‘Obama Gets Left Behind:’ The Preference Cascade Begins to Build
A decade ago, Glenn Reynolds described a “preference cascade” as one of the reasons why “totalitarian regimes collapse so suddenly:”
Such regimes have little legitimacy, but they spend a lot of effort making sure that citizens don’t realize the extent to which their fellow-citizens dislike the regime. If the secret police and the censors are doing their job, 99% of the populace can hate the regime and be ready to revolt against it – but no revolt will occur because no one realizes that everyone else feels the same way.
This works until something breaks the spell, and the discontented realize that their feelings are widely shared, at which point the collapse of the regime may seem very sudden to outside observers – or even to the citizens themselves. Claims after the fact that many people who seemed like loyal apparatchiks really loathed the regime are often self-serving, of course. But they’re also often true: Even if one loathes the regime, few people have the force of will to stage one-man revolutions, and when preferences are sufficiently falsified, each dissident may feel that he or she is the only one, or at least part of a minority too small to make any difference.
On Friday, May 25th, after the conclusion of a bruising week for the Obama regime, John Hayward of Human Events used Glenn’s “preference cascade” terminology to describe what was happening to the president: “That’s what began happening over the past couple of weeks: a large number of people discovered it’s okay to strongly disapprove of Barack Obama:”
His popularity has always been buttressed by the conviction – very aggressively pushed by his supporters – that disapproval of his personal or official conduct is immoral. You’re presumptively “racist” if you disagree with him, or at least a greedy tool of the Evil Rich, or a “Tea Party extremist.”
A negative mirror image of this narrative was installed around Mitt Romney, who is supposedly a fat-cat extremist (and, thanks to the insidious War On Mormons, a religious nut) who nobody likes… even though large numbers of people in many different states voted for him in the primaries. Of course he has his critics, and I’m not seeking to dismiss the intensity or sincerity of that criticism… but the idea was to make Romney supporters feel isolated going into the general election, particularly the people who don’t really get involved in primary elections.
Both of those convergent narratives began crumbling this week: Obama is deeply vulnerable, and his campaign has no real answer to criticism of his record – they’ve even tried floating an outright fraud, the now-infamous Rex Nutting charts that presented Obama as some kind of fiscal hawk. (Stop laughing – major media figures took this garbage seriously for a couple of days, and Team Obama did push it.) Major Democrats, beginning with Newark mayor Cory Booker, expressed criticism of the Obama campaign… and the Left reacted with shrieking hysteria and vows of personal destruction for the “traitors.”
Meanwhile, Mitt Romney effectively presented both substantive criticism of Obama, and a positive agenda. Attacks on his business record that were supposed to destroy him through class-warfare tactics failed to draw blood. The idea that he can win became widely accepted. That doesn’t mean he won the 2012 argument… but unlike Barack Obama, he is offering one.
It happened fast, as preference cascades always do.
Update: I should add that the most powerful cascades occur when an artificially imposed sense of isolation crumbles. That’s very definitely what is happening here. Widespread popular discontent with the Obama presidency has been suppressed by making the unhappy campers feel marginalized. The failure of that strategy is akin to watching a dam burst under high pressure.
After yet another terrible, no good, very bad week for Obama, the pressure is strong enough to even impact former Obama cheerleaders in the legacy media. “The Media Starts to Lay Down Markers on a Romney Victory,” Mark Hemingway writes today in the Weekly Standard:
It’s best not to extrapolate too much from a few examples, but it’s fair to say that Washington insiders are reading the tea leaves and increasingly preparing for a Romney victory — especially following Friday’s bad economic news. The danger for Obama is that in political campaigns perception can quickly become reality. If influential liberals such as Dowd suddenly have no problem saying Obama appears to be in over his head, pretty soon everyone will be pointing out the obvious. Thus far, Obama’s meteoric rise has been largely dependent on a press that went straight from beat sweeteners to beatification. If the press turns on the president, the Obama campaign may not know what to do.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the aisle, Kenneth Rapoza, a self-described “hard hat Democrat from Massachusetts” writes in Forbes this weekend, “Obama Gets Left Behind:”
Come on now. Is Obama really a “psychopathic megalomaniac”?
I learned of Obama’s problems today. Not from Ron Paul supporters. Not from Glenn Beck‘s Drudge wanna-be news site The Blaze. I read about Obama’s psychosis from left wing Democrats.
Everyday I get emails from former members of Move On, a pro-Democratic Party group that was famously active during the build-up to the Iraq War in 2003. They’re complaining about one man: President Obama.
