As the time nears when Iran is scheduled to announce the “punch” which will leave the West “stunned” on the occasion of the 31st anniversary of the Khomeini’s Islamic Revolution, it is useful to review the broad situation in which it takes place. What are the circumstances under which this ‘stunning blow’ will be announced?
First, it will happen at a time when President Obama’s attempts to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon by engagement have failed. Adam Lowther in the New York Times says that about all the administration can do now is make lemon out of lemonades. “With Iran having notified the United Nations nuclear watchdog agency that it is now enriching its stockpile of uranium to a higher level, we should admit that Washington’s approach to countering the Islamic Republic is leading nowhere.” Lowther says that perhaps Washington can turn the resulting fear among the Sunnis to America’s advantage.
Thus Washington could offer regional security — primarily, a Middle East nuclear umbrella — in exchange for economic, political and social reforms in the autocratic Arab regimes responsible for breeding the discontent that led to the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. …
Second, becoming the primary provider of regional security in a nuclear Middle East would give the United States a way to break the OPEC cartel. …
Third, Israel has made clear that it feels threatened by Iran’s nuclear program. The Palestinians also have a reason for concern, because a nuclear strike against Israel would devastate them as well.
But he is simply looking to find ways to find a silver lining in a dark cloud, a valid exercise, but a damage control exercise withal. The bottom line is that America is on the brink of failing to contain a threat which will alter the whole calculus in the Middle East. A nuclear armed Iran will change many things in the region.
The second thing to consider is that Iran itself is in a period of internal instability unseen since Khomeini’s Islamic Revolution in 1979. Reza Aslan at the Daily Beast says that discontent is widespread. In fact, some of the largest protests to date have occurred after Mousavi and Karroubi asked supporters not to demonstrate. The protest movement has even disregarded calls from established opposition politicians to stop. This means that in addition to the uncertainty occasioned by the West’s failure to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions, there is additional variance caused by upheavals within Iran.
The most remarkable aspect of the current uprising in Iran is its lack of coordination from above. As many observers have noted, this is essentially a “leaderless revolution,” one organized by Twitter and Facebook rather than by any individual or group. In fact, some of the largest protests to date have occurred after Mousavi and Karroubi asked supporters not to demonstrate.
The third circumstance is what Israeli ambassador to the US Michael Oren described as the convergence of factors. It is not just Iran’s impending bomb, nor the unrest within it that is now coming to a head. A whole lot of factors may be converging. In an interview with Roger Simon at PJTV, Oren noted the eerie resemblance of the coming spring of 2010 to the powderkeg situation which preceded the Six Day War. He said that nobody then predicted the series of events which in a matter of hours precipitated a conflict whose results reverberate to this day. Interestingly, Oren asserted that European diplomats have now belatedly realized how grave the situation now is.
Whether Oren is right or not, his observation preceded news that Britain, Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands are boycotting Ahmadinejad’s celebration in Teheran, thus validating concerns about Iran’s internal instability and the gravity with which the Europeans now view Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Britain’s Ambassador in Tehran and four European counterparts are to boycott today’s celebrations of the 31st anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, which the opposition hopes to turn into another massive demonstration against the regime.
The Foreign and Commonwealth Office said that Simon Gass would not attend the official events in Azadi Square because of a “range of problems” between Britain and the Iran. The regime refused to accept the deputy head of mission instead, and threatened to prevent the ambassador from holding any future meetings with officials or ministers.
In summary, the curtain rises on a scene where 1) Barack Obama has failed to contain Iranian nuclear ambitions; 2) Iran is in a state of turmoil; 3) regional conditions are at a heightened state of tension which even the Europeans are now alive to. But crucially these events are taking place at a time when Washington has paralyzed itself through incompetence so great that even liberals are calling for the dismissal of Barack Obama’s Chicago crew. David Rothkop at Foreign Policy names who he thinks should get the hatchet. He mentions some of the national security team, Rahm Emmanuel and were it in the President’s power to fire him, Harry Reid. Even the Huffington Post can contain itself no longer. It quotes a Financial Times article describing a White House in which cabinet secretaries are treated like “minions” by political operatives.
Administration insiders say the famously irascible Mr Emanuel treats cabinet principals like minions. “I am not sure the president realises how much he is humiliating some of the big figures he spent so much trouble recruiting into his cabinet,” says the head of a presidential advisory board who visits the Oval Office frequently. “If you want people to trust you, you must first place trust in them.”
These small minded men are at the helm of a great state. This petty tyranny is taking place in an atmosphere where a terrified press is afraid to speak out. The Huffington Post article says sources have demanded anonymity because “because the consequences of retribution from this powerful foursome [Rahm Emmanuel, Robert Gibbs, Valerie Jarrett and David Axelrod] can be severe in an access-dependent town. John Podesta, president of the powerful, administration-tilting Center for American Progress, had the temerity and self-confidence to put his thoughts publicly on the record. But most others could not.”
The cumulative result of conditions means that whatever punch the Iranians intend to announce today that Washington is leading with it’s chin. It has thrown away every strength and magnified every weakness. It is an extraordinarily inept performance by a small group of men who have so far failed to show they are worthy of the great responsibility entrusted in them. Sometimes the quality of leadership goes beyond the ability to speak mellifluous phrases. It requires the ability to think clearly and act decisively. In times of crisis it is customary to quote Winston Churchill. But in our post-modern world his phrases, echoed in empty minds, can acquire ironic meanings. “Never was so much owed by so many to so few” is probably an apt way to refer to the deficit, and “never give in, never give in” may soon be quoted to spur the passage of Cap and Trade. Some things can’t be run like Chicago.
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“…. the consequences of retribution from this powerful foursome [Rahm Emmanuel, Robert Gibbs, Valerie Jarrett and David Axelrod] can be severe in an access-dependent town.”
Indeed. Take a look at Fox News Channel. They had the audacity to P.O. the White House so badly that they were branded “not a real news organization” – and FNC’s ratings went through the roof. They are now in danger of being buried alive by their excessive income. That’ll teach ‘em!
And the only way Keith Ubermann is going to get close to Beck or O’Reily is if he gets a job collecting their garbage.
An extraordinarily inept performance but an entirely predictable one nonetheless. For that matter one that was predicted often in these parts over the course of the past couple of years.
It may be that the only unresolved question regarding what these people have done and are doing is whether the attempt to degrade the country is of conscious or unconscious intent.
The most remarkable aspect of the current uprising in Iran is its lack of coordination from above. As many observers have noted, this is essentially a “leaderless revolution,” one organized by Twitter and Facebook rather than by any individual or group.
A Persian Tea party?
I wonder if their government is going to call them vile names and suggest that they are a “threat” to security? Thank goodness we live in a country where our leaders would never do such a thing.
Apparently, talking about talking…produced absolutely nothing.
Producing radioisotopes for PET imaging at 90% enrichment, seem to anyone else like a bit of a stretch? Or maybe that’s just me…
In the end…all the deep bows seem to have been for naught…and it is increasingly obvious that when bending over, it would have been more appropriate if he had been facing the other direction. I
Enough of this foreplay!
Can they just nuke someone already?
As you can tell I have had enough of Iran’s monthly claim to “stun” the world. (rolls eyes)
“Powerful Foursome” is an interesting term to describe folks like this. They are powerful in the sense they are one eyed men in the land of the blind. If these jokers are really running things, we are living in truly absurd times.
Making Rahm Emmanuel the “Grima Wormtongue” or poison counselor of the otherwise sagacious king inverts cause and effect, I think. The real problem is Barack Obama’s judgment. If these dudes are jokers, then who put the court jesters in charge of things?
One possibility is that, coming from a world dominated by a the permanent campaign, the President has not yet made the transition to governance. So he keeps the campaign crew in charge of things because they are the only things he knows and will probably hold them close until they are such a liability that he will be forced to rethink the problem from first principles. But by then a lot of water will have gone over the dam.
