Going to War?
Fellow PJM columnist Jonathan Spyer, one of the best reporters on things Syrian, now believes that the tide of battle has turned against President Assad, and that the regime may be forced to retreat to a rump state in the western coastal region sometime in the next several months. If that happens, it would be a stunning defeat for Assad and his allies in Moscow, Beijing, and Teheran, even though the regime might well live on in an amputated form for many years.
The Russians and the Iranians have been arming and funding the regime’s Army. We’ve read recently about Iranian airplanes exploiting Iraqi airspace to smuggle weapons, and there’s a busy ground traffic as well. The Iranians have also been doing a good deal of the killing. You’ll recall that they started by sending snipers and advisers at the beginning of the uprising–figuring that the same methods they used in the streets of Iran would succeed in Syria as well–and today there are abundant Iranian Revolutionary Guards on the battlefields, thereby violating the regime’s strong preference for sending others (preferably Arabs) to fight and die for the Islamic Republic. They are losing a considerable number of them; in the last 10 days alone, more than 45 RGs have been killed by opposition forces, and this does not take into account a significant number of Hezbollahis.
The strategic importance of Syria is demonstrated by the surprising fact that supreme leader Ali Khamenei has given Assad a blank check. The Syrian tyrant has been promised all the money, all the weapons, and all the manpower he needs to survive. The Russians are acting with similar resolve.
It isn’t very difficult to figure out why the Russians and the Iranians are going all in: Syria provides the Russians with their only reliable ally in the region, as well as that warm water port the czars always coveted, while for the Iranians Assad’s country has provided the operational base for Hezbollah, and a training center for terrorists who killed so many Americans in Iraq.
So when you hear stories about the misery Western sanctions are inflicting on the Iranian people, remember that the regime is dispersing a lot of hard currency and a lot of bodies to the Syrian war. And that comes on top of all the money going to Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, Hamas, and various terrorists and supporters of the Islamic Republic all over Africa and the Middle East, most notably Jordan of late.
The misery of the Iranians, which is real and getting worse, is the result of strategic decisions made by the Iranian tyrants, and their Russian (and often also their Chinese) allies, to arm the mass murderers from Syria to Nigeria.
But few things go according to plan in this life, and in recent weeks some of the most effective Russian weapons have ended up in the hands of Assad’s enemies in the Free Syrian Army. Last month the opposition forces conquered “Base 46″ in the north, and “liberated” some valuable Russian antiaircraft missiles, the SA-16s, known as “Gimlets.” Already, one helicopter and one jet fighter have been destroyed by Gimlets.
The FSA are so pleased they are bragging about their ability to create a “no-fly zone” even if the United States continues to withhold effective military training and support.
But don’t forget Khamenei’s (and presumably Putin’s) blank check: Assad is entitled to use any and all methods to win. No surprise, then, when we learn that even the Obama Administration is “concerned” about the possibility that Assad will deploy chemical weapons against the FSA if push comes to shove. Hillary is warning that the United States might be forced to act (imagine!) if that occurs. Here she is in her finest stern schoolmarmish mode:
I’m not going to telegraph in any specifics what we would do in the event of credible evidence that the Assad regime has resorted to using chemical weapons against their own people, but sufficing to say that we’re certainly planning to take action if that eventuality were to occur…
I know what you’re thinking, and I quite agree: what? Obama is going to war in the Middle East on the basis of “credible information” of the use of weapons of mass destruction? Do Sy Hersh and his loyal followers at Code Pink know about this?
Hard to believe, and I doubt Assad, Putin and Khamenei take it very seriously. After all, this is the same American president who bravely intoned “Assad must go” on August 12th, 2011, and subsequently has done virtually nothing to advance the dictator’s departure.
Are we sure that the Syrian rebel MANPADS were SA-16s captured from Base 46? Please note the references to the SA-24 Igla-S in the operators section of this link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K38_Igla#Igla-1E_.28SA-16.29. Libya, Iran, and the Syrian rebels all seem to have this weapon. Is this related to what our Ambassador and all those CIA people were doing in Benghazi last 9/11?
I am shocked that there are no responses to my question!
