What States Will Obama Win? (First in a Series)
For some months, I have been predicting that Romney would not only win but win big. I have a number of lunches and other small wagers riding on the outcome, so I have been cheered by Team Romney’s meteoric rise in the polls recently.
I understand the wisdom of Yogi Berra’s observation that it’s not over till it’s over. Harold Wilson was surely right that a week is a long time in politics.
Still, while not exactly counting the chickens before they hatch, I am drawing up a menu that features poulet for the main course. I think there will be plenty to go around.
How much, exactly? Well, now we enter the realm of the parlor game. But I observe that people actually pay good money to places like the Gallup organization to do this sort of thing, so I thought I would take a shot at it too.
The lay of the land will be a lot clearer, I suspect, Monday at 11:01 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. And I will have occasion to return to this theme from time to time and offer updated guesses (for between you and me, Kemo Sabe, that’s what we’re talking about in all this commentary about the election, guesses). But for now, here’s how I see things shaking out. It will be much quicker to list the states that I think Obama will win, adding alongside the number of Electoral College votes they command. Starting from beyond the Left coast:
- Hawaii (4)
- Washington (12)
- Oregon (7)
- California (55)
- New Mexico (5)
- Illinois (20)
- Michigan (16)
- Iowa (6)
- New York (29)
- Washington, DC (3)
- Maryland (10)
- Delaware (3)
- New Jersey (14)
- Connecticut (7)
- Rhode Island (4)
- Massachusetts (11)
- Vermont (3)
- Maine (4)
That’s seventeen states and one enfranchised dependent sinkhole for a grand total of 223 electoral votes, leaving Mitt Romney with 33 states and 315 electoral votes. I acknowledge that Wisconsin (10) might go to Obama as of course might Ohio (18). But 315 – 28 = 287, i.e., Romney still wins. [Update: I forgot Minnesota: another possible, indeed, likely, 10 for Obama: Romney still gets at least 277.]
There are obviously variations on this scenario. Most that I ponder have Romney winning, and winning comfortably, And let’s not forget that there are other scenarios that put Michigan and Iowa (and maybe even others) into play.
I believe President Obama likes to make guesses about who will basketball games. Here’s my first entry into a kindred psephological pastime.
Obama wins Iowa, but not Pennsylvania?
He may take Iowa, probably not PA. My guess Romney takes the popular (I know it’s a no brainer) but loses the electoral vote.
and the disgusting thing is that even if Obama looses the popular vote by a couple percent but manages to eke out a victory on electoral votes, he’ll still claim a sweeping mandate to play king.
The Obama campaign ran tens of millions of dollars worth of negative ads in the states they believed were the decisive states. But they apparently did not blanket the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, or at least not the extent that they have in Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Nevada and maybe a couple others.
So in several key states, the voters did not have a negative preconception of Mitt Romney; and after the first debate, their opinions were based on the real Romney and not the false image planted by Obama in the so-called swing states.
And now the Democrats are running low on money, and probably do not have enough to turn back the Romney tide.
Forgive me O Great and Powerful One, but your list of states totals 213 EV, not 233.
…Pennsylvania maybe?
RealClearPolitics had a flip in the electoral, with Romney narrowly ahead. But the no-toss-up still has Obama winning by 7 electoral votes. We are also in trouble in the Senate; Romaney’s concentrating on the swing states may be necessary, but it kills the coattails.
RCP No Toss Ups has Obama winning by 16, with 277 EVs, 7 more than the 270 needed to win.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
Since the polls close from east to west, everyone will be watching the early states. Anything out of place from that map and we may know the outcome early.
The good thing about that RCP No Toss Ups of Obama +17 is that a day or two ago it was Obama +50.
I suspect every state is in play right now except those with extra large colonies of barking moon bats. Just because no one is running ads in those states doesn’t mean people there don’t talk. I’d take a second look at states with large suburban populations and weak mass transit systems. Surprises are indeed possible as $3.80/gallon gasoline trumps a great many other political and philosophical considerations.
My state isn’t in play. Mr. Romney will win Idaho walking away.
I agree. You utterly underestimate the common sense of the American people. The drones will definitely vote for Obama, but as yet there are not more drones than Americans and a lot of the Drones are too busy doing nothing than to go out and vote.
After Romney’s big win, I wonder how long the media will be lamenting America’s intolerant racism.
For some reason I think they’ll ignore the opportunity to report that finally, in a landslide, America has overcome religious bigotry by electing our first Mormon president!
It’s far more simple than that, I’m just voting for competence.
Romney wins Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pa,and maybe even Oregon.
You are setting yourself up for disappointment.
Listen, we all know that a second Obama term will be horrific, we also know that the there is something wrong with an electorate that is stupid enough to elect this knave-empty suit to the most important position in the world. Sooner or later the dopes who voted for Obama will have to recognize being a smooth talker and sexy are no guarantee of competence or trustworthiness. Unfortunately the stupid only learn through pain; at the least the pain that economic depression will provide, or maybe even Iranian nukes in our ports.
