What States Will Obama Win? (Second in a Series)
The day before the last presidential debate, I speculated here on what states Obama would win. That final debate did not change much: Romney solidified his new status as frontrunner and has continued his momentum. He succeeded in presenting himself as what he in fact is: a plausible, competent candidate, and one, moreover, who has that presidential aura, that indefinable but essential nimbus of authority. Obama, for his part, gave his petulance free rein. As many commentators noted, he seemed more like the challenger than the incumbent: scrappy, impatient, full of bile and vitriol. Unfortunately, for him, Romney got to summarize the major take-away from that debate: “Attacking me is not an agenda.” With all that in mind, I present my updated list of states I think Obama will win:
- Hawaii (4)
- Washington (12)
- Oregon (7)
- California (55)
- New Mexico (5)
- Illinois (20)
- Minnesota (10)
- New York (29)
- Washington, DC (3)
- Maryland (10)
- Delaware (3)
- New Jersey (14)
- Connecticut (7)
- Rhode Island (4)
- Massachusetts (11)
- Vermont (3)
- Maine (4)
So: I am now thinking that Obama will win two fewer states than I thought before the debate: Iowa and Michigan, I suspect, will migrate to the red team.. Right now, I predict he will get sixteen states and the enfranchised dependent sinkhole that is Washington, D.C., for a grand total of 201 electoral votes, leaving Mitt Romney with 35 states and 337 electoral votes.
As I noted before, there are obviously variations on this scenario. Most that I ponder have Romney winning, and winning comfortably. Maybe Obama will pick up a couple of states I have put on the Romney side of the roster. It won’t matter because Obama will not pick up enough to give him the needed 69 electoral votes. As Karl Rove notes in his Wall Street Journal column today, “An incumbent president’s final number in opinion polls is often his Election Day share of his vote. Undecided voters generally swing the challenger’s way. So if Mr. Obama goes into Nov. 6 below 50% in these states—as he now is in almost every one—he is likely to lose them and his chance at a second term.”
Read part one here.
OK, that 337 number sounds reasonable to me. I’d add a possible extra seven votes from Oregon, five from New Mexico, and one of the four Maine has to offer for a total of thirteen more–or an even 350 electoral votes for Romney and 188 for Obama. It all depends on the momentum. Minnesota could even wake up and dial right for once. That would give Obama 178 and Romney a respectable Landslide figure of 360. We really need the Senate in sane hands to effect the changes necessary to save the country at this point.
REZKO, OBAMA, AND THE NADHMI AUCHI RAILROAD LINKING CHICAGO, WASHINGTON, AND BAGHDAD (Part 3 of 3)
http://illinoispaytoplay.com/2012/10/26/rezko-obama-and-the-nadhmi-auchi-railroad-linking-chicago-washington-and-baghdad-part-3-of-3/
360 votes!!! Really, are you being serious? If you are, you are delusional. I have been thinking that the maring of victory for Romney would be much greater than what is being suggested in the news but I never thought that Romney would peel off Oregon and New Mexico. Those states will not go Red.
Then again, we are all entitled to our own opinion. I might be completely off too.
Not delusional, Ted. Romney will win comfortably, by 100+ ECV. Roll on November 6th…
TedJ, reading comprehension obviously wasn’t your strong suit on school. Read the article again very slowly.
Why is Obama spending money on ads in Oregon?
well we mailed in our ballots last week and voted for Romney (my wife and I are both registered democrats and union members)
That’s what I’ve been projecting lately on 270towin.com. 330-360 electoral seems like a solid range for Romney by this point. If he wins all dignified swing states as well as OR, MN, and ME-02 then it’d be just 5 short of what Big O won in ’08.
Can’t wait to vote against this Obama loser.
So vote early, if your state lets you.
here in FL early voting started Saturday. The local library is one of the vote spots, and I’m told that yesterday afternoon there was a line outside the building nearly a block long.
FWIW, both parties are still going at it hammer & tongs here with nonstop TV commercials and phone calls. This makes me doubt earlier reports that the Obama campaign has folded its tent and written off Florida.
Virginia is now firmly in the “leans Romney” camp. Why? Because it now looks like Loudoun County, one of the large counties in Northern Virginia, is swinging to Romney. Coupled with the fact that Fairfax County will be in the Obama camp but with far less than the +110,000 votes they supplied last time. By the same token, Allen (R) will defeat Kaine (D) in the Senate race.