“Enough of this foreplay!
Can they just nuke someone already?”
I think when the moment of performance arrives, they will experience collective erectile dysfunction.
you know the type – talks a big game, but when the moment of truth arrives it turns out that all the get up & go got up and went.
And they’re still gonna have to pay for the room.
As far as Iran’s “punch” – my guess is an attack against the remaining embassies. It would be an attempt to recreate the glory days of 1979, and a totally insane thing to do. Which is why I think they’re just the guys to do it.
No! You have it all wrong!
Iran will shock and stun the entire Western imperialist world by introducing their own flash-enabled iPad-like device, with color display on the e-Koran functions, fourth generation cell phone with call waiting, video camera and editing software, priced below the Kindle, much less the iPad. The nuclear materials negotiations have just been part of the clever marketing campaign for the Islamic world’s response to Apple and Amazon. You will all be stunned.
The nuclear materials negotiations have just been part of the clever marketing campaign for the Islamic world’s response to Apple and Amazon. You will all be stunned.
And here I was expecting an upgrade to the famous buzzing prayer rug, “invented by a Jordanian in 2003 that buzzes when the user’s forehead touches a metal plate embedded in the rug.” The warranty doesn’t state whether it stuns the user in the bargain.
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/archives/005337.html
Seppo, I think you are right. They already punched google and gmail this morning.
Lowther,
a nuclear strike against Israel would devastate them as well
A desperate attempt at finding a rational interest when describing a Palestinian culture that glorifies the suicide bomber and has never managed to “miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.”
wretchard
If these dudes are jokers, then who put the court jesters in charge of things?
After 13 months it is still not clear if Obama is in fact the principle actor or just one of many stooges. Who really gives the orders there? There is as much evidence for thinking that the head of the SEIU has been in charge or Emanuel really is the boss as there is for giving credit to Obama. Which is to say almost no evidence that is reliable at all.
My hope of the month for Iran is a revival of Zoroastrianism.
We may have found another reason for Obama’s strangely solicitous behavior towards the Shi’ite regime, they both are obsessed with humiliating the British. Perhaps there is something in Obama’s personality that is strongly attracted to the secret rebel, the conspirator and the gnostic subversive. He is an elitist who lives to undermine a stable or even unstable order. That is what he sought to do as a Community Organizer. Perhaps during his exposure to Islam he found himself drawn to the outcast community of the Shia. He may be a more complex character than we have given him credit for.
“The protest movement has even disregarded calls from established opposition politicians to stop.”
Yes, the Iranians like Tea Parties too.
“Britain’s Ambassador in Tehran and four European counterparts are to boycott today’s celebrations of the 31st anniversary of the Iranian Revolution . . . .”
That will show them.
“These small minded men are at the helm of a great state. This petty tyranny is taking place in an atmosphere where a terrified press is afraid to speak out.”
Hilarious. This is the Obama administration, but I suspect that Richard leaves the ambiguity in play for two sentences for the reader to assume that he means the Islamic Republic.
The “Punch”? Doesn’t matter much whether it’s something or nearly nothing, since Iran has once again with little expense commanded attention, even for little or no event. Iran raises the political stakes and the overall impression of inevitability regarding their development of the bomb, and they know that the West will not call their bluff. Obama only knows how to double down on Republicans and Tea Partiers. Even if Iran had hired Axelrod it could not have better managed its nuke p.r. campaign.
Since the crew ruling Iran are of the same theological bent, wishing to initiate the apocalypse which will usher in the coming of the 12th Imam, it just might be something apocalyptic, and why not? What have they got to lose? The tide of their own public is against them, and will be out in force on this very day opposing Khameini, Ahmadinejad, and this kook theocracy. Why not bring down fire upon their own people or Israel to get things going?
I don’t know what the Iranians are planning. In the not so very distant past I performed a lot of highly classified analysis and reporting of educated guesses on exactly what Tehran was up to, so I can’t put my educated guesses out here in comments.
What I can say, is that when the Iranians complete their first nuclear detonation, assuming the Israelis don’t set the entire program back several years, every wealthy and sizable nation in the region will pull the covers off their own nuclear programs and redouble their efforts to arm themselves with tactical nukes.
The Arabs have watched Obamassiah throw our greatest and longest term allies under the bus one after the other during the last year.
This President wasted the last of his international integrity and trustworthiness at Copenhagen to put in a show appearance at a farce!
They may agree to place themselves under some new nuclear umbrella devised by the current administration, but they will still continue, at breakneck speed, research, development, and production to arm themselves.
Without a U.S. or Israeli overwhelming intervention, the second great nuclear arms race is about to begin.
…………………………………
Just to be safe, I hope all you B.C.ers have kept up your emergency preparedness. Food, water, shelter, medical supplies, weapons, training, etc.
If the blizzard on the U.S. East coast and earthquakes in Chicago don’t motivate you then Ahmadinnerjacket threats and reading One Second After should.
http://www.onesecondafter.com/
Semper Paratus
With all due respect, I would not really expect any US president to prevent Iran from getting an atomic bomb by force majeure or even coercive politics. It’s not the US’s job. We are not the kings of the world, superpower or not.
We must, however, deal with it as a reality, if it occurs, if we have not managed to prevent it through convincing diplomatic arguments. I suppose this must be some variety of MAD, and a continuing cold war against the mullahs.
What we get tomorrow, I have no idea. Maybe they’ll nuke a camel and expect the world to tremble. If we or anyone has a counter-stroke ready, we will also see. Perhaps a red, white, and blue goat will butt Achmadinejad in the ass.
Maybe America could not have prevented the Iranians from securing an nuke. But it didn’t help that the 2007 NIE declared they were no longer seeking it, thus disarming those who were trying to trying to oppose it.
All the attempts to sweet-talk Teheran failed dismally. They fed Lebanon to Syria or at least withdrew so much support as to make it inevitable to “peel Syria off Iran”. Result: nothing.
They announced a timetable for withdrawal in Iraq supposedly as part of a “grand bargain” in the region. Remember that phrase, “grand bargain”? Result: nothing.
The administration held back on supporting the Iranian protesters to avoid irking Teheran. Result: nothing.
The administration released the IRG guys accused of killing Americans as a gesture of goodwill. Result: nothing.
Now, at the 59th minute of the 11th hour, they are talking about restarting the sanctions processing. This after ticking of China gratuitously over marginal issues like “climate change”. The result will be nothing as well.
So it isn’t entirely a question of wanting to do more than America can achieve; it is whether or not the current administration has the ability to carry out the feasible. The perfectly possible becomes unattainable in the hands of the incompetent.
So will the Iranian leadership be gathered in a large public place with their most fanatical supporters and all the Western ambassadors ordered to stay away? That is interesting. Have they sent all family members out of the country and started destroying papers? To me the most poignant moment in Fail Safe was the Ambassador to Moscow on the telephone. For the love of God I think that to Barack Obama acting as presidential as Henry Fonda makes sense.
Armageddon Rex: The Arabs have watched Obamassiah throw our greatest and longest term allies under the bus one after the other during the last year.
I’m shocked! How can that be? Muslims favored Obama 2:1 in the election.
In Iran, “…inmates of Ward 1 of Gohardasht prison threw out the prison guards from their ward on Wednesday, took the full control of Hall 1 on the ground floor and Hall 3 on the 2nd floor and shot the gates, keeping the suppressive forces out. This was in reaction to suppressive forces’ brutal attack and inhumane pressures of the prison henchmen and torturers….
I guess in Iran they have real torture, not just wiping people’s faces with baby wipes or giving them the Q’u'r’a'n with their bare hands.
But it didn’t help that the 2007 NIE declared they were no longer seeking it, thus disarming those who were trying to trying to oppose it.
