Cresting the Hill
Suppose the President’s campaign is falling apart? The Washington Times reports that the Obama campaign is explaining small turnouts by arguing that it is intentionally limiting crowd sizes. It is isn’t that the masses have abandoned the President. It’s just that the rooms are smaller. As early as June Ed Driscoll believed he was watching a preference cascade unfold. A preference cascade happens when suddenly you realize everyone’s been thinking what you’ve been thinking, as in “the emperor has no clothes”.
Now Powerline says the latest FEC filing shows that the now has less in his campaign war chest than Romney. Obama had more money; only his blown his wad and couldn’t scare up enough money to replace it.
The numbers are pretty stunning, and bode well for Mitt Romney. The Obama campaign has been spending money like water. That is partly due to what appears to be an inefficient operation, and partly due to Obama’s attempt to smear Romney before Romney has a chance to introduce himself to voters. The result is that as of the end of July, the Romney campaign had $185.9 million on hand, compared with $123.7 million for the Obama campaign. These totals include the campaigns, their respective national party committees and joint victory funds that raise money for both.
If a preference cascade is actually unfolding in the actual teeth of an Obama campaign offensive it will recall those fatal moments in history when a desperate roll of the dice came up Snake Eyes. It evokes Colonel Ishiki at Guadalcanal hurling his doomed regiment into the water-cooled Browning .30s at the Tenaru Creek. It conjures up the Old Guard failing for the last time at Waterloo. (“La Garde recule. Sauve qui peut!”) But on the other hand it may also the deceptive noon before the darkness falls; it could be Romney enjoying Nagumo’s moment before the Enterprise’s dive bombers found his carriers.
When we read historical accounts it is important to remember that almost nobody on the scene knew how it was going to turn out. The Iron Duke at one point declared that “Night or the Prussians must come!” He did not know which. In the event it was the Prussians who came. And we know the rest.
But if there is one quotation to remember Wellington by it was his observation that information was obtained by taking a risk. He, along with the other great commanders understood that data came back in a continuous stream from the forward edge of battle. “All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavor to find out what you don’t know by what you do; that’s what I called ‘guessing what was at the other side of the hill.’” What’s on the other side of November, 2012? And why would a man take the risk of finding out. Why? Perhaps Napoleon knew the answer. “Glory is fleeting but obscurity is forever.” At any rate it is a compelling drama to watch. How did Conan Doyle’s Gerard imagine Waterloo?
But slaughter was no new sight to me, and it was not that which held me spellbound. It was that up the long slope of the British position was moving a walking forest-black, tossing, waving, unbroken. Did I not know the bearskins of the Guard? And did I not also know, did not my soldier’s instinct tell me, that it was the last reserve of France; that the Emperor, like a desperate gamester, was staking all upon his last card? Up they went and up–grand, solid, unbreakable, scourged with musketry, riddled with grape, flowing onward in a black, heavy tide, which lapped over the British batteries. With my glass I could see the English gunners throw themselves under their pieces or run to the rear. On rolled the crest of the bearskins, and then, with a crash which was swept across to my ears, they met the British infantry. A minute passed, and another, and another. My heart was in my mouth.
They swayed back and forward; they no longer advanced; they were held. Great Heaven! was it possible that they were breaking? One black dot ran down the hill, then two, then four, then ten, then a great, scattered, struggling mass, halting, breaking, halting, and at last shredding out and rushing madly downward. “The Guard is beaten! The Guard is beaten!” From all around me I heard the cry. Along the whole line the infantry turned their faces and the gunners flinched from their guns.
“The Old Guard is beaten! The Guard retreats!” An officer with a livid face passed me yelling out these words of woe. “Save yourselves! Save yourselves! You are betrayed!” cried another. “Save yourselves! Save yourselves!”
Belmont Commenters
How to Publish on Amazon’s Kindle for $2.99
The Three Conjectures at Amazon Kindle for $1.99
Storming the Castle at Amazon Kindle for $3.99
No Way In at Amazon Kindle $8.95, print $9.99
Money can’t buy you love. Maybe it can’t buy you hate, either.
If Obama goes down, is the French Revolution finally over, or is it still going on in Egypt, etc.?
i am waiting for obama to slip into hysteria, on camera, soon. like captain queeq on the stand.
Just remember that we’re still far from the clubhouse turn.
November 6 is still about 2 1/2 months away, and “October Surprise” season is 1 1/2 to 2 months away. A lot can still happen.
KRB
The Liberal Plantation media is the Old Guard and they are exhausting their credibility and turning bankrupt.
Obama is personally lying like a trooper, demanding that we believe him.
At some point the voters will start to walk away from the Obama snakeoil wagon.
The flood has crested; this is the moment when the rise of the oceans began to recede. ;^)
Speaking of quotes from dead white guys:
When some Prime Minister was asked what worried him the most in the upcoming year he replied: “Events, dear boy, events.”
But as Wellesley and Napoleon both knew, you can’t win if you don’t play.
The manner in which a man responds to challenges strikingly illustrates his character, or lack thereof. In the last 90 days or so Obama’s has slipped ever lower and surprisingly to me Romney’s has risen. For the first time in almost four years I have a smidgeon of faith in the future. But first we must survive October.
MALTHUS @6;
LOL!
Be it blustery Santa Ana’s or even an “unexpected” Sirocco, I’m awaiting the ill wind that will topple all those Styrofoam columns amongst which our naked emperor to be once reveled in the dim glow of teleprompter wisdom.
Maybe, to paraphrase Instapundit, free Americans really are still inclined to forming packs rather than herds.
Does a $60M advantage in campaign cash for Romney matter all that much when you add in the untold value of Obama’s media support? While the media is not quite as girlishly infatuated with Obama as in 2008, they are still viciously anti-Romney and anti-Ryan and will let nothing drop. I expect we’ll be hearing about Akin for weeks.
And then there are the debates. Why, oh why, do Republicans agree to these one-sided affairs? If I were Romney I would insist loudly that the designated moderator is a known partisan and we will not participate in debates unless a second moderator that we approve is chosen. Screw them. But it won’t happen.
I expect this year’s debates will be more loaded then ever. The Akin kerfuffle might have quieted by then, but my guess is we won’t be three questions in before we get something like this: “Governor Romney, many have observed during this campaign season that the Republican war on women has escalated to new heights. If elected President, how would you continue the war on women and what specific plans do you have to further it?” Or something equally loaded.
The Middle East? Who knows what Obama plans.
Race? The attempt to blow up the Trayvon Martin fiasco seems to have fallen flat, but I’m sure they are on the lookout for the next Great White Defendant and some case somewhere will be cherry picked and blown out of proportion to excite the black electorate.
In the good news department, can I believe the reports that Romney has said the Fed should be audited? Is it possible he’s not just another shill for the banksters? Or is this just an attempt to get the Paul-bots out to vote?
Wretchard says: But if there is one quotation to remember Wellington by it was his observation that information was obtained by taking a risk.
The other quotation that I associate with the Iron Duke is his comment about the British troops at Waterloo: “I don’t know what effect these men will have upon the enemy, but by God, they frighten me.”