Kind of depends on how much Pat Moran still had on his “to-do” list, and how much he’d already gotten done.
Some of us remember the exhorbitant bad driving fees that Kaine attempted to impose on Virginia residents — $1,000 for speeding, paid over 3 years; $3,000 for reckless driving, paid over 3 years, etc. The outcry was so huge they got repealed. I hope people in Virginia remember this when they vote! We already pay tons of taxes to live here.
I live in Loudoun County. Judging by bumper sticker ratio, Romney is way ahead. The majority of the few Obama stickers I see are faded 2008 versions.
It’s anecdotal, but it’s what I see every day.
>>Can’t wait to vote against this Obama loser.
A lot of us already have.
Count me in, too, and it’s so much nicer knowing you are helping others to do the same to twist the blade. Less tension this past week, sleep much better, don’t wake up at 3:00 worrying about the outcome.
Rasmussen shows Obama with a five-point advantage in PA. How do you account for this? I’m all for seeing the One given a pink slip, but…
I’m in Philly and there are little to no signs for Obama when in 2008 they were EVERYWHERE…there just isn’t the enthusiasm there once was for obvious reasons, but this is PHILLY! You can just imagine what western PA and central PA is thinking about Obama.
Also the midterms had huge wins for the GOP for local, state and federal posts. The majority of the counties in PA are represented by the GOP.
PA will turn Red this election. That’s huge.
Rasmussen shows Obama and Romney tied 49-49 in Wisconsin. Obama won that state by 14 points in 2008. Obama won Pennsylvania by only 10 in 2008, yet he’s still up by 5 in 2012? If Obama is down 10+ from 2008 in Wisconsin, I’d expect him to be down close to 10 points almost everywhere. (On the other hand, I assume Pennsylvania has far more black voters than Wisconsin.) Even in the Chicago area, Obama is leading but way off his 208 pace in many Democrat areas. He will win Illinois, but not by the 24+ margin he enjoyed in 2008.
I think (hope) it may be a Romney blow-out.
Interesting, though. The largest paper in Wisconsin, the Milwaukee Sentinel Journal has refused to endorse either candidate. From a leftist rag, that’s almost an endorsement for Romney.
http://gretawire.foxnewsinsider.com/2012/10/26/bad-news-for-president-obama-and-governor-romney-in-wisconsin/
You’re right on that, Sally. The Journal Sentinel always used to endorse. I’m assuming they won’t go as far as endorsing Romney but I think it may be the death knell for Obama in Wisconsin. They’re not giving up, though, either Obama, Michelle or Biden are always someplace in the state.
Minnesota will go Romney.
A Minnesota Same-Sex Marriage Amendment, Amendment 1, will appear on the November 6, 2012 ballot in Minnesota.
Religious traditional marriage supporters will come out of the wood works to defeat it, and they won’t shoot down the Amendment and support President Obama at the same time.
I have thought for about two months Romney would get 315-320. He is going to get most of the swing states. I’d be surprised If he got Minnesota. If he does, we’re talking big land slide. Romney has started an advertising buy there. He has also started to buy TV in north western Maine which has overlap into eastern NH.
I note Roger is giving PA to Romney. If Romney is able to pull that off we may see him cross 270 before 11:00 pm eastern time.
Here’s to a sweep that carries the Senate as well. The progressive cause is an anti Constitutional movement that is beligerant towards humanity. It needs to suffer a very firm repudiation.
Why is Obama expected to win Maine? A state with 2 Republican(ish) Senators, a Republican Governor and a Republican legislature. I don’t get it.
Cuz the Obama White House buys lots of lobstah.
Old Soldier,
Maine is an odd political mish mash with lots of liberals in the greater Portland area and a good spread of same in Augusta and Lewiston Auburn. The rural conservative voters just get out numbered. Very high state taxes. Beautiful state. It’s a real shame.
If Romney can pull one electoral college vote out of the northwest part of the state, that’s huge.
LOL! I like your collective noun for liberals…”a spread of liberals.”
OLD,
From another OLD,
I know my short term memory is starting to show its wear and tear, but did not O’Bummer shanghai TWO MAINE SENATORS and Pennsy’s Spector the Defector to bulldoze his Laffordable Health Care Bomb into law before anyone could read it?
Must be those lobsters are getting tainted with too much mercury.
I read an article this morning on Drudge.
The author seems to think that problems caused by the storm heading up the coast (Sandy) may reduce voter turnout next week along the mid & upper Atlantic seaboard.These states are mostly Democratic blue states & may reduce the popular vote for Obimbo.