Willful blindness (aka magic realism) is seldom helpful, no matter what the game. Of course I recall George H.W. Bush saying of Marcos, “We admire his adherence to democratic ways”, when that was actually meant ironically or sardonically or however it was meant, and misfired entirely. So it’s hardly unknown on either side of the spectrum.
“This President wasted the last of his international integrity and trustworthiness at Copenhagen to put in a show appearance at a farce!”
Your example is a good one but you left out many others. Starting with the way he has treated our Allies as you mentioned.
What the terrible consequence of Obama’s inactions as well as his actions is that he has shown that the perception of him and his administration as being weak, confused and of no substance, is in fact, true.
That is the most terrible consequence. Because evil, greedy men will always attack and take advantage of those that are weak and confused.
So we will see what we will see.
Papa Ray
P.S. Iran is instigating a National E-Mail system so that they can monitor all e-mail sent and received in Iran, as well as shutting down Google’s email service.
As lifeofthemind notes cogently, Iran’s last chance at survival as a state might well be the grassroots expulsion of the jafari/mahdaviat lunatic clique, and a return to Iran’s (Persia’s) Zoroastrian antecedents. Or not. But the mahdaviats must be expelled from power. The return of the 12th imam from the well is not fiction to these Mohammedans- rather, a geopolitical goal.
As for Josh’s suggestion that BHO sit back, as America is not king of the world- America’s energy dependence on the ME requires that it be involved in Iran’s political evolution. To do otherwise would result in the far more unstable situation of a general ME nuclear buildup.
And, as always, watch China’s actions. What are the Chinese doing, beyond denying cohesive sanctions and signing gas deals with the mullahs? Always, ALWAYS note mercantilist China’s actions.
Seppo, you are brilliant…..
‘Tis said that God protects all fools
And the United States
I surely hope He does and that we’re
Not left to the Fates
The danger to this country now
Comes swift on marching feet
Cronyism, soaring debt
The Middle East drum beat
The war to come, the slow sad smile
The teleprompter speech
That promises to meet them at
Each landing field and beach
Incompetence at every hand
Vile treason some would say
Mirandize terrorists who try
To kill us Christmas day
The radicals have shown their hand
The cult of Che and Mao
Are pushing their agenda hard
They have the votes for now
But come November they will find
That two can play at Fates
For God protects all drunks and fools
And the United States
John Locke: “Hell is truth seen too late.”
#18 Teresita, the Arabs favored Obama 2:1? I thought that it was much, much higher like 9:1. BTW, even young Iranians overwhelmingly favored Obama. I wondered if they are happy with how Obama has worked out so far.
As for Josh’s suggestion that BHO sit back,…
Now, I did not say that.
I said basically not to expend energy on something that wasn’t going to work.
… unless we could build a strong consensus including Europe, China, and Russia – and that was not going to happen.
Realistically, what should we have done, and what should we do now? Hard questions. But doing nothing, is not the best answer to either.
If Michael Ledeen is correct, there’s plenty of incompetence to go around in Tehran as well as Washington:
The Iranian authorities have demonstrated an almost supernatural ability to screw up their own plans.
A case in point: the political center of the city is Azadi Square, and workers have been stringing loudspeakers (and probably cameras) all over the square and the approach routes, in order to drown out the chants of the demonstrators. So today they tested the system by broadcasting the national anthem. Except it was the shah’s anthem, not the Islamic Republic’s.
Was it sabotage, or that incredible knack of ruining even a simple dry run? Who knows? Whatever it was, it reinforces the regime’s popular image of a bunch of thugs who can only kill, maim and torture, but not build anything of value.
http://pajamasmedia.com/michaelledeen/2010/02/10/another-showdown-at-the-mullahs-corral/
Britain is lost; a captive of Islam, Iran, and the Mad Mullahs.
…-
“A criminal in uniform: Corrupt commander used race card, gets 4 years for framing innocent man
He swaggered around Scotland Yard believing he was above the law.
Commander Ali Dizaei bullied, intimidated and threatened anyone who crossed his path.
If that didn’t work, the Iranian-born officer accused them of being racist. But yesterday his reign of corruption came to a dramatic end when he was condemned as a ‘criminal in uniform’ and given four years in jail for trying to frame an innocent man.
Following a bust-up in a restaurant, Dizaei, 47, told colleagues that an Iraqi website designer had assaulted him.
It was a pack of lies and yesterday, after a four-week trial, a jury took just two-and-a-half hours to convict Dizaei of misconduct in a public office and perverting the course of justice.
They found he attacked Waad al-Baghdadi before arresting and attempting to frame him for assault.
Dizaei, who had been the subject of dozens of corruption allegations during his time in the Met, is the most senior Scotland Yard officer to be jailed since the 1970s.”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2448765/posts
Earl: America’s energy dependence on the ME requires that it be involved in Iran’s political evolution. To do otherwise would result in the far more unstable situation of a general ME nuclear buildup.
I hear that a lot, America’s energy dependence. We gotta sit there and take what Iran is dishing out. But when they start throwing nukes around, and we’re in another World War situation, is America really dependent outside her borders for energy? No, there’s the strategic petroleum reserve, for one thing, Canadian oil wells and oil sands for another, our own oil supplies, and to top it all off, we will go to rationing like we did in the Big One. Nobody could get new cars, tires, or more than a little bit of gas, just enough to go back and forth from home to the bomber factory. When the bubble bursts, nobody gets any Middle East oil. And I’d rather be under the umbrella of the military hyperpower than anywhere else.
Tersita:
I’m Canadian, and I take your point- we’re doing our bit for US external oil dependence (specifically, ~2.5M bbl/day), but KSA and other unstable states supply what CDN, MEX and VZ do not. Absent accepting your posited considerable (“Big One”) self-sacrifice stateside, the US is going to have to intercede presently in Iran. Would that W had done so immediately after the Shia uprising in Iraq and the IED wave against US troops, but that is now past history.
wretchard’s thesis is sound- due to BHO’s dangerous naivete and general WH incompetence, America has been weakened whilst now having to confront a very determined opponent.
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2010/02/10/general-us-air-force-nuclear-unit_7346739.html?boxes=Homepagebusinessnews
Is something going on here?
I find it hard to work up much sympathy for those who joined Obama’s cabinet. Most of them are third raters at best and way past their competency level.
buddy @ 31: Yikes!
toad @ 32: well how about some sympathy for us Americans who have these guys in our cabinet, but what should we have expected, having voted in what we voted in. God’s mercy on us swine.
For what it’s worth, I think that so-called “punch” that’s supposed to leave all of us “stunned” today will be a dud. It’s just more hot air from a weak regime. There is little the Iranian regime can do that would stun me.
YAWN
Buddy:
This is a continuing shake out from the Clinton “Peace Dividend” years when the U.S. military was downsized almost 50%.
Nuclear units used to get the cream of the crop regarding airmen, and hefty budgets to perform maintainence, training, security, etc.
Much of that went away with the “Peace Dividend” and reorganization of USAF, abolishing Strategic Air Command (SAC) and moving some assets into Air Combat Command (ACC) and United States Space Command (USSC), and retiring a bunch of old Cold Warriors and Strategic assets. This gave the USAF nuclear mission no home of it’s own. They’ve recently rolled that back with formation of Global Strike Command, sort of a anorexic SAC pretender.
A few years ago, safety, attitudes, and mission readiness finally degraded to the point of several very embarassing publicly disclosed mishandlings of nuclear weapons related material, including the famous unauthorized cross country flight of a B-52 loaded with nukes instead of training weapons.
For the past several years the office of the inspector general (IG) has savaged the ranks of nuclear units, and more than a handful of career USAF officers commanding nuclear units have tendered their resignations or been reassigned, to the probable detriment of any future promotion.