I think the Romney cash advantage should be seen as a kind of proxy poll. Think of it as a prediction market for wired people. Given how the President’s operatives have been going after Romney’s backers, they have got to know that if Obama wins there will be consequences for them.
Hence a dollar for Romney carries more information than a dollar for Obama. If you follow the rolls of Resistance movements in almost every case the steep part of the recruiting curve is when the forces in the castle seem strong. Almost until the end it takes more guts to join the rebel alliance than the imperial stormtroopers. But when the preference cascade kicks in, suddenly everyone wants to join the Resistance.
The fact that Romney can raise this money is less significant for what airtime it can buy as much as the fact that it came his way in such quantities at all.
Anybody know if the cover of Newsweek actually says “We Need A New President”?
Heard that on the Boortz show today but was too busy to make it to a store to see.
If true, that would be incredible.
RWE @ 13 : http://www.thedailybeast.com/content/newsweek/2012/08/19/niall-ferguson-on-why-barack-obama-needs-to-go/_jcr_content/body/inlineimage_4.img.503.jpg/1345413183554.cached.jpg
W: The fact that Romney can raise this money is less significant for what airtime it can buy as much as the fact that it came his way in such quantities at all.
Excellent point. And dare I say it… cause to hope.
There are many yet-waggable dogs.
As far as broadcast media, ratings rule. The biggies, except for FOX, are losing money hand over fist. Ted Turner was a billionaire when he started CNN. He was a millionaire when he sold it. MSNBC has Gates money behind it. I suspect Bill will change things when losing a mill plus every day starts to hurt. So the conventions will be a weather vane for the networks. The the (R) convention gets good ratings and the (D) gets bad ones, the bandwagon will start to get crowded.
After all, the won was going to bring utopia. A chicken in every pot, a Lexus in every garage. Only it didn’t quite work out that way.
When the low browed, loose morals, ill mannered beasts of Journalism figure out that they have been had they will turn on Berry. He will find out why when arm wrestling a snake, you do not grab it by the tail.
Celer, Silens, Mortalis.
Back in 2008 I talked to a lot of “non-leftist” Democrats and was surprised that they often agreed with what I said: that there was too much money and power concentrated in DC. They figured that if we’re going to do all this stuff from Washington they would rather have the Democrats in charge than Republicans. The attacks that the media and Democrats make on the “extreme Republicans” may actually cause these voters to give them another look — as would the performance of Democrats in power. A campaign to give more control to individuals and communities rather than DC bureaucrats may well win the vote of many of these folks. If this is the case then the Democrats don’t understand the morale of their own troops.
I think the Romney cash advantage should be seen as a kind of proxy poll.
Of course you’d want to compare amounts raised, not amounts on hand, as proxy polls. Though amount on hand might be predictive. Though not if it’s embezzled off or otherwise not well and timely spent.
But then we want to remember who we’re dealing with on the Democratic side, where Obambus’ mastery of his domain is displayed by his ability to piss money away faster than anyone can possibly gather it, whether campaign funds or federal tax revenues.
s @ 17: MSNBC has Gates money behind it. I suspect Bill will change things when losing a mill plus every day starts to hurt.
Bill is only marginally attached to Microsoft anymore, and Microsoft I believe has already announced their exit from the MSNBC deal, a couple of months ago, effective whenever.
Rommneys cash advantage cannot erase the advantages Obama has. The electoral college math favors Obama by a huge margin. Obama needs only 270 electoral college vots. He can get that with just 20 states, especially the big ones that are heavily democratic such as CA, NY, IL, and the like. Obama has many built in advantages that cost him nothing, to wit:
1. At least 90% of all journalists, tv shows anchors, newspapers and the like are heavily democratic if not in the tank for Obama.
2. He need do nothing to get the Black vote.
3. He has bought the Hispanic vote thanks to the DREAM act.
4. The promise of reduced student loans will get him the college vote.
5. Everyone who benefits from affirmative action, government subsidies, welfare, crony capitalism, or other special priviledges can be counted on to keep the gravy trains running to them. And vote accordingly.
6. Democrats always cheat in elections. And always get away with it.
Your idea that the republicans are like Nagumo right before the Dauntlesses show up is right on the mark, Wretchard. Unfortunately.
I’m inclined to side w/#4.
We don’t yet know what the October surprise will be. All we know is that there WILL be one. IIRC, it was British PM MacMillan who was said to have responded with the quote “Events, dear boy, events” when asked what might change the course of the then-looming election. But events are ALWAYS pending. As are elections–at least for now.
Well various mavens who have done recent studies say that money spent on national or state wide broad cast TV is not as effective as it used to be. 10 million spent on phone banks, vote drives, and training at the retail level gets you more votes. Internet videos get seen by those who are more likely to vote than those who just watch broadcast TV especially from the networks. If you go into a town with a TV station and make yourself available to the local TV news you get more air time and for a whole lot less money. Turn out for Obama public speaking engagements is getting smaller and smaller. Nevada, Florida, Virginia, Ohio, West Virginia, and Possibly Pennsylvania are now in the tilt category for Romney/Ryan.
As to where Romney and Obama are now: Shelby Foote, a Mississippi native and author of a magisterial three volume history of the American Civil War once said something to the effect:
“For every Southern boy there is a moment in his life when it is still in the morning on July 3, 1863 and all things are possible–and the war can still be won.”
He was referring to Pickett’s Virginia Division charging towards Little Round Top in the early afternoon of July 3, 1863. 10,000 went forward–3,000 died, and in just 50 minutes from start to full retreat–the opportunity to win the war was gone forever.
I don’t know which of these candidates is Pickett/Nagumo, but I suspect that 50 minute disaster is going to happen pretty quick for one of them.
Likely debate questions:
Governor Romney how do you sleep at night with all the jobs you shipped overseas, your oppression of gazillions of brown and/or LGBT peoples, all the animals you’ve tortured, all the good Americans you’ve killed or will kill with your heartless, greedy policies while being married to a Mormon Marie Antoinette?
President Obama what’s your favorite puppy?
Spending money like water? Shocking.
I think Buraq is in trouble.
Watch this video:http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=gcTE44Galec#!
The election will be won or lost in Florida and the Upper Midwest. If Romney/Ryan takes Florida and takes a couple upper midwest states like Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan or Wisconsin, Buraq is done.
In this video Paul Ryan introduces his mom, Betty to a crowd of seniors in Florida. Not only does his speech destroy Buraq’s position on Medicare, but with his midwestern “aw shucks” delivery Ryan connects to the two critical demographics of seniors and the voters of the fly over farm state voters in a way Buraq could never in a million years.
I think you are watching a preference cascade unfolding before your eyes for R&R right here in this video that Buraq may never be able to come back from. It’s genuine Americana, not some slick snake oil con job from the street hustler from Chicago. And btw, that snake oil is not going down so tastefully the second time around- in fact people are gagging on it.
PA Cat 11,
Wellington also wrote of his troops, “the scum of the earth – the mere scum of the earth.”
The more they have to lose the more reason there is to expect them to hold nothing back. The greater the outrages they are tied to the less reason there is to expect any restraint in the future. We must be careful not to get trapped by those who claim to be on our side who are fantasists, conspiracy theorists, and violence obsessives. We must also be careful not to forget that many, maybe most in positions of influence, on the other side are fantasists, conspiracy theorists, and violence obsessives. We should expect outrage after outrage and maintain discipline under fire.