This is anecdotal of course, but while I think the storm may very well keep some Democrats home I don’t think it’ll effect Republican turnout. I keep hearing phrases like “I’d crawl through broken, salty glass to vote against that guy”.
I’ll swim if I have to.
Wild horses… etc.
Ahem…James, that’s crawl over broken, salty glass NAKED ON MY BELLY, if you please. Hurricanes? Meh.
My wife and I, and a number of friends, would belly crawl salty glass with pre ranged mortar rounds going off and risk death by sniper to get to our local polling place on the 6th. I have an 84 year old neighbor who is going with my wife and I to vote. I don’t even have to ask her if she would take the same risks.
IN SNOW. Uphill. Both ways. With two broken legs.
And that’s just me.
I’m in a state that will definitely go red (Alabama). Doesn’t matter. I will crawl on my knees to vote for Romney. We need a hugh popular vote count or the dems will accuse us of voter fraud.
Seems like even the heavens don’t want Obama re-elected!
One of the tidbits I learned in my Poli Sci classes is that foul weather favors Republicans. Democrats don’t like to go out in nasty weather, but Republicans do their duty rain or shine.
Hmm… Why does the word “feckless” pop into my mind here…..?
Don’t forget to tell your Democrat and Liberal friends and family to get out and Vote Nov 7th.
Folks, are you under the impression that the election is next week? First Tuesday in November, people. I doubt if Hurricane Sandy will be having much effect on turnout 11 days from now on Nov 6. Maybe you’re talking about early voting? So do your part to turn out all your like-minded friends and get them to the polls.
Cecil, the last time a big storm like this went through the area, it was two weeks before our power was back on (and we live in the suburb of a good-sized city). The meteorologists are saying that since this storm is hitting a Canadian Cold Front, there will be about two feet of snow on it’s Western edge, 10 inches of rain on the Eastern edge, and tropical force winds across a 900 Mile diameter front – it’s going to be pretty dramatic.
How much effect will it have on polling areas when their power has been out that long? What effect will it have on people who haven’t been able to get petrol because there hasn’t been any power for the merchant’s pumps for over a week?
As one of my fellow bloggers over at Ace of Spades puts it:
GALLUP ADMITS 3 POINTS LEAD IN REPUBLICAN PARTY AFFILIATION!
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158399/2012-electorate-looks-like-2008.aspx
This is huge for those who have been following polling with these crazy 2008 samples. Gallup now tells us it is utterly bogus despite the fact they continue to do it!
In 2008 the electorate was 54/42 Dem/Rep. In 2012 it is 46/49 Dem/Rep, a MASSIVE shift. Yet every major pollster right now is using a D +5 Sample. This is inexplicable.
Gallup is telling us the sample shoukd be R +3! If that is the case Romney is actually FAR ahead now and every single poll is wrong. We are looking at a Romney landslide.
Great link – thank you!
Check out Dave in Florida’s polling site:
http://difpolls.blogspot.com
He’s a poll-geek and number-cruncher and has a pretty fair/unbiased analysis. He usually updates a couple times a day. Worth following up to the election
Ok, that’s just weird! They draw the strangest conclusion, that is completely disconnected from their own evidence. They give a slight advantage to Romney, when it appears that their is a 14pt swing in voter identification! From 12 down to 2 up! Actually, it’s just back to normal, a lot of voters in 2008 felt social pressure to disassociate from Bush and social pressure to support Obama.
I literally pray that this is a blow-out for Romney.
Pray. And take 10 people to the polls with you! GOTV!
I would feel much more confident about this if Rasmussen showed the same overall advantage…
Your thoughts?
They do! And just like Gallup, they ignore it and weight their polls +3 D
The D+5 already has the (or part of the) Dem voter fraud calculated in, see it as a public service by the pollsters to do it like that.
Without it, the R+3 might be more accurate. With it, I expect D+7 to be more appropriate and Obama is going to carry the day with a massive “victory”.
I think this kind of outcome is plausible if some of the things us Republicans think are true – like the putative preference cascade. Of course Nate Silver is arguing just the opposite in the dear old NY Times. No surprise, but it very easy in this close a race to count votes that fail to materialize. I trust Jay Cost’s analysis more, not because he is a Republican, but because he is a real social scientist who understands that the road to delusion is paved with hope. So don’t get cocky, don’t fail to vote, and remember either way, it is going to take blood, sweat and tears for America to stave off collapse. My vote is currently winging its way to West Palm Beach via the Queensland and Northern Territory Air Service.