In these emails, one thing is apparent. When it comes to the left wing liberals, Obama is being left behind.
As Michael Ledeen, my fellow PJ columnist likes to say, “Faster, please.”
Update: Welcome those readers clicking in from Instapundit, JammieWearingFools, Lucianne.com and Slashdot.
The progs being unhappy with the cryptosocialist Obama is hilarious, illustrating their cluelessness.
Obama has always been an odd mix of core Marxist leanings and Chicago unprincipled opportunism.
Funny that they claim Obama’s slowness to embrace gay marriage, marijuana legalization, closing Gitmo etc prove he is a sellout to the right, when actually his basic lack of interest in those issues is perfectly consistent with the Marxist foundation — the Soviets, PRC etc never careed about *any* of those sorts of issues. Economics is their only focus, with the other issues only serving as ways to rally the useful idiots on the other side.
But, you are a racist sir, you oppose the will of The One…therefore, you are a racist bigot.
[/sarcasm]
Seriously though, as recently as two weeks ago, the people of Kentucky and Arkansas (and WV earlier), in the Democratic primaries were accused of being racists for voting against Mr. Obama. That’s how shallow the media is. Anyone who criticizes Obama is a racist. If you dare to vote against him, you’re a racist.
Just about the only good thing here is that by over playing the damn racist card, we can finally be done with it. Personally, I don’t give a damn what skin tone a politician has, as long as he doesn’t “just talk the talk” but actually follows his political beliefs with actions…which without real action is empty…and that’s what Obama is, an empty suit.
I suspect that he’ll go down with James Earl Carter as either the 2nd worst, or 3rd worst president in out history…the worst is James Buchanan, who’s policies led directly to the Civil War.
Rich is right about the empty suit. The clothes, sharply creased as they may be, have no emperor.
…the worst is James Buchanan, who’s policies led directly to the Civil War.
Yeah, but Obama still has five months, and what with all that racial unrest and class warfare he and his fellow travelers are trying to stir up, they could still manage their own new and improved civil war…
You ain’t lyin’. I assure you there will be riots in every major city when obama loses. The black rioters are easily stirred up in much the same way they were when the media ‘discovered’ the Trayvon fiasco a month after the fact and labeled Zimmerman a ‘white’ Hispanic.
And get ready for more roving bands of ‘youths’ targeting the lighter shades.
MUCH faster PLEASE
Obama will be considered the worst president to date, in our American History.
MUCH was expected of him….racism was supposed to disappear…it got worse.
He was supposed to make the world love us…they hate us more than they ever did.
JOBS….??….. never mind… economy…also a non starter.
Barack Hussein Obama was a mistake….a BIG one….and I don’t think the American people will ever do this again…
Hopefully we have learned a huge lesson here…..but then again we are rife with useful idiots.
And what do we do when he starts a war between now and election day just to get his polls up and plant that idea that that we musn’t change presidents in the middle of a war? I can’t help but think it is not “if” but “when.”
That it has been portrayed by the Left that “disapproval of his personal or official conduct is immoral” is a given with the Left. Further evidance that Conservatives think Liberals are wrong while Liberals think Conservatives are evil. I believe this cascade is very much like rebellions against totalitarian regimes as people are well aware of what the consequences are of anyone with power believing you are evil.
As my handle suggests, I live in Vermont, and a funny thing happened the other day. A guy came into the hardware store and he starts wishing Dean was still the governor and defending Obama and putting down Bush, and the other five guys in the store laughed at him. In Vermont.
“His popularity has always been buttressed by the conviction – very aggressively pushed by his supporters – that disapproval of his personal or official conduct is immoral. You’re presumptively “racist” if you disagree with him, or at least a greedy tool of the Evil Rich, or a “Tea Party extremist.””
I believe this is why he was elected in the first place – his was used, literally, by the Democrats because of the power of his skin color to ward off any criticism of the policies they would impose on the Country. They saw his skin color as a guarantee that he would serve for 8 years and that he could get most of the agenda passed because any criticism of him or it would be labelled as racist and very few people would have the courage to stand the guilt and slander trip they would get in return.
If racism is judging a person based on skin color then the Democrats are racist because that is the only reason for picking a junior senator who never held national office before 2006 and who never did a damn thing in his life worth talking about, except write two books about himself (one of the weirdest things ever for a nobody from nowhere to do).