The genius of the Democrats is revealed. They have gone beyond “We make it up on Volume.” Now they are at the stage of “Velocity is beyond Substance.” Instead of packing in voters they just run from yelling at empty seats and small crowds in one location to another. If the cameras ever pull back they are toast, but they still control the editing process.
THE TEMPLE OF ADONIS
The Temple of Adonis high bestrides a hundred hills
And overlooks the harbor of our souls
It gathers up the rising sun whose glory it fulfills
And shines like beads of argent glowing coals
And yet upon inspection one observes the truthful jest
That shining columns made of Styrofoam
Hold up the tinseled structure in a manner that’s at best
An unsound way to build yourself a home
The Temple of Barack Adonis four years newly built
Is trembling in the gentle ocean breeze
And silent waves that creep ashore eat at the founding gilt
And Styrofoam foundations shake their knees
The blow will come as tempered winds gain strength in days to come
And fissures in the structure start to show
While columns made of Styrofoam move slowly out of plumb
And roof and walls of shoddy start to go
The Temple of Barack the Great, whose builders claimed would last
Beyond the lives of man a thousand years
Is coming down and coming down and coming down right fast
To weeping women crying false lashed tears
obama will win
SCYTL
it will be another Roberts/Obamacare moment for conservatives
then what?
SCYTL
they will even get the congress
then what will you do?
It is a while yet, but things look interesting. Obama’s presser was interesting in how detached he is from reality. Nothing new; I’ve never found anything he says to be connected to reality, but it was remarkable how blatant.
There is a saying in the world of marketing — 90% of all advertising is wasted; we just don’t know which 90%. Consequently, it is highly doubtful that the presidential election will turn on which candidate has more money to spend on electioneering. Although the relative magnitudes of funds available may be yet another sign that the Obama machine has turned into the OhDear! machine.
As for the customary October surprise, remember that not all political surprises are manufactured by the players. Some surprises are a genuine surprise to all participants, especially if those participants have been ignoring the warning signs — as most of our Political Class has been doing. Perpetual government deficit spending is unsustainable; but the failure mechanism — and timing — remain to be revealed. The appropriate historical analogy for today’s global Political Class increasingly looks like Custer’s 7th Cavalry in mid-June 1876.
There is a saying in the world of marketing — 90% of all advertising is wasted; we just don’t know which 90%.
When John Wanamaker first said that a century ago, only half of advertising was wasted. But then the advertising business was much smaller then and probably far more efficient.
Some surprises are a genuine surprise to all participants, especially if those participants have been ignoring the warning signs — as most of our Political Class has been doing.
Good point. There are a lot of perfectly predictable “surprises” cresting the hill all on their own. Queue an Instapundit post, “Unexpectedly…”
To add to Kin @ 32. There has been some who say the time is ripe for an Israeli attack on Iran. After November, Buraq may be too strong. If they attack and Iran blockades the straits of Hormuz, gas could go to
$5,6 or who knows what a gallon. Bye, Bye Buraq in that case.
Leading from behind means that you are willing to let events control you rather you attempting to control events.
As Clioman reminds us of Mac’s saying “Events, dear boy, events” . It is perhaps Buraq’s overweening arrogance, his belief in his own brilliance and his blatant laziness that could get him and as a consequence us, in the most trouble.
I don’t know which of these candidates is Pickett/Nagumo, but I suspect that 50 minute disaster is going to happen pretty quick for one of them.
The battle that comes to mind is a fictionalized one (likely based in fact, since POB tended to do that). In one of the Aubrey-Maturin novels, Jack is fleeing from a larger, more powerful ship down in the Roaring Forties. It’s a stern chase, so it’s a long chase, and they crack on amid the towering seas and howling winds for some days. Then, suddenly, as Jack is watching, the enemy loses a mast, broaches, and is swallowed by a towering wave. All gone in an instant, the ship, the crew, the threat. Poof.
Our political institutions are carrying too much canvas, desperatly trying to outrun the tsunamis of debt and disinvestment they have created. They’ve nailed their colors to the mast, but they can’t outrun the storm. Sooner or later, something is going to snap, and when it does, the rest of the ship is going to be unmanagable. Out political class, no great mariners to begin with, will lose control. Things will happen very fast, and the sea will swallow the institutions up.
When someone keeps throwing buckets of sh*t on you, you stand tall. After a number of buckets are thrown, people start noticing who is holding and throwing the bucket of sh*t.
You may be covered in sh*t, but you stand tall and keep your eye on the prize. You do not need to grab a bucket and retaliate. People get turned off by watching two guys throwing buckets of sh*t at each other.
Jeeze, what an analogy…..sorry…..
Back in 2008 the hippies down the street had an Obama sign in their yard. After the November election they took it down. They put it back up on the night of December 24th with Christmas lights to welcome the new messiah.
In 1972 Nixon won one of the greatest landslides in presidential history. In 1976 a survey was taken asking people who they voted for in 1972. Almost no one could remember (or at least reported) having voted for him.
Psychologists who study memory call this retroactive interference. Social psychologist explains it with cognitive dissonance.
I wonder if my neighbors (or the majority of Americans who voted in 2008) will remember their religious adoration of the One.
(put this in the wrong post)
I have told my friends that Romney cannot win but Obama can lose. With the addition of Ryan I now believe that it is possible for Romney to win but still unlikely; after watching Biden and Obama I feel even more strongly that Obama can lose.
An Israeli strike on Iran would have results too complex to predict. Will Obama call a meeting of the Security Council? Or will he send supplies? Or will he send carriers and bombers and submarines? I fear he is more likely to offer handcuffing support to Israel and then use that to try to promote nuclear disarmament. How will it affect the voters? He will probably offer just enough support not to lose the Jewish vote and not to completely alienate the Evangelicals, but it will be the weakest possible support he can get away with. And if he wins in November, heaven help Israel.
As to a preference cascade, let’s wait until the conventions. And as to other October surprises, besides Israel there is always the possibility that Biden will develop a sudden unexpected medical condition and Hillary will have to step up despite her personal reluctance. Europe could collapse, of course, but everyone from the IMF to every Central Banker to George Soros is working overtime to postpone that until after the election.
I am hoping for a 1980-like preference cascade but I am not counting on it. Perhaps a repulsion cascade against the incumbent.
A hot war adjacent to Iran would entirely overload the Oval Office’s decision tree.
With the stakes at issue I would not rule out the use of atomics.
Our navy is exposed in the Gulf to thwart Bibi — not to intimidate Tehran.
This obtuse gambit is driving Israel towards atomics… By ruining all other options.
What ever happens must be so profound that the atomics time-line is pushed out beyond 2018.
Bibi’s number one concern is to protect his national economy and defense base from the wrath to the Wan. This must cause Israeli action to be of serious prospect after the conventions yet before November 6, 2012.
I have a very hard time imagining the “anti-Kennedy, anti-FDR, quasi-Carter” getting a boost at the polls; he hasn’t got a martial bone in his body.
Much more likely he’ll devolve into his Gonnabee persona — and rant on like MacBeth or Richard III.
Such is karma.