The best this blogger can do is to make sure that all her source info is spread too….as such, there is so much more to the Syrian morass than most understand…and the ‘Free Syrian Opposition’ are little more than Muslim Brotherhood Mafia & Al Qaeda offshoots…exchanging one Islamic devil for the other..yet there is NO doubt that the Iranian Hitler wants the Syrian butcher to come out on top…but at the end of the day, whatever happens is a horrific outcome for the US and most immediately for Israel – http://adinakutnicki.com/2012/11/29/benghazigates-stink-bombs-steadily-creeping-to-the-fore-regardless-of-the-regimes-spinmeisters-commentary-by-adina-kutnicki/
And the Libyan weapons are at the core of the illegal war entered into by the Pyromaniac-in-Chief. But make NO mistake. Had he taken care of business in Iran, in 2009, helping to free the real democracy advocates, none of this would be unfolding, at least to this exponentially lethal degree!
The Islamist-in-Chief is very pleased with his devil’s handiwork!
Michael Reagan wrote a piece for American Thinker back in October that had much the same analysis. The analysis seems to be an ongoing proxy war, not a failure to engage. You’re closer to the action than we are. Another perspective:
http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/58347
Ceteris, I think you are right. While possibly reactionary, the Canada Free Press has outlined a very plausible story about Bhengazi i.e. that it was a CIA arms acquisition station to transfer SAMs and other weapons to the FSA. There was a recent story with an unnamed intelligence “source” that outlined exactly what Michael is saying. That is we are already in a regional war with Russia and Iran over control of the middle east/Syria. It is my understanding that there are a reported 100,000 (possibly exaggerated) Republican Guards and some Russian “advisors” in Syria. The humanitarians of the UN and like do not realize that this could blow up into a major war between US/Europe and Iran/Russia/China. This could get ugly
the only light i can shine on this question is pretty feeble: everything i hear from FSA types-and-friends is that they get nothing from us.
there are lots of RGs in Syria, and plenty of Hezbollahis too. 100,000 seems overly large to me too. 10-15,000 seems more likely. but the iranians are bound a determined to save this guy. and meanwhile, they’re recruiting within the opposition, of course.
Thank you Michael for all you write. Here, and on your facebook page.
Whom would you say are the dissidents in Syria, because I don’t see too many in that regard, especially given the conclusion that Alawites, and other minorities, arrive at when it comes to their expectation of the “not so tender mercies”, they expect from the majority Sunnis. Or is it Shia that forms the majority of the population of Syria?
The whole Middle east situation going back last few years was well thought out and planned by Western powers. It’s their game plan not these little supposed homegrown ‘freedom movements’ (predominantly trained and armed in and by the western powers). If you think the whole economic implosion is accidental think again. That was also engineered in preparation for a large upcoming altercation. Prosperous young western boys and girls with nice cars, jobs and money in the bank ain’t going to march off to war you know! Take everything off them first! History repeats itself, we are just more aware now.
That is one theory. The spin-off is that Stevens was running an Iran-contra type arms deal. The Rooskies had hard evidence of that and their price for sitting on that evidence was Stevens. Bronco knew that having his very own Ollie North complete with illegal arms transfers was a sure way to lose his base. As the GOP found out the first Tuesday in November is a sure fire recipe for disaster. The theory goes that the Rooskies set up a plan to capture Stevens and grill him and if Bronco kicked up a fuss, they would drop the evidence off on FOX and ant other place they thought would use it.
The goal was to have a little ‘Chicago Leverage’ (aka blackmail) on Bronco.
No evidence yet. YET. That is why their is a stonewall going down, with Rice playing the red herring. I would be surprised if Rice was smart enough to re-charge her cell phone. Nobody is going to involve her in a conspiracy and cover up.
Nothing wuill come of it. Like Fast and Furious. Axelclod is playing Football. The GOP is playing ‘Go Fish’. Stupid Republicans havn’t even figured out what the game is yet much less produced a plan for winning it.
So ends the Republic.
“the vice of capitalism is unequal sharing of prosperity, the virtue of socialism is equal sharing of misery”
– may not last if it resorts to chemical weapons, as reported. Assad had better head to Switzerland while he can.
If the Obama justifies war based on WMD, time to rip him a new one.
