What States Will Obama Win? (Third in a Series)
Back on October 21st, before the third Presidential debate, I speculated that Obama would take seventeen states and one enfranchised dependent sinkhole (Washington D.C.) for a grand total of 223 electoral votes, leaving Mitt Romney with 33 states and 315 electoral votes.
On October 25th, I thought that maybe Iowa and Michigan would migrate from the Obama side of the ledger to the adult side, leaving Romney with a whopping 337 electoral votes.
Since then, we’ve had a whole lot of weather going on, at least where I live (temporarily, where I used to live but don’t now while the remnants of Hurricane Sandy are expunged from the first floor of our house). I’m told that the President has enjoyed a mini bounce from parading around in an anorak and sounding concerned about those suffering from the hurricane. But most if not all of the places where he might get a bounce were already firmly in the Blue Column: Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, etc. Even I didn’t think they had much of a chance of going for Romney. I had put Maine in the politically mature camp, but I now think it will split, with 1 electoral vote going for Romney. I am also wobbly about Michigan. That still makes Romney’s new address 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue come January 20-whatever.
I am happy to see that my prognostication has in essentials been independently seconded by so eminent an authority as Michael Barone, who puts Romney at 315 and Obama at 223, as I did in my first foray into this murky territory. Michael described this prediction as “going out on a limb.” After next Tuesday, I believe it will be the accepted wisdom that pundits everywhere will claim to have known or suspected all along.
Hope you are spot on. So sorry about your house, and good luck with hurricane expungement. Currently enjoying chapter entitled “The Death of Socialism,” in your latest book, and pretty much underlining every phrase. May November 6 bring on the desired political expungement as well.
Mr Kimball–
I hope that your family has started to recover from the storm. Based on some of your earlier posts, it appears that you suffered significant flooding in your home. Our thoughts and prayers remain with you and your family.
Regarding your November 6th predictions, I hope that you are right and that I am wrong. At this point, I do not see a plausible path to a Romney victory. The best performance by a Republican candidate in Pennsylvania (since we last won the state in 1988) was by George W. Bush in 2004. In a year when African American turnout was down (voters were less-than-enthralled with Senator Kerry), President Bush still lost the state by a full 2.5% or 145,000 votes. It should also be mentioned that President Bush outpolled Senator Kerry by a full 13% in the “coal country” portions of the state that year.
In order for Gov Romney to win Pennsylvania, he would have to outperform George W. Bush’s 2004 numbers by 7.5% in the Philadelphia suburbs (including the key Montgomery County). It simply is not feasible. There are not enough votes there to compensate for the overwhelming Philadelphia turnout. It should also be noted that the Hispanic population has incrased by 17% in Lehigh Valley and Reading and Hispanic voters are going against Romney by almost 3 to 1.
In short, my prediction is far more somber. I believe the popular vote will close, but President Obama will sweep Ohio, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin and finish with about 294 EVs.
Let us all pray that I am wrong.
Boyd Durkin “Makes you wonder how much important news you missed pre-1994…and I guess how much porn, too.”
Maybe they could do NJ transit buses that replaces trains.