#13 RWE-
“Anybody know if the cover of Newsweek actually says “We Need A New President”? “
I wouldn’t put too much stock in this. Very few read Newsweek, and at best this cover is an attempt to scare a few people who get government checks into the voting booth to save their income stream.
BOTP #20:
The first four of your points do not advantage Obama, versus 2008.
The election will turn on five and six, plus whatever college educated white women do.
Plus whatever surprises happen.
Sad to say.
In general, when reading the tea leaves about the outcome of this election, we are faced with a quandary. The behavior of the President and his campaign, and of the various leftist groups, can be interpreted two different ways. They seem to be going to the extremes in speech and in the policies they are attempting to emplace. Are they supremely confident, or are they doing these things out of desperation and a knowledge that their time is nearly up? And no, the answer isn’t “both”. If it is confidence, do they know something we cannot see? If it is desperation, are our own worries energy poorly spent?
40. no mo uro
It’s confidence…with a caveat.
The argument over the size and role of the federal governemnt is over and the limited government side lost. The question that is still left unanswered yet is who is going to run the governemt, who is going to keep ther hands on the levers of power? For the left, what good is a massive central goverment if they can’t, as Obama once opinded, reward their friends and punish their enemies?
KRB
KRB-
So you have resigned yourself to the idea that going forward, all we can look forward to is a giant government, an enslaved and disenfranchised private sector, government employees as de facto nobility, and a loss of freedom?
To the entire Western world looking like Detroit? A crony plutocratic autocracy indistinguishable from monarchy or pharoaonic government in its outcome? A boot stamping into a face forever? Christians killed off in their entirety in death camps?
Just plain give up?
If so, why bother waking up in the morning? If you really believe that, then why not just off yourself?
Answer me this – when that government burns through whatever wealth is left (and it isn’t much) what will sustain it? JMH’s comments in post #35 apply.
This picture says it in a nutshell. When I saw this picture I knew the campaign was going off the rails.
http://nymag.com/news/features/barack-obama-2012-6/index2.html
BH0 has a lot of time to pull the rabbit out of the hat yet! especially with idoits like Adkins making stupioood comments… Still think Hildabeast jumps in to “save” the party, ether as VP or to fill BH0′s LBJ exit, BH0 does the LBJ and lays it all at the feet of “Crazy Joe” and his incompetent campaign staff… then moves to become the “President” for life at the UN (another job his “oneness” must step down to fill…).
“The argument over the size and role of the federal governemnt is over and the limited government side lost.”
Baloney.
Yesterday in Manchester Romney and Ryan spent most of the time talking about the importance of the private sector and telling us that the best thing government can do is get out of the way. They pointed out that only the private sector can create wealth, and that small business is the key. They explained that it’s not possible to solve our economic crisis by increasing taxes, but that we need to cut spending–with fewer government programs AND fewer government employees.
The teaparty movement is all about limited government, along with fiscal responsibility, support for free enterprise and individual liberty, and the rule of law (including adherence to the Constitution). The media would like to think the teaparty is fading, but that is not true; as Palin’s dad said about her, we didn’t retreat, we’re reloading.
I would say that the argument over the role of the federal government is just getting started. Half the country has declined to participate. They’ll come around eventually.
At yesterday’s rally, Ryan gave us this Churchill quote: “the Americans will always do the right thing… after they have exhausted all the alternatives.”
I would say that about covers it.
Having Ryan in the race changes everything, it seems to me. If there is one thing that has had people paralyzed, it’s the sense that there is nothing we can do in the face of a candidate who is willing to lie and cheat brazenly. President Obama openly breaks the law and a lot of people seem to want to avert their eyes. It’s easier to believe there must be a magic invisible suit on that emperor, else why would he preen so? Or that all politicians are the same, Romney is just another flavor of liar, McCain wouldn’t have been any different (I about fell off my chair when I read that here), etc.
Now here comes a politician who actually tells the truth, and isn’t afraid to stand up and say that Obama has nothing on.
Definitely the beginning of a preference cascade.
And another thing, KRB…….
If your theory about limited government losing were true, the congressional election results of 2010 would never have happened.
That event alone means your theory is proven wrong.
Speaking of Obama and a Mid East War: http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/08/21/obama-threatens-war-with-syria/
Way too little, way too late Buraq. That situation is out of control where “our” side has become the Jihadi side. But I guess that was the intention all along.
No Mor uro #40:
Yes, but Newsweek is trying to sell magazines. And what does it say if they figured out that the best way to do that was to say Obama has to go?
In our recent primary election here in Florida, candidates who used the Obama approach – attacking the challenger on the basis of his being a government job double dipper or having previously held the same job or some such – in other words, personal attacks – while being careful to avoid mentioning their own record – lost by a landside. Of course, I found it transparently obvious that was what they were doing, but I think that the Obama approach has sensitized everyone as well.
Spending more than you are bringing in….limiting the attendance at your events…claiming that you never said things that you said…..all signs that you are on top of your game.
“Limited government” is not a policy position. It is an end-state. In order to achieve that end-state, one must embrace a set of policy positions, either up (yea) or down (nay) – no fence straddling allowed. It “appears” that the activist wing of the Republican Party – the Tea Partiers – is loathe to embrace policy as a tool, not unlike the (non-) argument that “anything is possible” (as per subject raised by poster in earlier thread in different context.)
You have to stand for something, maybe one should say, on something, which requires a h^ll of a lot more than just saying “less.”
What’s coming in the 2012 Republican platform?
Consider who’s in charge: Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, Rep. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, respectively chairman and co-chairman of the panel, and North Dakota Senator John Hoeven, who is also co-chairman. Yes, that Bob McDonnell.
- Constitutional ban on abortion without exclusion. So much for “limited government.”
- Freedom of expression in campaigns, essentially support for the corporate spending unleashed by Citizens United case. So much for the attack on “crony corruption.”
- Eliminate Dept of Ed? Unlikely.
So? About the only winning strategy is to run against Obama. Enter Niall Ferguson, Stage Left, or Right, I guess.
There are three visible candidates for an October surprise:
1) the coming December/January fiscal cliff looms large in people’s minds and becomes the October fiscal cliff;
2) the air finally goes out of the Greece balloon and they leave the EU;
3) Israel attacks Iran
Assuming there are other presently invisible candidates skulking about, would we even be surprised by an October surprise?
Preference cascades should only be expected when they arrive. I haven’t seen one arrive yet, so I won’t expect it until it does.
12. wretchard
“I think the Romney cash advantage should be seen as a kind of proxy poll.”
Precisely. Many on the right, particularly those in business, have learned a few valuable lessons in the past four years. Vote with your feet, your wallet and your support. Avoid rabid liberals, don’t respond to pollsters, and whenever possible, keep your mouth shut.
If Romney-Ryan can navigate the next 11+/- weeks with focus, grace and integrity, I’m beginning to believe we may see a blowout election in November. One which the MSM will immediately label as “unexpected,” of course.
GDI @ 52: “I’m beginning to believe we may see a blowout election in November.”
Let’s Hope for Change. But let’s not get sucked into the incessant Lame Stream Media horse race. Elections are important only because they may influence what happens after the election.
