 days ago
5 days ago Link To Comment
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