The Navy on the other hand seems to have either kept the tip of their nuclear submarine spear sharp and ready, or they just haven’t been caught yet. Ships at sea tend to be a world of their own, and the USN boomer community is even more insular than the USAF bomber and ICBM communities.
We haven’t had a “real” test of any nuclear weapon for almost 20 years. Our nuclear weapons are the pinnacle of engineering and manufacturing, but we haven’t verified they work for 20 years. Who knows if we really have a nuclear deterent or not?
#35 Armaggedon Rex, I got a “Click To Edit” with 11 minutes left. But when I clicked it just to see if it would let me, it did in fact say I did not have permissionn to edit your comment.
So maybe that bug that keeps popping up is harmless? Disconcerting, though.
#14 – AR – thank you for the reference. I’ve been concerned about this for some time. Ordered the book. Been stocking up for one crisis or another.
Knight1
28 maz2
“Britain is lost; a captive of Islam, Iran, and the Mad Mullahs.”
Tell me about it.
Christian teacher ‘forced out’ after complaining Muslim pupils praised 9/11 hijackers ‘as heroes’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1249393/9-11-bombers-heroes-What-Muslim-children-told-Christian-teacher-forced-job-tolerating-racism.html?ITO=1490#ixzz0fCDrplmC
Papa Ray
No it won’t be an Iranian iPad. The Islamic Destroyer Of Apple.
First guess: It will be the Omnipotent Islamic Burka. A a magical device that will envelop every women, of every faith or none, anywhere and whether they like it of not. Each morning a new ones will materialize and the old ones vanish.
Pretty damn ecologically desirable too. No waste.
My second guess. Speeches reaching new heights of hatred. They will announce a nuclear bomb, or successful fusion, or the long sought free lunch. Speeches will curse the West in every way possible and spit upon every word of Smart Diplomacy or ever spoken by Obama.
Hillary will express disappointment at the days events but remain optimism about something.
O will announce he has failed to make Iran understand his sincerity and ideas. Trying harder is his new highest priority. Maybe a Czar is needed too.
Totally OT:
Washington is digging out of another big snowstorm. the second one is less tahn a week. The area has had the most snow in one winter since records have been kept (we topped 1898-99).
If anyone tries to blame this on AGW within range of our shovels, they will regret it.
Norm @36:
Yes, it’s a disturbing “feature”. I’ve had it pop up a few times on other folks comments, but I always just closed my browser, restarted it, and when I reloaded BC it’s been gone.
Thanks for letting me know!
Knight1 @37:
It’s a good book, but a difficult read. It’s emotionally draining, and doesn’t have a happy ending.
Having said that, it is chocked full of good information. I read it over a long weekend, and had a tough time putting it down. There is a fair amount of debate regarding the extent of the phenomenon as described in the book, particularly with regard to aircraft, but much of the story is, unfortunately, quite probable.
If you’re trying to get prepared I recommend this website as a good semi-open source of reliable information:
http://www.alpharubicon.com/
Semper Paratus
Look, I live in Chicago, and after what seems like centuries of totalitarian Democrat rule, it takes a lot to “stun” me. This had better be good.
I cede to no one in my dislike of Obama and his SDS/Chicago Machine freak show, but Iran’s nukes are not entirely O’s fault; the West has been kicking that can down the road for quite some time now. Presumably they knew this day was coming, wot? They have been suffering from magical thinking.
============
Emmanuel and the rest are never going overboard unless they themselves quit; they’re Obama’s peeps. He’s got no one else.
===========
Oh, and Barry can be as complex as he wants to be; he’s still evil.
AP/35; thanks –these mysterious news bits freak me out –can’t get used to having an administration full of zealot America-hating authors whose books are pretty plain about the need to crash the Dollar and defense –and put stuff in the water to lower fertility, and whatnot. I think it’s called a pair o dime shift. Say, i wonder, when USA treats with Russia on nuclear weapons, such as the recently concluded treaty draft, who decides who we send to the meetings? If it’s the current admin, just answer ”go ahead and dig that fallout shelter”.
In the news this eve, Iran announces it has turned on a filter to shut Google out of the Iranian net, and has turned on a replacement. Google acknowledes something has happened. Is this the big knock?
***
DR/40; that very contention will be featured in the NYTimes in the morning –da news has leaked. the disappeared AlGore has probably been hanging around the building begging for it, so they gave it to him to get rid of him.
***
oops –sorry PR, i read from the bottom, and just now caight your #20 –
Look, I live in Chicago, and after what seems like centuries of totalitarian Democrat rule, it takes a lot to “stun” me. This had better be good.
I cede to no one in my dislike of Obama and his SDS freak show, but Iran’s nukes are not entirely O’s fault; the West has been kicking that can down the road for quite some time now. Presumably they knew this day was coming, wot? They have been suffering from magical thinking.
============
Emmanuel and the rest are never going overboard unless they themselves quit; they’re Obama’s peeps. He’s got no one else.
RWE: Take a look at Fox News Channel. They had the audacity to P.O. the White House so badly that they were branded “not a real news organization” – and FNC’s ratings went through the roof. They are now in danger of being buried alive by their excessive income.
And Sarah Palin by excessive votes.
Sarah infuriates the Left because the Left is filled with sexists who loudly proclaim they are not, in the same way we see the Left is also filled with racists who loudly proclaim they are not.
Bush had Colin Powell and Condi Rice for Secretary of State, but to the Left, his cabinet was lily white, because conservative blacks aren’t truly black.
To the Left, conservative women aren’t truly women. So the Left focuses on, for example, Ann Coulter’s Adam’s apple, suggesting she’s a man in drag. And Palin doesn’t fit the Left’s profile of a true woman, because, for example instead of aborting her Down’s syndrome baby, she went and had it. So in Palin’s case the Left just comes out and says what they really feel about women deep inside: We’re stupid.
“In times of crisis it is customary to quote Winston Churchill.”
Except these bozos not only can’t quote Churchill, they made a point of returning his bust to England upon occupying the White House.
About 40 years ago I heard of an experiment where volunteers wore goggles that turned the world upside down. And they spent days in this upside down world, trying to perform everyday tasks while their world was upside down. Then at some point, while still wearing those goggles, the world would flip upside right. And do so all at once. Then, when they remove the goggles, the world would be upside down again.
I think President Obama grew up looking at the world through leftist goggles. But the world he lived in — academia, community organizing and Chicago Politics — worked well with those goggles on. In fact that world, where intellectuals transferred wealth from others to themselves, made more sense with the goggles on than off.
But not so much being President. Everything is out of kilter with those goggles on. All the stuff that was suppose to work isn’t. People who seemed sensible at the start of first year seem a bit off their rocker at the start of the second. But if the world seems out of kilter with the goggles on, the world looks totally out of whack when he first takes them off. So of course he will want to keep them on.
But if circumstances should force him to look at the world without the leftist lens on, then his perceptions and world view could make a rapid shift. Of course, we all may be dead before it happens — in the unlikely event it ever does.
Still, it is possible. But Obama would have to be open to what liberals call “personal growth.” He hasn’t shown much sign of that — unless his offer to meet with Republicans is actually sincere. In which case he will throw the Fall elections to get a Republican congress and thus neuter the left. I’ve speculated about this possibility before (hoping to make Democrats nervous).
buddy @43:
You better start digging…
But unless you’re an architect or civil engineer I strongly recommend purchasing a set of plans before you begin. There may even be some perfectly good free plans circa 1950-60 out there on the web, in a library, or in your county’s planning dept. filing cabinets.
Remember, adequate air filtering, keeping out radioactive dust, and maintaining overpressure are key!
Be Prepared!
Semper Paratus
Britain has a clear choice: the British National Party, or Islamization and submission to Sharia. Those are it. Time for any other alternative was thirty years ago. Now, those are the practical choices.