Going Chem/Bio is Assad’s only chance.
Employed correctly (upwind), Chem/Bio weapons will decimate the rebels (who are mostly Sunni/Muslim Brotherhood jihadists).
Employed incorrectly (downwind), somebody (probably UN) has a mass-conflagration problem.
Obama will not send US troops to operate in a Chem/Bio environment. Too many dead GIs for Obama’s taste. Remember Obama likes “remote control” warfare. Drones and such.
What’s crazy is the Chem/Bio WMD came from Saddam Hussein. While Bush was f-ing around getting UN/US Congress
approval for OIF, Saddam was moving Chem/Bio WMD to Syria.
Chickens are coming home-to-roost.
It wasn’t a matter of f____ing around; out lead troops watched the bug-out convoys cross the border. We know precisely where Saddam’s WMD’s are buried; the question is: why hasn’t Obama taken steps to secure them? This is not going to end well.
Another question might be: the policy of the U.S. has been, since we stopped using chem/bio weapons ourselves, if we are attacked by either the response will be a nuke. Will Obama enforce this deterrence? Or might the Islamists, after they get hold of WMD’s themselves, feel that they could get away with using them on the “Great Satan”?
“The president wants to make a deal with the Iranian regime, and if we actually acted to help the Syrian opposition forces, it would enrage Supreme Leader Khamenei.”
The words contain such an eerie echo of Neville Chamberlain.
General Wesley Clark: Because I had been through the Pentagon right after 9/11.
About ten days after 9/11, I went through the Pentagon and I saw Secretary Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary Wolfowitz. I went downstairs just to say hello to some of the people on the Joint Staff who used to work for me, and one of the generals called me in. He said, “Sir, you’ve got to come in and talk to me a second.” I said, “Well, you’re too busy.” He said, “No, no.” He says, “We’ve made the decision we’re going to war with Iraq.” This was on or about the 20th of September. I said, “We’re going to war with Iraq? Why?” He said, “I don’t know.” He said, “I guess they don’t know what else to do.” So I said, “Well, did they find some information connecting Saddam to al-Qaeda?” He said, “No, no.” He says, “There’s nothing new that way. They just made the decision to go to war with Iraq.” He said, “I guess it’s like we don’t know what to do about terrorists, but we’ve got a good military and we can take down governments.” And he said, “I guess if the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem has to look like a nail.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RC1Mepk_Sw&feature=player_embedded
Yes, Wesley has such a stellar reputation as a truth teller. Notice he does not name names. You’re an asstroll.
Thing is, EVERYONE was wondering when we’d take out Saddam after 9/11. At least one foreign power was amazed we didn’t do it immediately after the anthrax attacks, and I remember a domestic commentator (Mara Liasson?) saying that if Bush didn’t start moving against Saddam before Christmas 2001, he’d lose credibility.
Don’t forget that it was US policy — codified in law! — that Saddam had to leave power in Iraq. And that law was signed by Bill Clinton…
You sheepole crack me up with your faux semi intellectual sounding words. You should have been on Montel W. show!
Great comeback there bro. Is that all you could come up with? If you can’t understand grown-up talk then take your toy soldier and go play in the park.
Even if it’s all true, so what? The logical thing to do was to go after terror–supporting governments, and Saddam certainly was that. And as an added bonus, we were already at war with him, and he was shooting at our planes.
And I thought this at the time, so don’t tell me I’m justifying post-facto.
I worked pretty well; we got Libya for free. Unfortunately the MSM undercut the President.
we never did iran, the biggest terror master. bush’s great failure of vision and resolve. he didn’t need an army to do it, as i monotonously keep saying…
First of all, it’s an honor.
The comment of course was referring to the Wesley Clark story, not your article.
I do find it a bit confusing, though. I seem to remember that at the time everyone was afraid of Iraq, especially regarding Israel. We were afraid they would get nuclear weapons. Iraq even had a terrorist training center complete with Jumbo jet; you could see it from the air. It looked like some sort of amusement park, the Devil’s own, I presume.
Were you saying this at the time?
Video or it didn’t happen.