Let’s remember the twice tragedies of having an Obama elected once and is a serious candidate for a second term.
I am in AZ. I got a call from Romney asking me to support Jeff Flake. They are spending money here.
Mr Kimball–
I wish that I shared your optimism, but I do not see how Pennsylvania goes red this year. No GOP candidate since George H.W. Bush has won the state and with one million more registered Democrats than Republicans, it is highly unlikely that Romney can get enough turnout in the center-right portions of the state to overcome those numbers. Beyond that, the unions will be working hard for President Obama and turnout in Philadelphia is almost certain to be strong.
Moreover, I have trouble seeing how the state that returned Harry Reid to the US Senate in 2010 (an overwhelmingly Republican year) will somehow turn President Obama out in 2012.
I am beginning to think along the same lines as Bob from Virginia. Romney takes the popular vote but loses in the Electoral College.
Jeremie,
Regarding Pennsylvania, one word: coal
Regarding Nevada, three words: Harry Reid. Unemployment.
There is still a massive hidden contempt for the Fraud that isn’t showing up in the polls. Even many of his groupies (like Jon Stewart) know that the man is, at best, incompetant, and more probably an extremely danger to the future of the country. They aren’t all idiots.
The concept of a preference cascade makes a lot of sense. It probably accounted for millions of votes for the Fraud in 2008 and it can do the same for Romney in 2012.
If Romney comes across as presidential, knowledgable and reasonable tonight, there will be an additional large movement to his corner. And it will be necessary, because you can bet your last dollar that the marxists know which states are most amenable to voter fraud and are concentrating their criminal activities in those states.
I will restate, once again, my prediction;
Obama will win, California, New York, Illinois, Vermont and the District of Columbia.
Obama May win Washington, Oregon, Maine, and Hawaii.
All other states will vote Romney.
The republicans will gain 12 in the Senate and hold the House with 7 to 11 seats gained.
And Gary Johnson will be a footnote next to John Anderson in the History Books
Sorry but I just can’t see Romney winning MD, CT, DE, MA or RI. Just don’t see it. I think Romney will takes CO, OH, VA, FL, PA, IA, NH and WI. Obama takes MI and MN. Voter fraud is my only concern. The Dems will cheat. Bank on it.
jd: With wins/majorities for the Repubs in House and Senate, how can Obama achieve anything of importance if re-elected? He resorted to nightly ‘sessions’ when passing his infamous Obamacare bill – and he had a Majority at the time!
If the One never could handle Congress in 2009-12, how come he can do so in 2013-16?? Furthermore Solyndra, Fast and Furious and other scandals will stick to him like glue for YEARS!!
Are Democrats perennially preoccupied with symbolism – Promoting Their Man??
Perhaps another four years of grandstanding by BHO will finally see the Democrats buried for good. Let’s see: Titanic(1912), Hindenburg Air Ship(1931) – and:
Democrats(2016)????
I think there is a chance that NJ will go for Mitt. I am basing my thoughts not on the polls but on where the donations are going. Last data I saw showed the Repubs getting a slightly larger percentage of all donations. This is a huge change from 2008 and even 2010 where the vast majority of the donations went to the Dems.
NJ is the suburbs is ‘mildly pink’. If you get a low turnout from the deep blue I-95 corridor, NJ (by a small margin) will go for Romney.
I’m with you, #11 – I see tons of Romney/Ryan signs here in NJ, at least in my little neck of the woods. Had a bunch of guys crowding around my OMG (Obama Must Go) bumper sticker at the Sunoco station last Friday. Even more heartened to see them come around the car with big smiles and see who it was in the driver’s seat (a woman!) and give words of agreement. By demonizing the “rich,” The Chosen One has offended lots of people in NJ. Fingers crossed he’s gone. We don’t need his demonization of an entire portion of the citizenry!
If Ahmadinejad were running against Romney, Ahmadinejad would get most of those states
As with other commenters, I agree that Obama will almost certainly take Pennsylvania. She is an sempiternal heartbreak for the GOP and conservatives. She’s a tease. Only if Romney maintains a 5%+ lead nationally will GOP have a good shot there.
I would not give up Iowa to Obama and neither will Mitt or Paul.
Maine is a state that votes by congressional district and I think we could pluck one electoral vote there.
Michigan will, of course, disappoint. Obama has led steadily there and continues to. Unless there is an overwhelming tide rising for Romney in the last two weeks, O will hold it.
Minnesota is far too blue. It remains an Obama hold.
New Mexico will be very close, just a few thousand votes one way or the other. I would prefer not to concede it yet. But it will fall within the MoC, the margin of cheating. New Mexico’s politics are notoriously corrupt and insular. O will probably cheat his way to victory.
I would definitely not concede either Ohio or Wisconsin. Wisconsin is a ground game that I think Romney-Ryan-Preibus-Walker win. Ohio feels like a momentum play with Romney picking up thousands of votes each day.
That’s my pseph.