For the US, the practical effect of the choices made by Carter onwards, is a catastrophic oil price rises to $300. These are the practical effects of an Iranian nuclear capacity. Since it guarantees an Israel strike BEFORE Iran can nuke them, at best. At worst, it would be Israel being wiped out, itself, with Iran now being able to push the US out of the Gulf and dictating terms to the Gulf wrt oil production and prices.
The regime can survive if it can sell oil at $300 a barrel, and probably even $200 barrel, because that will be enough to bribe the rural and urban poor, and pay the Basij and other forces. If oil stays in the price band set by OPEC (70-80) the regime collapses because there will not be enough money to pay the patronage it needs to survive.
Money not theology is driving events. Let us be serious, a man like Ahmadinejad, Khameni, and the corrupt brutes around them would sell out Allah and Mohammed if it meant they kept power and money.
If we proceed with the rational assumption that Iran needs to push the Americans out of the Gulf NOW, and rise prices, what could they do? If their forces are advanced enough, nuke Israel out of existence via Syria and Lebanon, and perhaps Gaza. Three or four nukes would do it. Leaving a rump Israel with half or more its population dead, easily conquered by Syria and Egypt, with its remaining population wiped out as Europe once again does not give refuge. This would allow Iran to force the US out of the Gulf (by threatening the Gulf regimes with what Israel got).
Perhaps they do not have that. Perhaps only one nuke will be ready. For testing. Then they can make sub-rosa threats, to the Gulf regimes, to immediately STOP PRODUCTION, while it is a race to see if Israel simply nukes first or sits like 1939 France during the Sitzkrieg waiting to be wiped out. I have no doubt that considerable amounts of Israelis would prefer if it came to it to be wiped out rather than kill lots of Iranians to survive.
Perhaps only a milestone of Iranian nuclear design or weaponization will be reached. This is the optimistic hope.
But it remains that Iran’s key objective is pushing oil prices to around $200 a barrel, as quickly as possible, for regime survival.
What does this do to Obama? Should oil prices rise so dramatically, all the spin, speeches, media cover, Katie Couric worshipping, covers of magazines proclaiming Obama the Sun King and Michelle Obama the most beautiful and femininely graceful (instead of linebacker built graceless boor) woman on earth, will not save Obama. The people will blame him completely, for not stopping Iran, and allowing it to push oil prices to $200 a barrel.
Oil sands, the rest, are a pipe dream. Green restrictions (Whole Foods and other companies no longer buy this having dumped Marathon Oil as suppliers) mean it would take DECADES at the quickest to bring production on board, and THAT will require oil prices guaranteed at $100 a barrel. It will certainly kill the trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic container trade, and make China bankrupt. It would cost too much to ship cheap shoes (or make them). Global protectionism in a shattered global economy is sure to result (along with the collapse of the EU). Countries will be tempted to seize weak neighbors on the margins, as every nation that can nukes up with the collapse of the US Security umbrella.
Copenhagen is at risk of being nuked by Pakistani forces, over cartoons. Washington will neither defend nor avenge such an attack. So Danes wishing to keep their nation from being nuclear cinders, must nuke up and do so immediately. This applies to Italy, Spain, and many other nations. Who also face poor and land hungry southern neighbors who can use the Med as a highway to simply take.
Obama is of course not culturally American, having been undeniably as a matter of record, born and raised a Muslim. He probably has always welcomed an Iranian nuke. Heck most of his advisers agree with that objective.
At any time Obama could have struck Iran with air-strikes and received great media and Republican support. Had he wanted to push Health Care, striking hard on Iran, even to the point of invading it to overthrow the regime, would have produced a “rally round the President” and a “finally!” sigh from most Americans who figure that America should have done this since 1979. Yes the Left would have carped but so what, he’s OBAMA. The media would have obediently labeled them all “racist.”
But Obama WANTED an Iranian nuke. So now he has what he wanted.
The irony is that Iran will, but unaware be fulfilling Bible prophecy. Their goal to bring the 12th Imam by initiating a ‘biblical’ catastrophe; will actual user him in. However the name used for him in the Bible, is the anti-christ.
Welcome to Revelation…
PS: Armageddon Rex is right.
“Just to be safe, I hope all you B.C.ers have kept up your emergency preparedness. Food, water, shelter, medical supplies, weapons, training, etc.”
Is this the big knock?
In my previous post (38) I indicated that it was only the Google Email that was effected and that the Iranian government had instituted a government run Email service. I will have to go find a link.
Here it is, scroll down.
“Iran’s telecommunications agency announced what it described as a permanent suspension of Google Inc.’s email services, saying instead that a national email service for Iranian citizens would soon be rolled out. It wasn’t clear late Wednesday what effect the order had on Google’s email services in Iran. “
I don’t see how this threat:
“”The Iranian nation, with its unity and God’s grace, will punch the arrogance (Western powers) on the 22nd of Bahman (February 11) in a way that will leave them stunned,” Khamenei, who is also Iran’s commander-in-chief, told a gathering of air force personnel.”
…is fulfilled by this email business.
Papa Ray
If that is all it is, I see nothing but an advantage for the government to monitor all emails in Iran, and restrict destinations.
Papa Ray
Whiskey, I have the regret to tell you that Europe will not collapse, at least so soon
http://tinyurl.com/yzqvqtm how the Hedges investors were cheating the rules on Greece, But the 27 EU nations said, enough is enough, beware ! and the EU members bought the greec debt coupons, thus drying the hedges fonds fishing reserve
but your economy is in a much difficult position, according to this analyse
http://tinyurl.com/yfokczv
Some things can’t be run like Chicago.
Political hacks from Chicago will never believe that. The problem from coming from a dysfunctional environment is that you are usually unfit to survive when you are injected into the world at large, often because you don’t realize that the rest of the world doesn’t live by or accept the rules of your nasty little sub-culture. Its cluelessness to the tenth power.
The parasites in the commode just can’t envision how rough life can be down in the sewers until somebody flushes and they find themselves there. Obama and his disciples are learning this the hard way.
Unfortunately, its the common people who have to suffer from their incompetence.
My impression is that Obama has never been serious about foreign policy and at best regards it as a necessary evil that interferes with his true calling. Thus if something isn’t posing an immediate crisis, then for all intents and purposes it doesn’t exist for him. Even in those domestic areas he does care about he seems incapable of decisive action and it’s possible that this administration is in permanent campaign mode because the scope of the office is simply too much for him. My guess is he’s waiting to see what the Iranians will do, (assuming he’s thinking about it at all) and in any case, until they do it, he’ll just keep whistling past the graveyard.
Michael Oren’s remark that this period resembles the period before the six-day war is certainly true. He doesn’t go into much detail in his interview but I think he’s right. Oren is of course the author of the classic book on the six-day war and now is the Israeli ambassador to the US so he’s uniquely positioned to comment on this issue.
The six-day war was preceded by great belligerence on the part of Israel’s enemies, mainly Nassar in Egypt. Not just the unending stream of belligerent remarks but concrete acts of belligerence. This included expelling the UN forces from Sinai, the buildup of Egyptian military forces in Sinai, and the closing of the straits of Tiran.
In addition to the belligerence there was an inability of the international community to do, well, anything, to protect Israel from these belligerent acts. Pres. Johnson, for instance, attempted to put together an international fleet that would sail with Israeli ships through the straits of Tiran to Israel. He failed. The likelihood of the intl community coming to Israel’s defense currently seems to be less than zero.
Today there is no question of belligerent remarks from Iran and its sycophants in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza. After the war in Leb in 2006 both sides have licked their wounds and been rebuilding. Israel has been training its troops and building up improved weapons and defenses. Hez has been rebuilding its missile stockpiles and has built new underground bunkers.