This sentence of Mr Ledeen’s seems to be key:
“These two monumental intelligence failures are no doubt linked to bad policy impulses coming from the White House.”
We’re never made aware of any Intelligence “successes”. They simply can’t be shared. As an outsider, I can’t possibly know what the priorities are inside the Intelligence Community, what constraints they have to put up with, in how many ways their hands are tied while they rail behind closed doors at the presumed stupidity of this particular “administration”, and the emphases pushed on the Intelligence community by this particularly asinine White House.
It should be remembered that these poisonous gasses which Miss Hillary has raised her eyebrows over are no doubt some of the same WMD poisonous gas supplies which Saddam used against the Kurds, and which leftovers among other stuff were subsequently shipped over into Syria as we Americans advanced deeper into Iraq.
Much media hooplah was raised about, “OK, Bush lied, where’s all the poisonous gas WMD’s?” when they weren’t found among those endless miles of desert wasteland, but that truck traffic was spotted crossing into Syria, and was pretty quickly forgotten because it didn’t fit the perceived wisdom of those so very vocal, but who were not actually privy and sitting behind some of those closed door meetings, hence not privy to much of anything at all.
But…..this speculation, and speculation is all that it really is, is what we outsiders must put up with. Critics who have no direct hands-on responsibilities for their subject matter.
I won’t worry about Obama taking any action. He is, after all, a gutless wonder. If the Iranians let it be known that they will fire on US aircraft if the US attacks Assad Obama will make noises and do nothing. It is easy for grown-ups to take the man’s measure.
Boys on the playground would figure him out in about 5 minutes.
Only if those WMDs belong to Israel.
Obama & Co. have roughly the same “fixity of malice” against Israel as Wretchard attributes to Islamism vs. the West and Israel (see “the Three Conjectures”). WMDs in Assad’s grubby little protuberances mean exactly nothing to him, or Hillary, or any of their ilk.
Anymore than Iranian, Russian, or Chinese “presence” in Syria or the rest of the region do. In their fantasy world, the U.S. and its Evil Mini-Me, Israel, are all-powerful in the region (righhttt), and are oppressing the naturally superior, mystically-enlightened Eastern culture there by their very existence. Therefore, Russia, China, and especially Iran are a natural “counterbalance” to our (hated and hateful) hegemony.
So thinking that this administration would do anything to thwart what they see as the inevitable Mystical Eastern Triumph (Islamic states erasing Israel from the map, and drawing a bead on us next) is about as realistic as expecting Joe Biden to suddenly become lucid.
The only way they would aid the Syrian resistance would be if it suddenly was revealed that it was run by fanatical Islamists determined to unseat Assad Jr. because he wasn’t “effective enough” against the “Zionist enemy”. At that point, aid would be being airlifted to them faster than you can say “Hope and Change”.
With this administration, Israel has a sound, practical reason for not admitting publicly just how many, of what type, or even if there are any, WMDs in their inventory.
It’s to avoid providing The One with an excuse to use our WMDs on them- in the name of “multiculturalism”.
And he’d do it, too.
Rationality invariably takes a back seat to his “dreams”, every time.
clear ether
eon
Don’t forget, Assad has American friends in high places…John Kerry, Nancy Pelosi, and…. Anna Wintour! Unassailable.
We should just sit back and let them kill eachother. When they’re doing this they’re not coming after us. Look at Libya, when they were killing eachother we had 4 citizens that were still alive.
Too logical, the US will never go for it.
hello. think of the ratings for CNN if chemical bombs go off. he bought them, why not use them? if he were a good tyrant, he would have killed all his opposition by now, and got on doing what he pleased, with the country oil bought for him. why these murders drag on for so long bores me. they should have moved on to redevelopment and resupply. fighting people just keep turning up everywhere. imagine if the native Americans had recruits pouring in from South America, how much longer it would have taken to kill them off, and conquer them for their land. do not seriously pretend you are going to get the most murderous group of human beings ever assembled involved. we kill our own by execution, when we are bored. we certainly have no restraints for selling small scale strategic nuclear drones. i can get you a discount. finish your little human slaughter exercise. we are bored with you. move on to doing more business. so gay.