PA is not a tease, PA is a con. Philly fraud delivers enough D votes to keep PA blue, and by enough, I mean however many is required. If that is 10k votes, 100k votes, or 500k votes, Philly fraud is scaled to keep PA blue. The Philly GOP is destroyed, there is no opposition. A combination of the state and national GOP should put enough resources to structurally mitigate and reduce the fraud. PA doesn’t need GOTV, Philly needs election monitors and election lawyers.
The problem is that the Presidential campaigns are inherently focused on one single election cycle, and it is in no single campaign’s best interests to putting resources into breaking Philly fraud. But if the GOP doesn’t do it, PA will remain blue in any scenario where it matters essentially for ever.
For another view see http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map.
So Romney might win the popular vote but not the EC vote?
Now let me see: if the great Zero is ahead in populationwise big States like California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio and New Jersey with such huge margins as the LSM state “polls” suggest and Romney is ahead with much lower margins in Texas and Florida, how is it mathematically possible for Romney to be ahead in the Nationwide popular vote?
And for sure Romney is ahead in all national vote polls – even those conducted by Zero’s pet pollsters.
Something simply doesn’t add up.
Governor Romney has a large lead in the southern states. It looks like the polls have settled on a popular vote victory for Governor Romney and an electoral vote victory for President Obama. Ohio could swing to Romney if he plays his cards right. But I was just there a few days ago and right now it’s not looking good.
What part of Ohio? Generally the NE area- Cleveland, etc.- where Dennis Kucinich came from- is bat shit crazy union loving liberals. Central Ohio- Columbus and surrounding area- (where I’m from) can go either way but from what I’m observing it’s really heavily FOR Romney right now. Cincinnati and most of the rest of southern Ohio is usually very heavily GOP.
As long as there is strong Republican/independent turn out, Romney will win Ohio. People are really sick of Obama and his rude crude slam ads- even some die hard Dems I know are sitting this one out because they can’t stomach BO any more!
Pennsylvania has a good chance to go Romney. I have read they purged some of their voter rolls of dead people, pets, whatever. Phildelphia may have a bunch of vote fraud but it right now has Romney ahead by 4 points. Wisconsin I think will go Romney, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, North and South Carolina and I would not be surprised if Iowa goes for Romney. I think Vote fraud will be tried but if it is tired on too bigt of a scale the electorate will be calling for all absentee ballots to be rechecked and validated to see if they are from true people in the state who are citizens. We are in no humor for vote fraud in this election. Romney is going to win this thing.
I like to think that I follow the polling data as closely as anyone out there, but I see no evidence that Gov Romney is within striking distance in Pennsylvania or Nevada (let alone states like Minnesota). Outside of one PPP poll from early last week, most of the numbers out of Ohio show Gov Romney continuing to trail by four or five points and those are very similar to the numbers in Wisconsin and Iowa.
In his latest column, Charlie Cook points out that “With a race this close, small but important factors will likely be key. About 4 million more Latinos are registered to vote this year than in 2008, and Obama has the support of 69 to 70 percent of them, according to the polls—a finding that tops his 67 percent showing in 2008.” That makes it increasingly difficult for Gov Romney to win states like Colorado and Nevada.
I want to see Gov Romney win as much as anyone and while I believe the election will remain close, I think that the Electoral College math still works in President Obama’s favor.
He will carry exactly ONE state.. HAWAII
They still love him here!
It’s really depressing that states like Iowa and Minnesota might go for Obama.
Romney’s map without Ohio must involve Iowa and New Hampshire & one other.
Big eastern states can be stolen by voter fraud in places like Philadelphia.
But Iowa? What is wrong with those voters?
Also saddening, is the electoral advantage Democrats have generally.
The GOP used to have an advantage. What happened?
Just my opinions:
1. Bush’s ‘compassionate consevativism’ with futile, bloody wars.
2. Many are turned off by the evangelical constituencies
3. The perception of being anti-immigrant has hurt the GOP a lot in some states.
4. Perhaps a growing number of Americans are morally corrupt, ignorant, lazy and stupid.
Such voters are a natural constituency for Obama/Biden.
But some of it is our fault. Alas, the GOP is not perceived as the party of Reagan and Goldwater anymore.
I’m hoping Romney can win and restore some of what we’ve lost.
I’m in OHIO and most people here in Central Ohio are dead set for Romney. The problem is NE Ohio- the liberal bat-shit crazy Cleveland area who don’t understand that the unions and the Democrats have made that area the desolate hole it is. Romney CAN take Ohio and if the Republican/independent turnout is what I think it will be, he surely will. Especially as BO (and his ideological soulmate, Sherrod Brown) keep on running their disgusting smear ads that are even cheesing off die-hard Democrats. Obama has become the candidate he warned us of in 2008- if you don’t have an agenda or a plan you demonize the other guy. BO is BAD NEWS for Ohio in particular on many fronts but especially in his war on coal. If you pay an electric bill in OHIO you better worry because your electric power comes from coal. The only reason Ohio has not entirely become the southern annex of Detroit is thanks to Governor Kasich- but Kasich could use some help- which Obama will certainly NOT provide.
You were wrong!! Obama one more term