Whoever wins the US Presidential election will still have most of yesterday’s men around in the Senate (by Constitutional design) and in the House (because of the power of incumbency) and in the federal bureaucracy (power of incumbency protected by law). Those leopards are not willingly going to change their spots. And the bill for decades of their past political profligacy will still be coming due — resulting in much less money in government’s coffers.
I’d love to see the Political Class roll back excessive regulations & fire bureaucrats to jump start the productive economy. But those regulations are each backed by someone’s special interest, and those special interests will fight against any rollback. I’d love to see the Federal Government sell off assets (eg western land) to pay down the national debt. But the usual suspects will fight that all the way to the Supreme Court, and beyond.
The election is the beginning, not the end. That is true whoever wins.
Tom in Tampa, The fear in nominating Romney has always been that he would retreat to socialist lite positions whenever possible. With the addition of Ryan, it is hoped that Romney has finally understood that approach will doom his presidency. That said there are many RINO Socialists among his advisors.
Ah the charge of the Old (actually the Middle) Guard, Brigadier Gerard, and Waterloo.
Normally I’m an anglophile, but Napoleon is an exception…too bad the Guard didn’t prevail. . .
Max @ 55 – What was the end result? Squandered lives of many soldiers, French as well as others, and what was acquired in trade? How much land was added to the domain? How much treasure?
Where is Marie Claude when you need her?
This morning there was a political hit piece on NPR attempting to link Sheldon Adelson to Romney. It felt like some Obama operatives were testing whether or not this linkage could become a new narrative for the election. Truth to tell, I had never previously heard of Sheldon Adelson. A quick look at his Wikipedia article indicates that he’s some sort of quasi-legal international gangster making money through Chinese gambling, political influence peddling and prostitution (it’s legal in Macau). Adelson reminds me of Meyer Lansky. Anyone know anything about Adelson? I wonder if this attempt by Obama’s people to smear Romney through Adelson will have any traction?
56 – What was the end result? Squandered lives of many soldiers, French as well as others, and what was acquired in trade?
La Gloirrrrrrrre!
(Sorry, Marie Claude!)
the good doctor @ 58 – got a little french in the family tree?
Eggplant – What was the timestamp on that Wikipedia article? The only current mention of prostitution is how Adelson forced the Dems to apologize for their false accusations of his involvement in it.
I don’t know you and make no judgment on your character but your post @57 is consistent with the behavior of a concern troll. You might not want to cause such easy confusion.
Comanche Voter, as James Bond informed Brad Whitaker in “The Living Daylights”, Pickett’s Charge was against Cemetery Ridge, not Little Round Top.
epignosis @59 – No, no, it all comes from years of study. Plus I’m Canadian, so I hear a lot of French all the time. But my vocabulary has really expanded since I started translating old French movies and creating English fansubs for them. I even recently did a 1941 film called ‘Madame Sans-Gene’ with the actress Arletty in the title role and Albert Dieudonne as Napoleon. Great fun, and of course it led directly to the answer to your earlier question!
I wouldn’t get too excited about Obama’s failure to raise money. I expect his compadres with the Mexican cartels to step up real soon. Note that months ago, the Obama campaign once again turned off the address verification on campaign donations via credit cards.
As to October surprises, given how well the last one worked (the September 2008 economic collapse), it wouldn’t surprise me a lot to see another one. Indeed, I would expect the perps that did the deed on the first one to be pulling the strings on the next one, pulling Europe down around their ears first to be followed quickly by the bond market and the US stock market.
Only this time around, our side can play the game too. There are some rumored hot stuff in the Do(In)J F&F materials that Holder has refused to release and someone on Capitol Hill has seen some of it.
Sure would be interesting to see Obama’s Columbia transcript to make sure he did not slide into the college as a foreign exchange student. Would explain why they have spend so much energy burying it. Cheers -
Dr. Mabuse – It was devasting to the locals to have the Napolean’s army pass by. They plundered anything that was edible. Such was the glory that settled on the countryside.
In addition, of course, was deprivation of farm labor to satiate the beast of battle. Generations without husbands and fathers. If that be glory, who would seek it?
I do not understand how les francais could view him other than a total disaster for the nation, but, maybe if I were French?
Seems like the glory is stuck between the pages of the scribes of history as they reminisce about times gone by.
Where can we, down south, find your work?
TMLutas @ 60,
This is the first time I’ve seen you make a post at Belmont Club (I’ve been here for years). Also, I been posting stuff on the Internet since the time it was called the “Arpanet” but never previously heard the expression “concern troll”. I thought I knew all the jargon but a quick Google search revealed:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=concern+troll
So I learned something knew today! Maybe the term “concern troll” is used at sites like Daily Kos? Normally we at Belmont Club call people who use that tactic a “moby”, refer to:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=moby
Mobys sometimes visit Belmont Club. They will become more common prior to the election but disappear almost without a trace after the election. During the 2008 election, Belmont Club was a popular target for Obama campaign workers spreading disinformation. In 2008, Obama’s operatives were fairly unskilled at Belmont Club and the source for some fun. I suspect on this next go around, Obama’s people will either give Belmont Club a miss or send in their better operatives.
Adelson’s connection to Macau prostitution was alluded to during the NPR hit piece that I originally referenced. That hit piece was a nice example of Obama/Alinsky agitprop. Obama’s operatives are going to be throwing what ever the can at Romney through Leftist MSM outlets like NPR to see what sticks.
One last data point: Limbaugh had Doug Urbanski hosting for him last Friday and yesterday. Urbanski is well connected in Hollywood and NYC. He also claims to be something of a political junkie.
He had a comment Friday afternoon that for the first time in decades he is seeing political ads for the presidential race in both CA and NY. The Obamaoids don’t waste that sort of money shoring up their base unless it is absolutely necessary. Cheers -
No. 56.
Your answer presupposes that Napoleon was solely responsible for the wars. He did not begin most of them, (even the two big exceptions, Spain and Russia, he could argue provacation) but he certainly took advantage of them. The self-interested foreign policy of the French Empire was no different than that practiced by other European continental great powers since the Treaty of Westphalia.
Sure, France grabbed Belgium, the Rhineland and swaths of Italy (pre-Napoleon, BTW) just as Prussia had Silesia; and Austria, Prussia and Russia had gobbled up Poland, etc. Even in pre-revolutionary days, Austria (and sometimes France and Spain) had been setting up puppet states in Italy for centuries and trading them like stamps.
Napoleon’s army was not a unique diaster passing — virtually any army of the time was bad news for the locals, although the British Army, much smaller, and from a state with more money, was less so. I will allow that the way the French worked their commissariat meant a French Army was more trouble than an Austrian or Prussian (unless in France) but the Russians were worse still.
I’d argue the prize foreign policy mistake of Napoleon’s reign was not an aggressive war, per-se, so much as it was the recreation of Poland in the form of the Duchy of Warsaw in 1807. That ensured his alliance with Russia (never a good idea) would always be stillborn, and virtually ensured that there’d be another with Russia, as happened.
agimarc @ 66 said:
“… for the first time in decades he is seeing political ads for the presidential race in both CA and NY. The Obamaoids don’t waste that sort of money shoring up their base unless it is absolutely necessary.”