Vanity Fair might not do another puff piece on his wife…
“Assad and his allies in Moscow, Beijing, and Teheran”
Good news! Those also appear to be al Qaeda and Obama’s top allies against America and Israel. So it looks like this conflict can be handled peacefully, no sweat.
Naysayers who complain about Obama just don’t understand the big advantages of his presidency that show up in situations like this. The Syria reset can play out just as scripted now, whereas Romney would not play along and mess it up.
Given the general level of chaos, if Assad were smart he’d stage a false flag operation involving a “stolen” chemical shell used against civilians loyal to him. This would provide him with all the justification needed to retaliate in kind and make the U.S. look bad if it came to the aid of a group that had supposedly initiated chemical warfare.
Speaking of which, I wonder just how long it is before these jihadists actually do come across some chemical shells and send them off to their buddies Hamas for delivery to Israel.
This is exactly why we in Israel need a nuclear capability; it keeps the others from going chemical on them.
This exactly what the Canada Free Press intelligence “source” said was one of the original plans floating around the CIA operation.
I take some comfort that the media has followed Hillary in that now there are twice as many stories about Syria and chem wmd (where does anyone get sarin???)
compared to the stories about approving a plan to build some homes for Jews in Jerusalem.
Was that not Hillary’s rant the day before?
Assad is probably just moving his deterrent to the Alawite Kingdom tbd.
Obama’s policies are understandable and predictable; and assuming Obama is telling the truth, without video and documents to support what he/his administration says is naive at best.
So view Obama as a Moslem (not relevant if he is or is not, we are just trying to predict and understand Obama)
Obama is happy for the Jews to have missiles shot at their civilians, and happy to stop it when Israel is ending the terrorist ability to shoot missiles.
In 2009, Obama went to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood University to begin to bring them to power in Egypt!
When the Iranians tried to get rid of the Iranian dictators that parade as religious, did Obama lift a finger or even open his mouth to help them? No he did not!
Now, Syria like Libya, another perfectly good despotic secular despot is about to be replaced with the only thing that could be worse; kind of like Bush, where the only thing that could have been worse is Obama.
And it was under the heading: “Syrious Business”, that I delivered to every member of congress in 1991 the message: “We will have a nice long lasting war, and sell lots of weapons” (long war) c me 1991
…All because you are addicted to oil, (like a heroin addict). Like you still do not get it after 39 years. You buy their oil, they have money to buy weapons to kill you with…and you keep buying their oil…
They hate you because they believe: that your societies success means their society is doomed; so “they are at war with free speech to criticize Islime” (c me)…they believe: the western world under attack or defeated is the only way Islime can survive.
By 1984 I built a distillery and tried to get the country energy independent, you know like Brazil is now; you know all Brazilian cars come from the GM, Ford, Toyota et al assembly plants in Brazil running on Brazilian ethanol
…but you still believe, even though Brazil does it, that it cannot be done because ethanol is a BTU “thang” . I built a still and it is easy and cheap and I converted my car to ethanol only specifically to keep us out of the war we are in now…
Keep buying their oil and you will be praying to Allah real soon!
Is anybody in government demanding that all our trucks be converted to natural gas; a move that would shave 3 million barrels a day off our imports and lower unemployment by a point or two?
And most Americans still support the:” maximize: gang creation and drive by shootings act”.
Could I be wrong?
There is the chemical but also the bio
http://www.wnd.com/2007/03/40459/
It does sound strangely familiar …
G. W. Bush all over again?
Of course not. Obama’s entire work has been to further even finalise the aims/designs of the liberal – as the meaning of that word has Changed within this past half century – wing of the “Democratic” Party of the USA: To Change the nation.
His promise to fundamentally transform this country of which he “is ashamed” is in contrast to ordinary political promises intended to be carried out. Whatever it takes.
So the predecessor, as model which Obama himself has admitted publicly, must be FD. Roosevelt.
Exactly. This superb analysis explains it well. Highly recommended reading. http://www.newcriterion.com/articles.cfm/Future-tense–X–The-fourth-revolution-7395
Notice how Obama admin are only threatening to do “something”, whatever that is, only if Assad actually uses those weapons inside Syria. In other words we will attack only after the fact. No word about what happens if they are moved or prepared to be launched. No word about what happens if the Al Queda types get ahold of them or if they are loaded onto trucks for Hezbolla. No plan for securing them when Assad falls.