Thanks goodness for Sarah Palin. She was the only person in America (practically) who had the courage to speak out from Day 1. She paid a heavy price but she was right.
Obama is a con man.
The first rule of cons: Don’t tip off the mark
The ‘mark’ has been tipped off.
When the lie collapses, Obama is toast.
This week’s economic news will turn the cascade into a waterfall.
But this is not the time for complacency, but a redoubling of effort. I remember lots of Democrat blogs in 2004 saying there was no WAY that Chimpy McHitler could get re-elected.
Similarly, we conservatives can’t sit back and say there’s no WAY that Chicago Machine Empty Suit could get re-elected.
Ed – There are five months to go, and a lot can happen in those five months. Don’t count your chickens just yet.
Mr. Democrat, sir? American Express on line 3.
They say that your Race Card™ is overdrawn.
I wonder if the Klan will make a comeback next year while neo-Nazis gain power in Europe. We’ve been told for four years that racists voted for John McCain, racists opposed the Stimulus, and racists want to repeal Obamacare and cut taxes. “Racist” doesn’t sound so bad now, does it?
Dave, I’m not a KKK historian by any means, but I seem to remember reading that one of the reasons why the KKK gained energy was because white northern carpet baggers were using the local ex-slaves as fronts for their various financial raids. There were also problems with random lawlesness on the part of some ex-slaves. The KKK was formed to intimidate the blacks because the carpet baggers were protected by the US Govt.
Compare that with what is going on now.
A MUST Read “The Amature” about Obama- 1 on NYT best sellers list in less than 3 or so weeks
If you voted for him because he is black…
You are a racist.
If you voted for him because he’s so smart…
You are a dunce.
If you voted for him at all…
It’s not too late to repent.
The day you let someone, anyone, define what you think or how you feel, you’re toast.
Under such circumstance, you don’t exist except as your usefulness as a tool.
Do your own homework and never be afraid to speak your mind, most especially when it contradicts the public mindset.
This election will coin a new term, the “Obama Effect” (see Bradley Effect). Whatever the polls show going into election day, Obama will do much worse at the polling booth. Tens of millions of voters are staying very quiet and waiting to vote this man out of office in November.
This supposed sociological explanation of a “tipping point” being hit and a resulting “Preference Cascade” event may be explained in simpler terms, the word is out on the left from the top down: obamas official protection has been rescinded. This explains the APPEARANCE of a “Preference Cascade”. It is a simply a mass-massage to the troops, perking down through the ranks. It’s cannibalism time on the left. The Jacobite lust is upon them.
You almost have to feel sorry for Obama. I say almost, because this debacle of a presidency is a result of his own fecklessness and overweening self-regard.
NEVER.
Thank you, Jon Lovitz.
Of course, the classic preference cascade is the tale of the Emperor and his new clothes. It took just one innocent child to start the cascade. The President’s initial progressive attempts have resulted in complete failure and it is now becoming clear that he he has nothing further to offer.
It’s far too early for columns like this. The “defections” may have elements of a cascade, but who’s to say for sure that Booker et al came to the Obama-as-loser conclusion as individuals or at someone’s behest? Like Hillary, for one.
This could be seen as groundwork for a brokered Democrat convention, especially if the House and Senate races start to look like a disaster for them. Ergo, we get leaks about a WH shoving match, prominent Dems defending Bain and MSM quick bailouts on Obama campaign materials.
This Obama-Romney campaign might be over before Labor Day.
Bush 1 made me miss Reagan. Clinton made me miss Bush 1. Bush 2 made me miss Clinton. And as bad as Buah 2 was, Obama is so much worse I have even started to miss Bush 2. It would be awfully nice to finally elect a president where when he leaves office I could finally say he was an improvement over his predecessor. I haven’t had that feeling since Reagans term ended. Not sure Obama is the worst president in all history, since we have had some really awful ones, but he is definitely worse than any in recent memory, and would easily rank among the top 5 worste.
Nobody with an ounce of common sense “missed” Scamba, the Lyin’ King.
Clinton’s moral failings were obvious early in the 1992 primary campaign season. Gennifer Flowers, bimbo eruptions, “I loathe the military”, and “But I didn’t inhale” were but a few of the indications that he was unfit for high office. But, as Ed Koch said after he like Bush was turned out of office by an inferior, the people have chosen and now they must be punished.
I wonder how Cory Booker feels now.
Remember, remember
the 4th of November.
The Treachery, Treason and Plot.
I know of no reason
why the Treachery and Treason
should ever be forgot.
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