This maybe simple stupidity. It would be a typical Obama thing to waste money preaching to the converted. Also, California is a major income source for the Obama campaign. Throwing some advertising money at California might pay back a greater amount in campaign contributions.
I live in the San Francisco Bay Area and have witnessed both Obama Presidential campaigns. In the 2008 election, most of the cars here had Obama bumper stickers on them. However this time around, Obama bumper stickers are relatively rare. My impression from the liberals that I talk to is one of disappointment with Obama because he was not more left than he is. Again, Obama’s popularity scales with public perception about the economy. Public perception of the economy is mainly driven by the stock market. The stock market will remain up if Bernanke continues to pump it through freshly printed money and high frequency trading (HFT). A huge amount of Fiat money through HFT has been thrown at Google and Apple (both large employers in the Bay Area). Google and Apple have so much hot money that they’ve been spending much of it buying up cheap commercial real estate and rebuilding. I have no clue what they are going to do with all the freshly rebuilt empty office buildings. However the bottom line is that Obama has Northern California politically in the bag. That is probably also true for Manhattan. As of today, Obama is killing Romney through the electoral college.
Max @ 67 – didn’t he also make a foray into northern Africa?
The question still stands. After all his activities, what was France’s gain?
Epign. 69
Yeah, as General Bonaparte, he made a foray into Egypt (the Directory wanted him out of town and he bought the idea, because he thought he could get at England that way). But the Turks wouldn’t join the scheme and the English wrecked his fleet, it was a half-baked idea anyway.
France lost, so no gain. You’re right about that. But that’s hindsight. What we can argue about is the extent to which this, or the wars more generally, were his fault.
In hindsight, invading Russia was a dumb idea, but it did not look so at the time. There was going to be a war with Russia anyway (the Tsar had soured on the “alliance” no later than end of 1810, he was mobilizing troops in Russian Poland, was negotiating with Prussia, and was going to present Napoleon with an ultimatum over the Duchy of Warsaw). It was a question of waiting for them or moving first, and maybe touching off a rebellion in Russian Poland by doing so (his early proclamations in the Russian campaign refer to it as the “Second Polish War.”)
Looking back, he’d have done better to wait, because it enabled him to sit on the Prussians with Polish help.
Goes back to my argument that his big mistake was recreating Poland. I think he had to have an alliance with one continental great power to survive. He never comprehended the importance of Poland to the three big eastern monarchies.
The deal he had with Russia was no good if he was going to back the Poles. Listening to the Polish exiles in France and the cabal around the Poniatowskis wound up costing him, and France, everything. The Russian alliance probably would have never worked anyway, the Russians were too interested in British trade, but he had some chance absent the recreation of Poland.
He really needed a deal with Austria — he tried for that with the Austrian marriage, but he didn’t offer them much. The sweateners could have been no new Poland and Prussian Silesia. The Austrians could have been bought had they been thinking straight — anything that tamped down on German nationlism and Prussia was in the interest of the multinational Habsburg state.
In any case, Napoleon was not the first statesman, in a time of great relative national power, to succumb to the illusion that anything was possible (look at some of the post-Cold War position papers that floated around Washington in the early 90′s). My point is (1) the wars weren’t all his fault; and, (2) the historical outcome that we got wasn’t necessarily an improvement on what might have transpired had the French imperium in Europe lasted.
Re October Surprise – I’ve long been worried about what October surprise the Dems were counting on. I have never seen any politician, much less the entire Democratic party, less concerned about reelection. From January 20, 2009 the Dems have acted as though public opinon no longer mattered – why? Politicans’ sensitivity to public opinion is akin to having shingles. It is as though they have been told/guaranteed an October surprise – many of which are listed above. One they could not have anticicpated is the drought affecting crops like corn and soybeans – that will have a huge impact on food and product prices, coupled with a crash of the EU and its cascading effects – throw in an Israel/Iran confrontation and we are in a world of hurt.
30. juan tanamera
Not a chance. Are you Pelosi’s love child? Pelosi mouths this same sort of nonsense. She has never been correct in all her life. Even when she was hunting the Wooly Mammoth, it was someone else that figured using fire to drive them over the cliff worked best. It might have been McCain.
The GOP will lose a handful of house seats and capture the Senate.
The 0bumbler has blown off off a big chunk of the black vote with his gay position (hard on the knees) and his attack on the Catholic Church will cut into the Hispanic vote. Neither Black nor Mexican will vote for Mitt, but they will stay home in droves. A lot of the youth vote will not be at the polls either. Yoots see him as just another lying politician.
That will make it close. Juan, since you know the outcome, why not stay home and watch on TV? I’ll bet you hit the off button about 8PM EST. I suspect it will be called before 10PM EST. Should we start a pool? Beer money to drown your sorrows.
What the right will do is clean house. Between 2012 and 2014 we will get rid of a lot more tired old white guys. It is no accident that all the fresh young talent is playing for the GOP. Meanwhile, the Demonrats are controlled by ageing hippies. As they die off, there are no replacements. The future is so bright, I got to wear shades.
Haji can’t shoot.
“From January 20, 2009 the Dems have acted as though public opinon no longer mattered – why?”
They are Socialists and remember it was the ultimate Socialist who said “It’s not the votes that matter but who counts the votes.” Democrats think they will be counting the votes.
They need to go back and look and see who won all those state houses in 2010.
Charlie don’t surf.
agimarc @ 63 said:
“As to October surprises, given how well the last one worked (the September 2008 economic collapse), it wouldn’t surprise me a lot to see another one. Indeed, I would expect the perps that did the deed on the first one to be pulling the strings on the next one, pulling Europe down around their ears first to be followed quickly by the bond market and the US stock market.”
I agree that killing the economy in September 2008 insured Obama’s election but how would killing the economy in September 2010 help Obama? My guess is the economy will get hammered next month but it will be hammered by people who want Obama out of office. If they succeed then Obama is almost guaranteed to be voted out (the economy is everything in politics). Unfortunately Bernanke will print trillions of dollars of monopoly money to keep his patron in power.
It just occurred to me that we could have a situation where Obama does get voted out, Bernanke gets the boot from Romney and then we go into hyperinflation due to all the paper money that Bernanke created to keep Obama in office.
In an earlier post, I mentioned that I live in the San Francisco Bay Area. I just took a walk to the post office and looked for Obama bumper stickers. I could not find a single one for Obama but did find one Romney bumper sticker (statistical noise?). Key point: Most of those cars would have had 2008 Obama stickers on them (the Bay Area is insanely liberal). What this tells me is many people went to the trouble of scraping off the old Obama bumper stickers.
Is Romney going to win in California? No Way! This is the state that repeatedly voted in Barbara Boxer as senator. Any state with a brain dead socialist like Boxer as US Senator must by definition be an Obama state. California will vote for Obama but it’s clear that the people of California are not happy with him.
64 epignosis – I think the French do have a different point of view. Napoleon wasn’t the only historical figure who, to our eyes, did more harm than good, yet the French resolutely think otherwise. Louis XIV was at war with Europe for decades, left the finances in a disastrous state, ended up killing huge numbers of French and European soldiers, yet he is “Le Roi Soleil”. Despite everything, he made France great and feared and respected – the biggest game in town. It means something to the French – we just have to accept that their view of things is not just the same as ours. But I expect we could find other cultures that have that same attachment to honour and glory. Maybe that’s why Napoleon backed the Poles – they are romantics and idealists.