Recent remarks from Syria and Israel seem to suggest that any new conflict would involve Syria. The new belligerence coming from Syria suggests that they feel confident that they would prevail or at least do well in a conflict with Israel.
There were certain behind-the-scenes actions by the Russians that helped to propel the six-day war forward. They viewed the war as a conflict between their proxies and the US’s proxies. Today maybe Iran takes the position of Russia, or maybe Russia takes the position of Russia.
What I see is a power-keg. Both sides believe they can prevail against the other so are not likely to back down if push comes to shove. It seems like only a matter of time before this party gets started.
#11 Lifeofthemind . . .
I too hope for a restoration of Zoroastrianism. The sooner that people overthrow the reign of Islam, the better for them and for non-Muslims.
Islam has brought nothing but grief and decay to its followers.
whiskey,
A vote for the BNP is a vote to replace one set of racist Socialists with another set of racist Socialists. Over time it would make very little difference. The only party that is committed to repealing Socialism and which is explicitly not racist is the UKIP. If they gain enough influence to pull the Tories back towards Thatcherism, or even revive the memories of the classical Liberal tradition, which has no other home, they could realign British politics and help pull the country back from the brink. Certainly the Liberal-Democrats are more statist, more pro-EU and possibly even more anti-business than is Labour.
If the two divisions are between Socialists and Free Marketers on one axis and between Internationalists and Euro-skeptics on the other then a 4 way box can be graphed. The bottom left of the Socialist Internationalists has New Labour. The top left of the Socialist Nationalists is the BNP. The top right of the Market Nationalists is the UKIP. The bottom right region for the Market Internationalists is largely unoccupied. In theory it could be the home of the Liberal Democrats but in practice their high tax policies, and their allies in Brussels, are hostile to the Market.
The Tories are a party torn in several directions. Their origins were not as the party that represented the interests of commerce and industry but rather those of tradition and agriculture. Part of them still aspire to a vision of Little England aristocratic Socialism. The same legacy that lead some Conservatives to support Mosely and the National Front before WW-II could draw them to a platform of nativist socialism. Their argument with the BNP wouldn’t be with it’s vision but with the social leadership. Many of these people tend to be anti-American and anti-Semitic. My expectation is that over time their nationalism will morph into an alliance with some Islamic interests. This happened to the National Front in France. More Tories are drawn to the space occupied by the LibDems. They are internationalists who are shedding their old attachment to America in the hope of finding a new role for Britain in Europe. They may help pull the LibDems into a more Free Market direction but they will probably end up conforming to the interests of the regulatory state. That leaves a sizable number of Euro-skeptic Tories who are either friendly to America or indifferent and who now hope to revive a traditional Liberal vision that has been abandoned by the parties that grew out of the commercial Whig heritage.
To be blogged under the title “UK Politics.”
#41 – AR – Once again, thank you. I’ve bookmarked the site.
Knight1
My immediate thought is that these are people, who living in the latest ‘Great Nation’, have never had to know the consequences of their failures. They reap the benefits of their successes but can bury their failures. They have no skin in the game, as it were.
But suppose Ahmadinnerjacket announces that not only do they have the bomb but multiple copies and they are now to be set alight. And many American cities disappear under nuclear flowers. Then this current crop will feel the pain quite quickly as mobs storm the gates of DC demanding blood from their feckless leaders.
Though in actuality, Dinnerjackets “stunning” will be some little ‘pooft’ and we shall all have a good chuckle.
Don R @ 40: Greta @ Fox said that the fed gov’t was – HORRORS! – shut down for the 3rd day. That it cost $100b/day or some such. I think it is probably a bargain. Keep the buggers from mucking about in our lives for another day – HOORAY!
buddy @ 31: Relax. It is just getting the paperwork back up to snuff. They still do what they do and do it correctly. This is a big yawner.
whiskey @ 49:
Wrong and so deeply wrong I won’t even try to enlighten you.
Jeez, man, you are running stupid today. What does the phrase “Never Again!” mean to you. That is the Israel informal national slogan. And Bibi is in charge again.
Papa Ray @ 51: If that is the big bad “knock” then I am really, really sceered, I surely am. They put their foot more tightly on the necks of their citizens who are surely tired of their nonsense. Have they been studying with The Zero?
Life — A vote for the BNP is certainly a vote for the Socialists. But it would be a vote AGAINST: Islamization, and subjugation by an alien people.
British people have two choices, both are bad. One is to be socialist, but native-born socialist, oriented towards preserving the native racial group that has been their since the Paleolithic and the retreat of the glaciers. This is bad, but English would still be spoken, Shakespeare taught, beer and sausage drunk and eaten. Britain would be recognizably Britain.
THE OTHER alternative is to be under Sharia Law run by Pakistani-origin South Asians, speaking an alien tongue, and worshiping an alien god. An foreign racial group running everything to the detriment of the (former) native majority, now a despised minority in its own homeland. No matter how satisfying to anti-Colonialists to see a European nation subjugated by colonization of its own by former possessions, the matter is likely to be settled in the same way that say, the former India and Pakistan threw off colonialism.
If you are a Muslim, or even better, a Pakistani-origin Muslim, anything other than the BNP sounds great! Because inevitably you and your descendants will rule Britain like the rulers of Al Andalus.
If you are White, and a native of Britain, anything other than the BNP will leave you essentially like the Copts of Egypt. At best.
Life is rarely a choice between rainbows and a sewer. It’s generally between bad and total disaster. This is the legacy that Conservative AND Labor have left for more than thirty years — Native Britons have a choice of staying British and voting BNP to get a “blood and soil socialism” or being ruled by Pakistani Muslims sooner rather than later.
The time for choices OTHER than that was twenty years ago. Right now it is simply TOO LATE. Principally because it will take wholesale deportations, with an ugly disregard for humanity, legality, and simple human decency, to keep the majority in Britain the majority, and not the Copts in Egypt.
Problems kicked down the road don’t get better, only worse, as do the measures required to solve them. Most native Britons do not want to be discriminated minority in their own land, with Sharia imposed on them. Their only means to avoid this is the BNP. Socialism is thus irrelevant to survival.
This applies to Muslims in Britain as well as Iran’s nukes.
The UKIP, Tories, Labor, and Social Democrats are all jokes when it comes to stopping Islamization by ending immigration and kicking out all/most of the Pakistanis there. This is the only issue that “matters” to the average Briton who is daily made a minority in his own land and sees differential birth rates quickly making Muslims from Pakistan the dominant group. Already as noted in the cite, Muslims receive special consideration and are the only “First Class” citizens in Britain, with the native majority actively discriminated against. All this matters more than Euro-skepticism or embrace, anti-Americanism, anti-Semitism (rampant anyway in all parties and British society) or anything else.
Tis is not about a sort of fruit brew?
Aha! Big punch to Western warmongers!
http://www.payvand.com/news/10/feb/1099.html
“This after ticking of China gratuitously over marginal issues like “climate change”. The result will be nothing as well.” I think the spat with China over Google started with some junior person in the Chinese Finance Ministry sending an email via GMail that they should not have, probably about the upcoming buy of U.S. Treasuries by Beijing, and word got back to the Forbidden City. Just my hunch. Uncle Sugar reads GMail all day long.
Once again, the Obamatron has BSODed.
So if Obama is paralyzed by indecision and/or ignorance in re to Iran, what are China, Russia, and North Korea going to do? I guarantee that they are watching very closely, and thinking …
Just thinking would be up teh Won alley. I think they are past thinking and getting close to doing phase, if not already in it.
Regarding England religious demographics, do not forget that there is a large Hindu South Asian population. Solution: increase Hindu population.
