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The Fantasy of the Deal

November 16th, 2014 - 6:23 pm

Everyone’s an Iran expert, as you may have noticed.  Everyone has an opinion about what sort of deal is being concocted between us and the Iranian regime, with pundits, experts, reporters, and pols weighing in on epiphenomena ranging from the number of Iranian centrifuges that will be allowed to how quickly or slowly the remaining sanctions will be lifted.

Here in Washington the “inside story” that has been circulating for more than a week is: the deal is all done and it will be announced before the 24th, the nominal deadline for the negotiations on a “permanent” agreement.

I’ve been here since 1977, approaching forty years, and “inside stories” have been wrong…almost always.  Say 80-90 percent of the time.  That’s because the “information” is circulated to advance or sabotage policies or individuals, not to inform.  So I don’t pay much attention to such stories.

I try to reason from first principles or known facts.  It’s not as sexy as passing on “what the insiders are saying,” but it has a somewhat better track record.  Yeah, most forecasts, even those based on known facts and first principles, are wrong, but they aren’t THAT wrong, if you see what I mean.  And when it comes to Iran, there’s always a considerable amount that we don’t know and aren’t going to know, so it’s best to be tentative.

But we do know some things, and there is an historical record that is pretty consistent, so let’s go with that stuff.

–We know that Obama badly wants a deal, most any deal that will get him on board Air Force One for a spectacular arrival in Tehran and an embrace with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.  His Inner Nixon dream.  He’s prepared to make all manner of concessions to stage that scene.  So we pretty much know “our side” of this melodrama;

–On the other hand, we also know that Khamenei does NOT want a deal with the Great Satan, and he has no interest in securing Obama’s legend.  He is sick, he may well believe that he has limited time left on this earth, and he doesn’t want his legacy to read:  he came to terms with Satan;

Top Rated Comments   
No, the offence is that he failed to include the US State Department in that statement.

Cheers
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
Michael makes an excellent case that Khameini holds all the cards, and has even less reason than normal to refuse to make a deal (because no one believes Obama will act against Iran).

What then would entice him (Khameini) to deign to make a deal with the Great Satan?

I’m only speculating, but if I put up the coldly plotting evil of Khameini against the narcissistic post-colonial America-loathing Obama, the only way Khameini makes a public deal is if Obama offers a guarantee that he will prevent Israel from taking matters into their own hands.

I think Obama is dark enough to do such a thing. Probably the only thing that would hold him back is concern that the electorate would not stand for it. But would it?

The Axelrod/Jarrett/Obama cabal will be using their carefully timed crises/opportunities of Amnesty/DOJ appointment/Ferguson/Budget/et al to get their most important priorities through while they strategically concede on one or more to divert attention with the complicit MSM against a scandal-weary public that has put too much trust in the recent election victory.

Difficult times ahead for Americans but especially for those citizens of other nations/regions unfortunate enough to be in the cross-hairs of tyrants across the world.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
The Obamateurs WILL make "a deal", Michael.

Because, frankly...they are on the same side.
You believe Obama wants to "negotiate". (Or Valerie Jarrett, the Shadow President)

What would Frank Marshall Davis do?

Or Rashid Khalidi?

Louis Farrakhan and Jeremiah Wright?

Bill Ayers?

Don Warden?

The very people to whom Obama cleaved the whole of his life...if we ask ourselves what they would do...why would we believe that Obama would do anything differently? It is rather silly to believe that a man SEEKS OUT these people for the past 40 years...and then we deduce that his actions will magically be opposite of that singular, linear, straight line path.

He's not negotiating AGAINST Iran...he is negotiating against the country he has vehemently opposed since pre-pubescence.

He's just trying to find the Gruberian Lie to cover his actions.

However...this is one vote that may, might or could...find enough votes for an override. Maybe.

That could be the ONLY thing keeping him from pulling the trigger.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
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All Comments   (41)
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And I was SO sure that President "Peace in our Time" Obama has this deal in the bag!

Does not matter either way: the Iranians have every intention of doing whatever THEY want regardless and President Obama has absolutely NO intention of sanctioning them if they do or don't sign a treaty.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
Lemme guess: No deal because the Iranians are Hell-bent on getting a nuke and NOTHING short of dropping one on them will stop them. How's that?
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
Oh, Michael: From your lips to God's ears. If we can only last long enough til the Repubs are sworn in in January!
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
Despicable because stupid.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
And these America-despisers neither fear nor hesitate to start another firestorm on Capitol Hill, the which, and that which it represents, is already despicable in their eyes.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
Clinton and Bush/Rice fundamentally wanted to protect America. Today, their successors in the White House want to undo America but install themselves as the successor region's hegemons. They want security but not sovereignty for the post-American successor region they imagine. And they believe security is had by talking endlessly with foreign but fellow America-despisers. So, they are not negotiating to protect USA sovereignty, they are negotiating to secure Iranian self-interest, which includes defeating Israel and Saud. And the pattern you mention will be broken this time.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
time will tell about breaking the pattern, we'll know in a few days. and don't forget that "Iranian self-interest" includes destroying us...it isn't just a regional mission for them.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment

No matter how rudely and regularly this outfit is humiliated in international affairs, they persist in their ideology that all the world's problems are the result of US militarism and all will be well if they can just demonstrate a change of policy.

Even Jimmie Carter figured out that the Russians dance to their own tune and toughened up on his last months in office. Our latter day progressives are true believers and impervious to the observable facts.

Or maybe their own internalized sense of international justice renders them indifferent to the perceived setbacks for the United States.
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6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
they act as if they welcomed US setbacks.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
I imagine tin-pot dictators are lined up around the block trying to sign deals with this President.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
"I reckon the Brits and Germans might (they don’t like sanctions, which they are eagerly avoiding anyway, and they probably have convinced themselves that Iranian nukes would be used against Israel, which they wouldn’t mind all that much). "

Wow. That's a bold statement. Not saying that I know it to be correct or incorrect, but wow.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment

I still find it incredibly ironic that the sand-people are trying desperately to capitalize on the science brought to the West by such people as Oppenheimer and Einstein.

Yes....Jews. Damned smart Jews who spent their lives examining the mind of God, to paraphrase a notion.

Is (phlegm)mani aware of this fact or will the sand-people usurp that science too in order to fit their worldview?

I suspect so. Otherwise how can they justify using that "ikky" Jewish science and stuff to make a squeaky-clean bomb?
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
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