As for my subtitles, well, I don’t sell them myself, as I can’t be bothered worrying about the legalities. I do them for a cineaste group, and I’m compensated for my work by being allowed to acquire…more movies! But I did come across an outfit called moviedetective which obviously has a source within my group, and they sell copies of these rare movies. A good number of “my” titles are there, but I recognize the work of others as well. The ones I think I enjoyed the most were “Marguerite de la nuit” and “Juliette, ou la cle des songes”. Since I don’t do it for a living or to make money, I can choose the movies I think are the most interesting and enjoyable. I found a quote by Dr. Johnson, writing about Alexander Pope: “But what was yet of more importance, his effusions were always voluntary, and his subjects chosen by himself. His independence secured him from drudging at a task, and labouring upon a barren topic: he never exchanged praise for money, nor opened a shop of condolence or congratulation.”
OT a bit, but nice to see some of the reglatory overreach getting rolled back. It takes time.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-21/u-s-appeals-court-overturns-cross-state-air-pollution-rule.html
Walt @28
Sweet.
There is not much in the way of integrity left of the house team 0bama built.
————
The End of [an] History
That Pharaohs so great, worked their magical slates to build upon shifting dead sands,
Immortal time serves up the lash and the grime of a million invisible hands.
Bold god-kings have shewn how their soaring old tombs might resist ‘spite millenia and Moor,
Their smooth pyramid stones are stripped clean an’ fed whole, for the homes of new holy lords – ‘midst the hovels of Cairo’s old whores.
Though the glare of a Sphinx watches o’er and winks, at the works of those turned to dust,
A cannon shot blew out its snot by a crew, of some artilleryman emperor’s lusts.
Those dank ancient tombs, in whose shadows and gloom, had shaded both great and the small,
Face a brotherhood of hate who with rancor debate, the Pharaoh’s most pious and final of falls.
From Bamiyan’s ghosts and Timbuktu toasts, to the shores whence Dutch spicers plied sail,
From even the city renamed once anew on the Byzantine bones of an empire that failed.
As Sauron awakes, his new Mordor remakes, steel Nazgul and legions of trolls,
Fresh worm-tongues rise forth, and spew their discourse, to wargs who relish their roles.
So what will arise from the rubble heaped high should the hot-headed wolves win the day?
No one can tell but for the ‘orrible smell, as the stories of old Egypt blow forever away.
…And everywhere else the moon god is hailed, for a lack of men who’ll stand tall,
Our women will weep as the darkness doth creep, ‘cross a world transfixed in its thrall.
There may yet be a thing, o’er Kipling gods crack a grin, with wide “I told ya so” smiles,
…That “souls who submit to what moon gods permit, are surely forever reviled”.
At the junction of de-Nile and the sharks of the sea – where injustice meets up with man’s sin in his glee,
An Englishman sits still on his cloud with his quips – intent upon drowning in gin that is free.
;^)
74 Eggplant said:
“I agree that killing the economy in September 2008 insured Obama’s election but how would killing the economy in September 2010 help Obama? My guess is the economy will get hammered next month but it will be hammered by people who want Obama out of office. If they succeed then Obama is almost guaranteed to be voted out (the economy is everything in politics). Unfortunately Bernanke will print trillions of dollars of monopoly money to keep his patron in power.
It just occurred to me that we could have a situation where Obama does get voted out, Bernanke gets the boot from Romney and then we go into hyperinflation due to all the paper money that Bernanke created to keep Obama in office.”
To your first question, I would guess that tanking the world economy this fall would be played up to instill the same sort of panic that we saw 4 years ago. When the media, the dems, and the squish pubs are all pushing the panic button while Obama gloats and opines about danger of changing horses in the middle of the stream. And their goal is to bring the whole thing down so they can replace it with what they want to replace it with during the ensuing chaos. I don’t think they will get the outcome they want. But I do find it useful to believe they mean what they say when they threaten.
As to your second, I have also been wondering about the lack of hyperinflation during the current festivities. Most of the inflation I have seen is all self-induced via idiotic energy policies (energy and food (ethanol)). One of the Singularity guys wrote an article a couple years ago suggesting that we are in a deflationary cycle and that the fed printing money like crazy is simply keeping prices about the same. He points to the historically large percentage of the economy that high tech companies here in the US comprise. The computer world has been in a deflationary spiral for at least 30 years (Moore’s Law), probably longer. Interesting argument URL follows. Cheers –
http://www.singularity2050.com/2010/07/the-technosponge.html
Stoichieon #73:
Unfortunately that is true. When Katherine Harris certified the Florida 2000 election results despite the Dem insistance that only certain counties be recounted, they decided that the answer was to make sure they secure all of the State Secretaries of State and thereby control the recount process. The Chairman of the DNC, Howard Dean, came right out and said that.
So after creating a myth that the 2000 Florida election was stolen they then proceeded to do it themsleves. And I believe that approach was indeed a factor in the Al Franken and Wash State Governor elections.
79. RWE:
Projection. The left can’t help themselves.
—–
So, is Akin a Black Swan in this campaign? I would argue yes.
65. Eggplant:
The term “concern troll” is frequently used at Ace of Spades.
As I understand it, a moby is an agent provocateur. They will try to stir things up. They might say something intemperate or inflammatory in hopes of getting other commenters to agree with them. Then they can point to the site and say, “See? Those people are racists and/or antigovernment types. Look at the kinds of things they say.”
On the other hand, a concern troll tries to quietly undermine morale. They will say things like, “Gee, Candidate X sounds kind of extreme. He should tone down his rhetoric so he doesn’t alienate moderates and independents.”
Rickl @ 81:
Thank you.
28 walt
Adonis and his styrofoam is a nice ode to a lightweight. Post poem – around here we take used styrofoam to the dump.
It doesn’t matter what Obama or other Democrats say, do or spend. The election is going to be a vote against the current administration. That’s all it is, a vote against Obama and the “Chicago way.” The margin will be too big to steal.
Andrew Krause @ 84 said:
“The election is going to be a vote against the current administration.”
Allow me to build a castle in the sky (confirmation bias alert!): IF Obama is voted out of office and IF the Republicans gain a majority in the Senate and IF the Republicans can maintain their majority in the House of Representatives THEN Obama’s entire socialist agenda would be swept away with the single stroke of a pen. The entire moonbat fraud that the MSM foisted upon the American people by maneuvering Obama into office would end up as a soon-to-be-forgotten footnote is history (4 critical years wasted during a time of national crisis).
Add to this that Romney is a very weak candidate and what we have is a total rejection by the American people of the socialist political agenda. Also, by inference this would be a stinging slap across the face of the MSM who created this situation in 2008.
That last bit is cautionary: The MSM knows that their future influence is on the line. If what I described were to happen then the MSM becomes a neutered laughing stock and ceases to be a significant player.
Eggplant, the media will pivot on a dime after the election should the Republicans run the table. Watch for all the “bad” Obama stories to finally come out. They are jackals and feast on the ‘kills’ of others.