A snowbird? That is a demographic the Won hasn’t targeted yet.
What logic tells you and what the actual outcome will be are completely different. I fully expect Obama to win by a comfortable margin, not because people vote for him in large numbers, but because those who do vote for him do so many times.
And don’t forget the dead, who all vote democrat. The Zombie Apocalypse will be upon us as the dead will get Obama over the top in every single swing state.
This is my biggest fear as well, especially in Ohio.
Nonsense, and Romney will win Ohio by as much as 55/45.
Your lips to God’s ear, my friend.
This is pure fantasy. The chances of winning PA, for example, are zero. And just how many days must the RCP average of polls for Ohio sit at +2 Obama before we realize that we’re down in OH, by 2?.
A sober look at the campaign will reveal that Romney had exactly one really great night, the first debate – which did give him a lead, which he squandered. That night happened because of an aggressive stance, not showing BHO any respect or accepting his lies. After the Crowley incident, someone gave Romney the advice to ease off the throttle, to appear reasonable, “presidential”. Needless to say, the same advice was not given to Obama.
The numbers clearly show that Romney’s upward trend has slowed or stopped, Next week, they will move toward Obama. Why? Yes, its because his nasty antics in debate 3. Yes, its calling Mitt a BS’er in Rolling Stone. Yes, its that disgusting ad with the girl from “Girls”. They don’t give a fat rat’s arse about appearing presidential. They care about winning.
Maybe next time we’ll nominate a real fire-breathing conservative. Someone who’s as aggressive and downright nasty with the truth as our enemies (yes, enemies) with their lies. And we rid the terms “electable”, and “presidential” from our lexicon. One can dream.
Eeyore
“Maybe next time we’ll nominate a real fire-breathing conservative. Someone who’s as aggressive and downright nasty with the truth as our enemies (yes, enemies) with their lies. And we rid the terms “electable”, and “presidential” from our lexicon. One can dream.”
Yep, dream of carrying a few districts in Southern and Western states and being as irrelevant as the Natural Law Party and other collections of true believers.
That’s a terrible analysis of what is going on. If Obama is showing +2 in Ohio it’s only because theey are running D+8 polls. The reality is probably R+3/5. Do you really think all those coal miners in Ohio are going to vote themselves out of jobs by voting for Obama? That’s normally a 90% Democratic demographic that may vote 90% Republican this year. And that’s just the beginning.
Yes, Bill the professional pollsters are all wrong and you’re right. There’s a lot of that going around on our side just now. Everyone just knows that all the polls are mis-weighted. Well, consider this. These guys employ a boatload of statistics PhDs and thy’re weighting stuff together all friggin’ day. They see sum(Wi*Xi) in their sleep, and they dont get paid to be wrong all the time. We’re behind in Ohio, we’re behind in the election. Btw, Intrade just moved five points toward Obama. The polls will follow next week, guaranteed.
And Art, maybe you’re one those deluded Libs who believe Obama is actually a centrist. If so, I can’t help you. But what an Obama win will show is that these days you don’t win the undecideds by playing to the center. You win them by being a tough, nasty sob
Your mistake here is to believe those are the “professional” polls. They aren’t. Romney and Obama spend a million a month on the real professional polls. The ones that are accutate. The junk you read in the papers cost as little as the papers can spend so they can print something. You think Romney and Obama spend all that money for no reason? And that’s not even mentioning the endless reports on the D+8 polling that all the newspaper polls are using. This election has been Romney’s since the campaings began. Obama has never been close to the 50% he needs and the idea that he “won” the last two debates has alredy been proven false even by the polls you claim to believe.
Bill, Ok so Rassmussen’s not professional? He has Romney tied and no poll has ever had him ahead in OH. I know some some of these polls are better than others and some are outright BS. I get that. But some credibility has to given to the fact Obama leads every single day in the RCP average. Btw his lead went up a bit today. We’ll see what happens next week, but my guess is a strong move toward BHO. The polls have not fully baked in debate three or his other latest rounds of vileness.
Art is not a lib. He is a guy who has worked in politics most of his life, so he has that perspective. That was unnecessary ad hominem, and you should apologize.