Those are conditions under which Israel must act. Once the SCUDs are fueled it may be too late. The pres has set them up again. There is little doubt that Israel will have to destroy the chemical stocks no matter how this turns out. Now Washington can recoil in horror at the reckless pre-emptive Israeli action which it will be forced to take. After all, we said we would take care of it just like Iran.
Already reports are that Israel intended to attack weeks ago but was denied overflight from Jordon.
Question for all. There are reports (I believe in the Isreali press) that Assad has actually matched the acetone with the sarin mix, the so called binary mating of the war heads. If the weapons are in an active stage, will bombing them destroy the sarin or allow it to escape and poison the area around the attack? Where are the NBC/EOD experts? What do you guys think?
According to a friend of mine who was Chemical Recon in the U.S. Army, mixing the components of a binary nerve agent results in it “going active”, regardless of whether the mixing is intentional or not. It’s a chemical reaction, and one that has been “tweaked” to be fairly tolerant of being in “non-laboratory” conditions when it goes off, i.e., it has to work in a wide variety of temperature and other conditions. (You can’t always expect to have perfect weather on a battlefield.)
Proportions may be “off” in such an inadvertent mix, but at the very least, the immediate vicinity of the “package” isn’t a good place to be.
Downwind of it isn’t too great, either.
cheers
eon
Perhaps there is one major thing we CAN do that would achieve many of our objectives in Syria. What would that one thing be? This may sound strange, but what about doing NOTHING? If radical Islamist Syrians and Assad-supporting Syrians slaughter each other, why is that of any real interest to us? In fact, to me it’s a win/win situation. You get to to have radical Islamists eliminated and you have Assad lose a lot of men, support, and, most of all, power and influence in the region. He can’t be a major threat to his neighbors if he’s fighting a huge civil war in his own country.
We know nothing about the “rebels” in Syria. For all we know, they could be worse radical Islamists than the Salafists in Egypt or even the Muslim Brotherhood. What we do know is that these rebels have NOT been schooled in John Stuart Mill or Alexis de Tocqueville and are not about to turn Syria into a model of Jeffersonian democracy. What we probably would get if Assad fell would be a radical Islamic state run by Sharia Law that would look more like Iran than Iraq is today. And this would help us how? Why would we want another Iran-like regime in Syria?
If anything, I would encourage the civil war in Syria to go on as long as possible. Too cold, you say? But think about it. As long as the civil war goes on, Assad is powerless outside his own country, radical Islamists are being killed, and Iran and Russia have to keep pumping endless resources into Syria to keep the Assad regime in power. It would be like draining the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, only with these rebels we don’t even have to go to the trouble of arming them. They seem to be quite capable of getting their own weapons.
And if the rebels do win, then what? Do you have some lawless country filled with radical Isalmic militias, as in Libya, or do you have a bunch of people like the Salafists in Egypt trying to create a radical Islamic state that has more in common with Hezbollah than Israel? As Henry Kissinger said about the Iran/Iraq war, “It’s too bad they both can’t lose.”
Obviously, if the war threatens our allies Israel or Turkey, we can support them with whatever they need to defend themselves. But getting involved in Syria is a lose-lose proposition and only risks widening the war to engulf us as well as Iran and Russia. This is NOT our fight. For once, let them kill each other and get so militarily weakened that the winner won’t have the strength to threaten anybody else. Remember, Spain and Franco were so weakened AFTER the Spanish Civil War was over, Franco wanted no major part in helping Hitler or Mussolini in World War II, even though Hitler and Mussolini propped up and supported Franco during the Civil War. As far as I’m concerned, the longer the war lasts in Syria, the better. And as long as the Syrians are occupied fighting amongst themselves, they can’t threaten Israel or Turkey (at least in a major way).
As for the use of chemical weapons by Assad, again, as long as it doesn’t affect his neighbors, then it really isn’t our business. The last time we got involved with an arab country using chemical weapons against its own people was in Iraq, and we never seemed to leave that country ever again. Why get sucked into this fight we have no business being in?