Adherents % pop
Christian 42 079 000 71.6
No religion (inc. Jedis)1 9 104 000 15.5
Muslim 1 546 626 2.7
Hindu 552 421 1.0
Jedi Knight 390 000 0.7
Sikh 329 358 0.6
Jewish 259 927 0.5
Buddhist 144 453 0.3
Maineman @ 2 … and others
On whether the current government’s failures and ineptitudes are “conscious or unconscious” and WH/Congressional fumbling is intentional or not.
Ever heard of Antonio Gramsci? Gramsci’s “Long March through the institutions?”
How about the Frankfurt School? Indoctrination in U.S. school system? Or Obama’s “American Hero” Saul Alinski dedicating his book to Lucifer?
“The idea was not to create a perfect state operating by the clockwork principles of Marxist law but to promote a chaos that would cripple America and ultimately cast it into a receivership that would be administered by the morally superior third world … people shouldn’t expect the revolution to achieve a Kingdom of Freedom; more likely, it would produce a Dark Ages.” — Jim Mellen, leftist radical, 1967 (from Destructive Generation, Peter Collier, p.77)
The string theorist Luboš Motl at The Reference Frame said on Feb. 7th in “Mahmoud orders weapon-usable uranium“:
=====
However, 20% is sufficient for an inefficient weapon: it’s called “weapon-usable” uranium. That’s exactly what Mahmoud ordered today.
=====
It appears that the “Great Blow” struck against the West is the announcement that Iran is now enriching uranium to a 20% U-235 level.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1250127/Iran-Revolution-day-protests-Islamic-Republic-nuclear-state.html
Incidentally,I draw your attention to the pair of side by side pictures part way through the article. Specifically to the right hand picture. This is a government sponsored and organized demonstration. You betchum Red Ryder, that was approved by the regime.
For those who are not familiar with uranium based nukes; U-235 is the isotope that either boils water or grows large, exothermic mushrooms. In nature, uranium is only 0.72 of 1% U-235. Short and dirty explanation: It is commonly refined by mixing it with Flourine in the form of Uranium Hexaflouride [REAL nasty, evil stuff]. Spin that real fast in centrifuges and the miniscule difference in weights of the molecules causes them to separate [the inert U-238 that makes up 99.27% of uranium is barely measurably heavier than the U-235. Take the light stuff, and spin it again, and separate it again, repeat as needed until you get enough U-235 concentrate at a level sufficient to do what you want. Each iteration is progressively more efficient, yielding higher concentrations.
Uranium nuclear reactors run on only about 3-4% U-235. Any enrichment above that is for nuclear weapons. There is no other reason to have any quantity of a higher enrichment. Keep that in mind.
The Russians furnished the raw materials and equipment to the Iranians. Reports are that the uranium products given to the Iranians were already enriched to the 9% level. There is only one reason for Russia to give that to Iran.
If they are now at the 20% level, and in the interim they have been building thousands of centrifuges to expand their enrichment capabilities, they are not that far from growing those mushrooms. I would guess that we are long past the point where anything can be done short of a strike on Iran.
The Democratic Party in general, and their moles in the intelligence field who leaked the deliberately falsified NIE claiming that Iran had cancelled their nuclear weapons program in order to harm G.W. Bush and aid themselves and buy the terrorists time are in fact traitors and the blood of all Americans killed in what is to come will be on their hands.
Fiat iustitia ruat caelum!
#35 Armageddon Rex
Agreed. In the past, for a number of reasons I paid occasional visits to the 90th Strategic Missile Wing at Warren AFB. We got the full tour including some very interesting briefings on what they were doing in the way of modernization, training in the launch procedure [even in what they call an "emulator"; it is chilling to turn the key.] and visits and briefings at on-duty and fully operational control capsules in the missile fields.
The first few times I visited [1980's] the Wing, its officers, and enlisted men were some of the most dedicated, squared away I have ever met. The image that came to mind when I was there was of Jesuit warrior priests. Damn, they were good. Just the kind of serious, level-headed people you want in such positions.
The last time I was up there was during Desert Shield, before Desert Storm. You could tell that they were no longer getting the best and brightest. There was an unusually high percentage of “Mustang” officers. That is definitely not a bad thing, and I think that they were holding things together. Mustangs are frequently far better officers than ring-knockers. It is just that in any service, when you get a high concentration of Mustangs, it means the field is a career backwater.
I saw things that scared me, and I’m fearless.
A Wing Intell Officer who did not even know her own briefing and kept fumbling it.
A missile combat crew commander who was wearing a flight suit with an embroidered on “handle” like a fighter pilot. The handle was “Killer” and a scarf tied around his neck loosely [not the normal pressed ascot that combat crew wear]. That does not leave a happy feeling in the pit of the stomach when you realize that when not being one of our escorts, he was in charge of a flight of 10 PEACEKEEPER MIRV missiles.
The group I was part of is … well thought of …. by the services. We are viewed as being on their side. We toured on a weekend. The senior NCO’s gave up part of their weekend to be at the different Emulators on the base when we came. We were approaching the Silo Training Facility. Our bus came to the wrong gate. A very senior AF SGT [too many stripes to count in a hurry but he looked like a zebra on steroids] came out and rendered a salute that would have done the Guards at the Tomb of the Unknowns proud. “Killer” [O-3] gave a wave with his hand not rising above waist level, and responded with, “Hi guy!”. The look on the SGT’s face at being publicly disrespected so was a mixture of fury and contempt.
Yeah, we all noticed. The Wing Operations Officer [O-4] who was our other escort apparently took it as the norm.
There were other indications that I will not discuss. But, yeah, they are no longer the sharp edge of the sword. Somebody is, I hope, ripping new bodily orifii to get them up to speed.
Subotai Bahadur
ForNow/69
20% is very inefficient. Depends on the system of delivery. You have to use more stuff the less enriched it is. Let me think… At 80% the critical mass is about 64 kg. At 85% it is 55 kg or about. So, at 20% you would need … about 140 kg or a bit more. And that is just the nuclear explosive, the gear housing (warhead) may be another 20-30 kg. May be a bigger payload than Iranian missiles can carry.
They’ll keep enriching to 50%-60%, to get stuff for more missiles. Well, I mean they’ll try that. They may not get the time.
“Incidentally,I draw your attention to the pair of side by side pictures part way through the article. Specifically to the right hand picture. This is a government sponsored and organized demonstration. You betchum Red Ryder, that was approved by the regime.”
Sabotai, the regime went all out to fill the central square with 500,000 people. so you are probably seeing all the family members of every supporter the regime has in that picture too. I don’t know if a lot of them in the shot are not Syrians, maybe some Hezbollah in the mix as well. For Iranians the day is still a big deal, despite the current distaste, the place holds Khomeini in reverence. Khameini not even close to so much.
#73 whatdoyoumeanitstoohot
I think you mistook what I meant. Here is the specific picture I was referring to:
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2010/02/11/article-1250127-083D8D8B000005DC-913_306x464.jpg
The implication being that all the personal grovelling and voluntary performance of acts that in some jurisdictions would be listed as “crimes against nature” have not done either diddly or squat to improve relations or influence Iranian policy in a direction beneficial to the US.
I absolutely agree that the square was deliberately packed with supporters of the regime. They were trying to crowd out the dissidents. The only thing is that it seems to have succeeded, and there is the specter of Tienanmen redux repeated prn until they suppress any rebellion.
And probably we will see the next move by Obama will be to find some way to either congratulate the Mullahs after any such massacre or to try to justify their actions. The times may be interesting, but that does not mean that they are going to be fun.
Subotai Bahadur
Obama’s National Defence Review ignores Iran and Islam in favour of… climate change!
subotai, for your ‘early-warning’ file, a message from the frontier:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
see the Thursday, Feb 11 entery, take a look at the 30 year bond auction charts (below the Liz Warren video) –this is a *big* straw in the wind –unless there were exogenous factors in the auction –if it was ‘pure’ the bid-to-cover at the price and SOMA participation means –re a 30 yr auction –the sum of fears has a foot in the door already.