You are speaking from fear, not faith. Mostly, the polls are wrong. There has been a massive swing from Obama to Romney. Part of it is the swing of the election from the first debate, and part of it is the polls doing their late correction, to salvage their reps, so as to stay in biz.
Just look around neighborhoods and talk to people. You’ll feel much, much better about things.
Remember this, just because they are moderates, does not mean they are wrong. If they think Romney going easy will appeal to people like them, well, it probably will, because there ARE people like them. Other people think differently from you. You may think them wrong in their views, and they may well be, but they vote their views, same as you. They get represented, too. Moderates know what appeals to moderates. You may not like it, but things are what they are.
Art: I’ve been called a troll on several sites for my general pessimism. It’s no fun, so sorry about that. But I look at the map, and I see a better chance of it turning all red than all blue. The question is, how to make that happen? Is it by continually running centrists, or authentic conservatives – unashamed, unbowed by political correctness, and not above a little nastiness for the cause? Needless to say, I prefer the latter. It’s how our opponents roll, and they’ve had some notable successes recently.
In the same vein, Marc, you have to admit we have had some rather poor luck with moderates of late. If Mitt breaks thru, then great. A good man. To my left, politically, but a good man. But if, as I strongly suspect, we’ve got another 4 yrs of BHO, then I would ask you – Who are the undecideds, really? Are they folks smack dab in the political center – a bit Nanny State, a bit Free Market, bipartisanship and all that good stuff? There may some of them out there, but if there were a lot, Mitt really would be heading for a landslide right now. More likely they’re waiting to be swept off their feet, looking for a cause, though they know not what. “Just give me somethin’ to believe in…”, as the crappy old song goes (o, you like that song, sorry). That certainly explains 2008, where the cause was stale, crackpot socialism. Lets try giving them conservatism at least once.
Btw, you’re darn right, I’m afraid. For one thing, if Obama wins, I see consolidation coming in my industry. And, of course, I have kids.
More to my point.
“This morning, Gallup released a bombshell survey of likely voters this November….In 2008, 54% of likely voters identified as Democrat or lean Democrat. 42% of likely voters identified as GOP or lean GOP. In other words, the electorate, including independents who lean towards a particular party, was D+12. This year, however, the Democrat advantage has disappeared. 49% of likely voters today identify as GOP or lean GOP. Just 46% of likely voters are or lean towards the Democrats. This is a 15-point swing towards the GOP from 2008 to an outright +3 advantage for the GOP. By comparison, in 2004, when Bush won reelection, the electorate was evenly split, with each party getting support from 48% of likely voters.”
Gallup “professional” enough for you?
Bill: Gallup does not show their statewide results. If they did, it would would show tie or slight lead Obama in Ohio. Just like every other one. Also, how do you explain the movement back to Obama on Intrade?
When are you going to actually address any of the points I’ve made. Intrade! Wow, there’s some reliable stuff. You said Obama was ahead nationally and there isn’t a poll anywhere showing that. My above post shows how rediculous the D+8 polling is in Ohio and elswhere. The polls your reading aren’t close to realistic and you seem to be ignoring those you don’t agree with.
It really isn’t that hard to figure out. The polls you are reading are D+8 and should be R+3 as my above post explained. That’s probably a 3 to 4 point swing in the overall vote. The Obama +1 in Ohio will be Romney +2 election night. The national Romney +4,5 will be +7,8 election night. But really just ignore all of that and continue to not get it.
Bill,
I’m not getting the reply click to your comments below, so up here. I never said Mitt was not leading nationally. I said he was losing in Ohio, and this would likely cost him the election. Also that undecideds were swinging back to Obama. That I believe is moving the Intrade numbers now and will move the polls next week.
Believe me, I understand the turnout weighting arguments. But so do the pollsters, and they have a financial incentive to make good predictions. This doesn’t mean they’re right or even very good at what they do. But it does mean, IMO, that you should pay attention to the RCP average, especially when its been very stable, as it has been in Oho. And no, I’m not going to try and counter your turnout arguments. I’m just saying that maybe they are not as determinative as you think. At any, rate I very much hope that you’re right and I’m wrong.
Also, I hope my hous does not get blown away by the hurricane.
“…they have a financial incentive to make good predictions.” No. They have a financial incentive to make their clients happy. In this case their clients are the MSM. 2+2=? And good luck with the storm.
i think that many voters have been looking for a reason to vote against obama for a long time. but they didnt want to be the first ones on the block to do it.
now, however, the genie of reality has escaped the PC bottle.
there is a tsunami of anti-obama sentiment out there. it cannot be denied, explained away, or squelched with charges of racism.
so people now feel its safe to vote against obama because they cant be accused of being racists. there is safety in numbers. if everyone is doing it, they can do it too.
and they will.
