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Roger’s Rules

What States Will Obama Win? (Third in a Series)

November 3rd, 2012 - 3:01 pm

Back on October 21st, before the third Presidential debate, I speculated that Obama would take seventeen states and one enfranchised dependent sinkhole (Washington D.C.) for a grand total of 223 electoral votes, leaving Mitt Romney with 33 states and 315 electoral votes.

On October 25th,  I thought that maybe Iowa and Michigan would migrate from the Obama side of the ledger to the adult side, leaving Romney with a whopping 337 electoral votes.

Since then, we’ve had a whole lot of weather going on, at least where I live (temporarily, where I used to live but don’t now while the remnants of Hurricane Sandy are expunged from the first floor of our house). I’m told that the President has enjoyed a mini bounce from parading around in an anorak and sounding concerned about those suffering from the hurricane.  But most if not all of the places where he might get a bounce were already firmly in the Blue Column: Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, etc.  Even I didn’t think they had much of a chance of going for Romney.  I had put Maine in the politically mature camp, but I now think it will split, with 1 electoral vote going for Romney.  I am also wobbly about Michigan.  That still makes Romney’s new address 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue come January 20-whatever.

I am happy to see that my prognostication has in essentials been independently seconded by so eminent an authority as Michael Barone, who puts Romney at 315 and Obama at 223, as I did in my first foray into this murky territory.  Michael described this prediction as “going out on a limb.” After next Tuesday, I believe it will be the accepted wisdom that pundits everywhere will claim to have known or suspected all along.

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