Eggplant, the media will pivot on a dime after the election should the Republicans run the table. Watch for all the “bad” Obama stories to finally come out.
Oh my yes. Suddenly the media will be nothing but sob-stories from out of work people complaining that Romney and Republicans have done nothing to help them and are threatening to cut their assistance. These are the same people the media is studiously ignoring today. Has anyone seen a single out-of-work person on television?
I recall when Clinton was first running — the “it’s the economy stupid” campaign — that virtually every news program led off with an out-of-work blues story for months on end leading up to the election. The stories stopped the moment he was elected. The Narrative, The Narrative, The Narrative.
@81 & 82:
Oh for heaven’s sake. Try to stand back and hear how you sound. So now all dissenting opinion is “dumbed down” by marginalizing whatever semblance of tone and content not fully synchronous with the accepted narrative to fit a profile becoming agent provocateur.
How very Maxwell Smart clever. Dissent not allowed because the dissenter has “concerns.” S/he might even be trying to stimulate debate. Oh the humanity. This kind of thing is fully juvenile (at the level of anonymous blogging. Intolerance for debate/dissent at decision-making levels, such as recent debt-ceiling debates which mocked traditional conflict resolution techniques, is far more serious, one might even say “concerning.”) I almost feel as if I’m stuck in a perverse sequel to Bill Murray’s Groundhog Day.
Recall the homeless narrative when RR was POTUS. The leading advocate, Mitch Snyder, had a little office called the Center for Creatve NonViolence which was, I suppose, an implied threat.
He was a leading testifyer about the plight of the homeless. He later comitted suicide.
He said that a reporter called his office inquiring how many homeless there were. He and his partner were flummoxed. The question had not occurred to them. So he pulled a number out of his ear. 2,000,000. Of course, if bad is good, worse is better, so the accepted figure became 3,000,000 for public discussion.
Efforts to actually count the homeless were sabotaged and those whose expertise was in the field–talking of a tenth the popular number–were ignored.
You will, of course, remember that the homeless were all housed by the first week of the Clinton administration. No longer on the evening news.
I happened to be working with a lefty faith-based group who either were actually as ignorant as they seemed to be, and adamantly proof against facts, or were lying like rugs as proposed in lefty seminaries. But they were, as they were when lying about discrimination in home loans, prepping the battle space for government action.
It’s impossible to differentiate anymore whether someone is doing an inspired parody of idiocy or just being an actual persistent idiot.
Your performance defies dissection, sadly. Vivisection might be possible though.
Concerns have their merit. Posturing is the encrustation (sorry) of barnacles slowing the boat down as it struggles to make safe harbor before the storm.
In any case, your use of the infernal case “S/he” tends to overwhelm any residual sympathy that might otherwise have welled up in a civilized heart.
@ 81. “The term “concern troll” is frequently used at Ace of Spades.” Ah yes. Ace better close his comments thread if Romney finds a way to lose this thing, as I still remember his equating Lew Rockwell’s ramblings with those of Ron Paul and all the other assorted pro-Establishment hysterics back in Iowa when Santorum was pulled out a hat at the last second to beat back the hated Ronulans. You can justify having off duty Lousiana cops beat Ronulans for the greater good and all that but everyone hates a loser who resorts to dirty tricks.
And if you want to know which candidate the Obamanoids were cheering for, read the Ulsterman Report. White House Insider says it was Santorum all along, not Paul. I know that will cause some cognitive dissonance here, but so be it. I don’t know much about TM Lutas other than that he blogs at Chicago Boyz, lives in Indiana and doesn’t drink the P—y Riot koolaid Soros is selling to duped conservatives who’ve always been at war with Eurasia.
“IF Obama is voted out of office and IF the Republicans gain a majority in the Senate and IF the Republicans can maintain their majority in the House of Representatives THEN Obama’s entire socialist agenda would be swept away with the single stroke of a pen.” This strikes me as thinking similar to ‘if only we elected Ron Paul’ all would be well. Which I do not subscribe to. Electing Romney and retaking the Senate will simply expose how horrible the mess really is for which Republicans will immediately be blamed, when this Administration was operating on Bernanke’s printing press, looted customer accounts for favored cronies like Corzine, and duct tape the whole time.
50 percent of the country ALREADY blame the troubles of this country ON ANYONE WHO’s NOT A SOCIALIST.
Who gives a damn what they think? They sure don’t care what happens to anyone who thinks different from them; they’d be just as happy to see everyone who disagrees with them packed into concentration camps.
Bill Ayers said in an interview YEARS ago he figured it would be necessary to put tens of MILLIONS of US citizens in concentration camps to impose his idea of government on this country.
I wonder how many he figures he can justify murdering… especially if we don’t care to go meekly to our barbed wire playpens.
“If Obama goes down, is the French Revolution finally over”
Alas, no. I am afraid that they will keep coming forever.
There is no rest for the weary.
Not — Uncle Joe
You may well be right.
I am as deeply troubled by the potential repeal of Obamacare as not.
Are we at a point where one party will nullify the laws of the previous? What happens when/if the Democrats get back into power, as they surely will.
It seems we may very well be damned if we do and damned if we don’t.
Devil’s advocate time:
I am not at all convinced that 3-4 years of inflation well into double digits (as in Britain in the 1970s) would be a bad thing. The point is that at the moment more people owe money than have savings – and shares tend to index-link themselves. So do wages, if you’re working, at least partially, and so do various forms of government assistance. But at this sort of level of inflation, debts (particularly to banks) are not index-linked.
One possible way of sorting out this mess and punishing the authors of it at the same time might be to carry out some very serious amount of “quantitative easing” but do it by very literally printing money – and giving it out to individuals, most definitely not banks. Of course, pretty well of it would end up in the banks anyway; but en route, it would be wiping out debts that are what is really crippling Western economies right now.
All of this would probably lead to several banks going bust. Feature, not bug.
@91: I still remember his equating Lew Rockwell’s ramblings with those of Ron Paul and all the other assorted pro-Establishment hysterics back in Iowa when Santorum…
Ron Paul is a lying little p—y (his early social views leaving little to the imagination and highly suggestive of a boiled in blood looney tune) but he possesses a very good understanding of The Fed and central banking. I don’t think he can make it happen but his greatest legacy would be to open The Fed accounting to a public audit.
Santorum is no Ron Paul.
I read that Corzine had been dropped from the A-list soirees. I’ve also read that most of the loot was located, with an estimated 80% payback (Bloomberg.) None of which makes any of it more palatable. In the case of Corzine, I am inclined to think, based on his personal portrait, that he is a rogue outlier rather than an intimate player in the rouge transnational set.
As for the “who gets the blame” game, a reminder for the concerned and unconcerned alike, the 2008 rumor was that the Repubs ran McCain to force blame on the the Dems for what everyone knew would be a nasty and difficult recovery. More and more of the modern political discourse reminds me of the line Mia (Uma Thurman) says to Vincent (John Travolta): “when you little scamps get together you’re worse than a sewing circle.”
Oh and QED on the dissent. This forum is hostile to it. As the Republicans will be reminding us in their soon to be released platform, free speech is like those free drinks in Las Vegas – ain’t nothing free about either one.
“Nuts!”