You make an interesting point. Then there are those who SAY they are voting for Obama…. but once they get in the voting booth their better instincts kick in. I’m hoping for a lot of these too. My 25 year old son and his friends (several are jobless) may be in this group….
They will come Stargirl, by the millions. “If you build it they will come.” the famous line from the movie “Field of Dreams.” Contrast that with Obama’s “You didn’t build that.” But he did build something, something that America does not like, want or need. So come November, they will come, by the millions, to tear down what he built and say in one loud and united voice “YOU CAN’T BUILD THAT.”
@13. stargirl Yours is the most insightful comment I’ve read so far!
Before-election polls are about who we “say” we are going to vote. “Say” is what we say to a stranger on the other side of a phone line. Lots of people answered “B.O” because of political correctness. But remember that there are many with enough brains to count the change in their pockets. I predict that B.O. will lose even some of the black vote in November 6 even if he wins by a squeak.
Fool me once…
Ignore the polls.
They look good for Romney now, but a few weeks ago we were all pointing out the flaws in them, no?
Right now, the polls are slanted so that Romney voters won’t feel bad about not voting. Romney’s in the lead–by a good margin, no need to go out in this storm, he’s got it.
The Dems need the vote close. One can only manufacture so many votes.
Ignore the polls, understand that the GOP needs a blowout, and get out there and make it happen.
Both sides manufacture the polls. In 2004, Fox was always showing a Kerry lead and CBS was always showing a Bush lead – the better to scare their partisans into going to the polls. Personally, I think a lot of blacks are playing possum and will show up en masse on election day. ; still could be a Romney victory if truly undecided voters say F*&k that S^%t. I called that Jim Moran hustle with the utility bills earlier last week.
I disagree Urban, I think that groups that traditionally don’t vote a lot, will revert to their old behavior. Including minorities and young adults. Obama will lose at least 5-15% of black vote through switching and apathy due to his radical social views.
The youth vote, is also a bit disenfranchised, and disillusioned. There will be a lot of “I voted for him and now it’s worse, why bother?”
Az, the same flaws we criticized before are still there. Mainly the criticisms focused on oversampling Democrats. Well, they still do that, but even with that bias, Romney is starting to consistently come out on top. So, the polls are still bogus, but in a way that suggests it’s even better for Romney.
Not sure what you’re saying about suppressing voter turnout. You suggest the pollsters are saying Romney’s ahead so that people will not be too motivated to go vote for him? I think that flies in the face of human nature — people love to jump on the bandwagon. Besides, I thought the reason that polls were biased in favor of Democrats was to make Obama’s re-election seem inevitable, and therefore suppress GOP turnout. It can’t go both ways — does a lead in the polls suppress turnout, or does trailing in the polls suppress turnout?
well this family from Michigan has 4 adults in the household that plan on voting form R&R
Bravo! Take some neighbors to the polls with you. Maybe your good sense will rub off on them in the car!
For another view, see http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/109162/let-team-romney-bs-you-about-nevada-just-not-about-tax-cuts.
Unfortunately, his evaluation of the “horse-race” sounds accurate to me,
Interesting title, coming from the ultimate pathological BSers.
Also, see how jauntily he picks up on the BS’er meme.
Excuse me…Obama didn’t invent BSing. It’s just the only shovel ready job he knows how to do.
I don’t see Romney winning Michigan, and Pennsylvania is at best a toss-up at this point. On the other hand, New Jersey may surprise us. And I think Romney takes New Mexico, which will offset Obama winning New Hampshire.
Trent Teleko had an interesting point about Minnesota… I had not considered that a state in play. But between what he pointed out, and Wisconsin leaning Romney, it could swing that state.
If Jersey does surprise us, do you think the Obama braintrust makes a post-concession speech stop at the Gloucester County Jail? (You idiots should have stole that bike AFTER the election!!!)
One word regarding the election: CHICAGO.
The voter fraud you read about here at PJ and other sources is only the tip of the iceberg. Obama won’t win the election but he will be “re-elected”.
Good analysis. The debates allowed some of the weak ideology voters (as in, I lean toward saving the Democratic Party, but I’m concerned about the economy too) to break away from a candidate they were uneasy with and go with one who offered, as a businessman with real world experience, a credible alternative.
