Massachusetts shocker: Brown Up 15% in Pajamas Media/CrossTarget Poll

A new poll taken Thursday evening for Pajamas Media by CrossTarget – an Alexandria VA survey research firm – shows Scott Brown, a Republican, leading Martha Coakley, a Democrat, by 15.4% in Tuesday’s special election for the open Massachusetts US Senate seat. The poll of 946 likely voters was conducted by telephone using interactive voice technology (IVR) and has a margin of error of +/- 3.19%.

This is the first poll to show Brown surging to such an extent. A poll from the Suffolk University Political Research Center – published Thursday morning by the Boston Herald, but taken earlier – had Brown moving ahead by 4%.

The special election is to fill the seat held by the recently deceased Edward Kennedy. Kennedy, a Democrat, served in the US Senate for 46 years. A Brown victory could stall legislation supported by the Obama administration, including health care.

What follows are the questions asked in the poll with the responses:

1. Thinking about next Tuesday’s special election for US Senate. The candidates are Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Martha Coakley. If the election were today, who would you vote for? If Scott Brown press 1, if Martha Coakley press 2. If you are undecided press 3.
1. Scott Brown 53.9%
2. Martha Coakley 38.5%
3. Undecided 7.6%

2. And do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Brown? If favorable press 1. If unfavorable press 2. If you are undecided press 3.
1. Favorable 60.5%
2. Unfavorable 27.5%
3. Unsure 12.1%

3. And what about Martha Coakley. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Martha Coakley? If favorable press 1. If unfavorable press 2. If your undecided press 3.
1. Favorable 38.5%
2. Unfavorable 50.5%
3. Undecided 11%

4. Thank you. Only a small percentage of all voters will cast a ballot in this Tuesdays special election for US Senate. How likely is it that you will actually vote in this election on January 19th? If you will definitely vote press 1. If you might or might not vote press 2. If you probably wont vote press 3.
1. Definitely will vote 71.9%
2. Might or might not vote 21.4%
3. Probably won’t vote 6.8%

5. Now, let me ask are you a male or female? If you are male press 1, if you are female press 2.
1. Male 43.3%
2. Female 56.7%

6. Thank you. Now for the last question. Do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or something else. If a Republican press 1. If a Democrat press 2. If something else press 3.
1. Republican 20.3%
2. Democrat 36.6%
3. Something else 43.1%