The implication being that all the personal grovelling and voluntary performance of acts that in some jurisdictions would be listed as “crimes against nature” have not done either diddly or squat to improve relations or influence Iranian policy in a direction beneficial to the US.
Sabotai Bahadur, I did misunderstand.
And, as I can’t speak to unnatural relations, or acts that require diddly or squat as relates to diplomacy or intimate human affairs, I will, um, defer to you’re more experienced and ah, worldly understanding of events there, with the understanding that you claim no first hand knowledge either.
Buddy,
re 30 yr auction, What is with the mystery direct bidder? I am not following?
“This petty tyranny is taking place in an atmosphere where a terrified press is afraid to speak out.”
The US mainstream media. Surely you jest, Wretchard. They still love him, and just like a beaten wife, they will protect and justify him.
wmmith/78; ”direct” means non-foreign –so non-mystery direct are the primary broker/dealers –what Denniger is noting is that some of the buyers were domestic but –i’m guessing –not from the among the handful of official primary broker dealers. Spec’ing here but could it be TARP, and/or the mysteriously slushy lip-zipped plunge protection team trying to make sure the bid-to-cover looked respectable –?
Goldman Sachs has forever i guess had a quiet account –sort of a unacknowleged open secret –that at the Fed or Treasury’s behest would from time to time enter the mkt to interrupt a sudden bad currency or gold ‘thin-market’ price gyration –kind of a surge protector, damping or capacitor sort of function to prod orderliness along during the odd temporary disconnect.
Buddy, your #76: There are points in the jargon that I have never learned. However, a few things did strike my attention:
1) Increases in yield are, at this time and IMHO, desirable. The populist appeal in keeping borrower interest rates abnormally low has led to savers being screwed. All of this put together has contributed mightily to ongoing economic difficulties. Therefore, increased yields appear commensurate with corrective forces at work.
2) What I would consider the absolutely critical stat is the number of bids offered vs those taken. Still better than two to one. If we ever get to the point where less is tendered than offered, then the defecation will have encountered the oscillation.
3) The data on direct and indirect bidders (again a lot of which I do not understand)
does indicate to me some nervous inflows into US Treasuries and again I rather imagine this is foreigners worried about the value of the euro, yuan etc. Not nervousness about Obamaroid capabilities to do additional harm.
4) In conjunction with (3) above, having those two Chinese Generals advocate the dumping of Chinese dollar holdings would cause yields to rise. But if China actually did that, then we should shout
“PLEASE DON’T THROW ME INTO THE BRIAR PATCH!” and keep shouting until they do just that.
Straw in the wind? Maybe so. But maybe some fresh air in that incoming breeze.
dave, good points as always emanting from your fertilizer –oops i mean fertile –mind. The thing that’s scary is –well, look up the bond market under Carter –that says it all. and this time around, with so much depending on mortgage rates staying low –well it’s just scary –what with mkts operating off discounting a possible deliberately opaque future set of drivers and all. But yes it we start getting a demand-pull on rates then that’s healthy all the way, i agreez wif ya.
Re the jargon, the 2.0 bid-to-cover is the thumbnail bare minimum for a ”successful” auction –a good one will run up into the 4 territory. And the foreign buying is the ”indirect” –i think it may refer to just the foreign central banks, but foreign for sure.
http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/93659/
leads to a nice ref to wretchard by:
J.
7:28 PM PST
Okay, then it looks like the looming problem
is that too many Treasuries have already been issued—-and for no good reason to boot.
Hence a drying up of funds from those who will buy Treasuries regardless.
I remember the late-Carter early Reagan bond market. If I had not been broke at the time, I think I would have sunk money into closed-end bond funds.
I’ve got a whole litany of what to do next, but all that will hafta keep till the morrow.
Back in 2008 Jeff Mackey, when he was still on CNBC Fast Money, said there were only two positions to be in – cash and fetal.
GL, Dave; i know how to make the markets go up –all i have to do is sell out. the entir universe was created just to thwart ME.
Buddy, you sound paranoid. Does that mean they really are out to get you? Of course some guy from either Brooklyn or Joisey told me that Obama and Biden were the real pair o noids.
Sorry for the delay in replying, but I had several errands to do and even we schizophrenics can’t be in more than five or six places at one time.
I once went to work in a broker’s back office. Woman there told me that if I signed on she would teach me how to strip, strap, spread, straddle and do it on the floor. How did I know she was talking about options?
hmm –that’s one of the questions often mulled during the free time one has as a guest at the Hotel Graybar
The Queens Riddle
Barak Obama meets with the Queen of England. He asks her, “Your
Majesty, how do you run such an efficient government? Are there any
tips you can give to me?”
“Well,” says the Queen, “the most important thing is to surround
yourself with intelligent people.”
Obama frowns “But how do I know the people around me are really intelligent?”
The Queen takes a sip of tea. “Oh, that’s easy. You just ask them to
answer an intelligent riddle.”
The Queen pushes a button on her intercom. “Please send Tony Blair in
here, would you?”
Tony Blair walks into the room. “Yes, my Queen?” The Queen smiles.
“Answer me this, please, Tony. Your mother and father have a child.
It is not your brother and it is not your sister. Who is it?”
Without pausing for a moment, Tony Blair answers, “That would be me.”
“Yes! Very good,” says the Queen.
Obama goes back home to ask Joe Biden, his vice president, the same question.
“Joe. Answer this for me. Your mother and your father have a child.
It’s not your brother and it’s not your sister. Who is it?”
“I’m not sure,” says Biden. “Let me get back to you on that one.” He
goes to his advisors and asks every one, but none can give him an
answer. Finally, he ends up in the men’s room and recognizes Colin
Powell’s shoes in the next stall.
Biden asks Powell, “Colin! Can you answer this for me? Your mother
and father have a child and it’s not your brother or your sister. Who is it?”
Colin Powell yells back, “That’s easy. It’s me!”
Biden smiles, and says, “Thanks!” Then, he goes back to speak with Obama.
“Say, I did some research and I have the answer to that riddle. It’s
Colin Powell.”
Obama gets up, stomps over to Biden, and angrily yells into his face,
“No, you idiot! It’s Tony Blair!”
……………………………………………………………….
I might be schizoid but I know who I am. (Is that solipsistic?)
LOL –and one the Tacoma camshaft front,
Oh, life is a glorious cycle of song,
A medley of extemporanea,
And Toyota’s not being abused and done wrong,
And I am Marie of Romania.
I don’t *know* about Toyota but my radar is on high alert. Convenience and coincidence are the twin towers of conspiracy.
To Obams, writ on the hand >>>>>>
Buddy, Mighty Handy, too.
So just what is that slushing sound from the banks that didn’t drown, is it cash or is it credit? The commercial lending squeezed by shortselling disease all abound, is that a crash or just debit?
Timmy G has his academic think tanqury all in a glass and on ice, not stirring cause all the money is not being used or abused or funny. It sits there, for confidence sake, because no one has the guts to make a move.
Unless it is someone else. Or isn’t it.
IOW Geithner can’t attempt to fix it because all the rest of it is broken too, and nothing works like it is supposed to work when the engine can’t get gas cause the clogged filter is in the tank and the fuel pump has been turned off. And now the water that clogged the line in the first place is froze and burst a critical seam, I could have used a part off of the old car but its gone in trade for this clunker.
Okay if the market isn’t working because Americans aren’t working then Timmy G has no means to sop up all that surplus excess cash on the banks hands. Is this where interest on holding my money comes to play? Or does it pay to lend anymore.
wmith/93; well, the Democrats are learning YET again that when people try to tell them that economic activity is as much spiritual as material, THEY AIN’T LYIN’.
(my opinion, we’re sunk until the obams are out)