Still, votes have, just as words do, consequences and it concerns me that a majority of likely voters in the blue states are perfectly fine with giving the Marxist another four and what this entails for the future of the country.
The Shire of Vermont is planning to secede in the event of a Romney victory. Anti-Orc sentiment runs high in the Land of Ben & Jerry. Comrade Bernie will serve as interim chief executive.
Suits me just fine.
Perhaps Commissar Bernie will establish his ancient dream of an American Worker’s Paradise.
Let’s hope they establish open borders for the “undocumented”. Businesses will be taxed at marginal rates of 70%. Montepelier will be renamed New Havana and an Obama Shrine will adorn the State House. Medical, housing, education, gasoline & food bills will be courtesy of the state.
One caveat: No foreign aid from the proles in the other 49 states! [Then we shall know how long parasites can exist without a host.]
It’s unlikely that Obama will win California’s 55 electoral votes. In 2011, Gov. Brown signed legislation assigning all California’s electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. And it looks like Romney will win the national popular vote.
Read the bill a little closer. There is a caveat that this will not go into effect until the other states approve the same. The 55 will go to Obama.
Rove turned optimistic on Hannity last night. It’s the first time, and a very good sign.
I must admit that all of this enthusiasm from my fellow conservatives is rather contagious, but my “Bork-ean” pessimism always seems to get the better of me.
Those who believe that Gov Romney is going to win Pennsylvania must remember Daniel Patrick Moynihan’s maxim that “everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts.” I have yet to see a poll that places Gov Romney within 5 points of a victory there. Even Rasmussen had Romney down 5 in Pennsylvania (10/25 poll). In terms of the red state/blue state scenario, I tend to think of Pennsylvania as Alabama and Mississippi with San Francisco in between. Unfortunately, that “San Francisco” is Philadelphia and that is where the unions/Democrats (really one in the same) will be pushing the vote out for President Obama.
Now, Rasmussen did have a poll today (10/26) that shows Romney tied with President Obama in Wisconsin (48-48). That would be key if Romney loses Ohio. If Romney loses the electoral votes in Ohio, he must win Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire to compensate–no easy task. I think Romney has a good chance in New Hampshire, but I still have trouble believing that either Wisconsin or Iowa swing our way.
At this point, I am inclined to agree with Jim Geraghty at NR. Romney wins the popular vote and loses the Electoral College because he loses a close race in Ohio.
The largest paper in Wisconsin announced today that the are not endorsing either candidate. From a leftist rag, that is a de facto admission that they’d prefer Romney.
http://gretawire.foxnewsinsider.com/2012/10/26/bad-news-for-president-obama-and-governor-romney-in-wisconsin/
I live in the Philly suburbs and have traveled the state. PA is a classic swing state. Right now Republicans control all of state government, are likely to increase their Congressional advantage from 12-6 to 14-4, and are close to electing a 2nd GOP senator.
The GOP has come up short in the past due to Dem strength in SW (Pittsburgh) and NE (Scranton) as well as Philly. This worsened as the Philly suburbs drifted left since 1988, leaving only central PA as a GOP bulwark. This year all of those Dem pillars except Philly itself are greatly weakened. They will run up the vote in Philly as always but this year the burbs and other regions will be offsetting that instead of complementing it.
I voted for Romney here in Utah. Unnecessary? Yes. I just did it to boost the popular vote. That’s important. If you live in a solid pick-your-color state, please go ahead and vote anyway. I’d be obliged.
Unskewedpolls.com has a realistic electoral map
What states will our divider in chief win?
1. Confusion
2. Incompetence
3. Denial
4. Failure
5. Dis ingenuousness
6. Criminality
Actually, he’s always had a lock on these various “states”.
The turnout will turn out Obama. For the Democrats it’ll be an Obummer.
With gas at record prices for this time of the year in many places just how many votes do you think Obama is going to get in areas where you need a car to get anywhere and every garage has one or more of these- ATV, snowmobile, boat with outboard motor- plus riding lawnmowers, chain saws, etc, etc, etc? That describes large parts of Maine, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. High gas prices aren’t just a budget buster. It’s sinking in that Obama’s energy, environmental and land use policies threaten cherished ways of life in the hinterlands just so a few affluent urban tree huggers can feel good about themselves.
This is shaking out like 1988 when the Republicans completely dominated the suburban, small town and rural vote. I’d look for at least two and perhaps as many as five of the states on Roger’s list to go for Romney.
I like that slogan. Hinterlands for Romney.
I’m still unchanged.
As I’ve said since July…
Obama will win, California, New York, Illinois, Vermont and the District of Columbia.
Obama May win Washington, Oregon, Maine, and Hawaii.
All other states will vote Romney.
The republicans will gain 12 in the Senate and hold the House with 7 to 11 seats gained.
The poll numbers don’t add up; they are just made up.
The Bullsh***er-In-Chief will be “re-elected” with cooked up fraudulent numbers.
The neo-commie regime is here to stay, for as long as conservatives sit down and take it.
I made my mind up 4 years ago who I’d be voting against in this upcoming election, but it’s only been in the last couple of months that I came to realize that Mitt will make a fine replacement. The more I listen to him the more convinced I am of that. It’s about time the Republicans run a successful businessman instead of some toady like McCain who just happened to be next in line for their turn to run.I knew that was a mistake, he didn’t want to be President. From the way he conducted his campaign it was obvious.He went out of his way to lose.Mitt on the other hand looks, acts and talks like a President.
They will come Stargirl, by the millions. “If you build it, they will come.” the famous line from the movie “Field of Dreams”. Contrast that with Obama’s infamous “You didn’t build that.” But he did build something, something that America does not like, want or need. So come November, they will come, by the millions, to tear down what he built and say in one loud and united voice ” YOU CAN’T BUILD THAT!”
The magnitude of the electoral fraud (especially in minority precincts) is clear, when one takes a look as an example at what happend/s in Cuyahoga County, Cleveland, OH.
Novemebr 4, 2008 election results: total votes cast 658K (Obama – 458K, McCain – 200K) over 850K eligible voters(!!!) for a ratio of about 77.4% Parenthetically, big Zero won Ohio by a total vote count less than the 258K difference in this inner city Cleveland County.
Now, in all of Ohio the 2008 ratio of votes to eligible voters was about 66% (5.7 million votes to 11.5 eligible voters); whereas in the whole of the US that ratio was about 57% (about 131 million votes cast over about 228 million eligible voters).
The voter counts out of minority precincts in certain inner cities in certain States in the US isn’t worth the paper printed on. The magnitude of the electoral fraud in these Counties is really beyond comprehension.
Example:
http://www.humanevents.com/2012/10/26/is-voter-fraud-being-committed-in-ohio/
It seems that the magnitude of the fraud, and not only in Ohio, is such that the integrity of the elections (since 2008) is compromised beyond repair.
Oh ye counting NM too.
All I’ve heard lately is that the whole thing is going to come down to Ohio. Obama and Romney seem to think so too. And Obama leads in Ohio.
There is nothing I want more than for Obama to lose. Can someone explain to me why it seems to be conventional wisdom here that O will lose Ohio? Thanks.
One word: FRAUD. Please, read my comment above.
Another article on the subject of electoral FRAUD:
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331798/ithe-new-yorkeri-s-voting-myths-hans-von-spakovsky
The radical left, in a typical Alinsky-ite type tactic, tries to deflect the issue by countering with the phony charge that the right attempts “voter suppression.”
RT to host final US presidential third-party debate Get short URL email story to a friend print version Published: 26 October, 2012
http://rt.com/usa/news/rt-third-party-debate-stein-249/
This is my first visit here and I gotta say, I didn’t think it was a comedy site. Romney will break 300 EV’s when Hell freezes over and no sooner. Have you looked at any polls at all this year?
No doubt here buddy; the BSer-In-Chief will steal the election Chicago style.
Sir, have you looked at any of the pollsters?
It requires more than a casual glance!
Works for me, Joey; read The Divine Comedy and realize that The Newspaper is going out with the spoiled on 6 November.
The upcoming election was the major topic of discussion while I was getting a haircut today. Strong support for Romney here in Texas which isn’t surprising, but people are much willing to publicly express their opposition to Barack Obama. Back in 2008 there was a social stigma against expressing a negative opinion about Obama and McCain just didn’t inspire much confidence. In 2012 it’s OK to saw Obama isn’t getting the job done and needs to be replaced.
Also seeing a similar phenomenon among my Facebook friends. Attractive single women openly show support for Romney Ryan. Commenters on the left is much more vocal than the right, but the left no longer shouts down the right. The social stigma against supporting Romney Ryan is mostly gone.
wrong again roger obama will take 300 ev’s