Also, remember that the rebels are “all-in” on this. They either win or they die. There is no middle ground in Syria. Assad won’t let there be “peace with honor.” Forget that. Either Assad dies or the rebels die, as in Libya. This is a fight to the finish and, if Assad wins, we’re no worse off than we were before the civil war started (since he hated our guts), and if the rebels win we could have a radical Islamic state that hates the Russians and the Iranians (since they supported Assad in the war against them).
So it may be that the best thing to do is just stay out of this fight. Unlike supporting the rebels in Iran, there seems to be no major benefit to us in supporting the rebels in Syria. The radical Islamists in Syria are going to do what they’re going to want to do after this is over, regardless of the help we give them (Libya is an example of that). So let them fight it out and let them decide who comes out of this thing alive.
For once I see an analysis that honest as you only can get in a forum like this one. I like very much the various comments by Libertyship46. They’re thoughtful, sharp – and, well, honest. And I should say: In our best interest.
I agree
Hey, you hooked me! Lean back and relax while I swim to your boat and jump in by myself. The sooner we quit sticking our nose into everybody internal situations and dump all the nation building crap around the world the better this nation will be in the future. Now if somebody messes with us on the high seas or lobs a missle at us or one of our legitimate allies that is a different story.
Well, in the case of the Kurds, it was a good idea. We should keep up our commitment to them; what’s left of it.
Works for me.
cheers
eon
obama was awarded a nobel peace prize. he would never start a war! (sarc)
Here’s the best single, all in one place, summation of our present suffocating Intelligence bureaucracy:
Please read it slowly and carefully. It’s from the Wall Street Journal today…..
“Politics
[image]
Bureaucratic Battle Blunted Narrative on Libya AttackA1
The intelligence summary relied on by U.N. envoy Susan Rice after the attack in Libya was the fruit of a cautious process that had the effect of watering down the U.S.’s own intelligence.”
End paste.
I’d urge all of us “outsiders” with no responsibility in this murky complexity to think carefully before we cast too many stones toward the “oxymoronic” Intelligence industry.
There are no doubt many, many “insiders” with appalling responsibilities doing very, very good work, indeed. They can’t talk.
no doubt. lots and lots of them. but we still didn’t know who was who in the Libyan uprising and we still say that we don’t know who is who in Syria today. it’s not enough to have terrific people working in the IC; they have to have serious missions.
Dear Michael, I think, most of them are a mixture of Baathists and Islamists and perhaps there are some good of them…Taliban also were good…so, America must deal cautiously with the fighters in Syria…no matter how, but in the end America crushed the most dangerous force in human history (Nazi:)
That spineless, overgrown young man as president cannot make any tyrant sleepless anywhere in the world. Obumma may be an oral genius, but contrary to the left-wing youth, Latino-voters, and bewildered women the world’s ugliest oppressors, rightly, have the gut-feeling, that they need not fear jumping jack.
Michael,
A few years ago I was clerking for a federal judge and we were talking about Bin Laden/Saddam Hussien and the like. Most in the conversation agreed that you could not negotiate with terrorist/fanatics that were determined to kill you or destroy your country etc. A young naive Harvard educated law clerk joined the conversation and took the position that we should negotiate with Bin Laden and the like and/or treat them as criminals. I was astounded to actually hear her talk-suppossedly better “educated” than I. (I was a trial lawyer before I worked for the judge). So I played a game with her. I said that I will be Bin Laden and she should be the American negotiator. All of my responses were that I will kill Americans, the great satan and etc to all of her negotiating points. She walked away flabbergasted after our little session. Quit hiring IVY LEAGUE grads to run our foreign policy. lol
You maybe want to run for PM of Israel?
Leibniz this is not acceptable, and i’ve trashed it. this blog is not available for lies and slander of me. try elsewhere, there’s plenty of bandwith.
Hope Assad has WMD.hope he uses them against the insurgency.every WMD he uses against them is one less he or the “freedom fighters”aka Muslim brotherhood can later use against Israel. Given falling birthrates in the Muslim world,anything that hastens their demographic collapse is to be encouraged
don’t be so enthusiastic about mass murder. assad may use those awful things against Israel, after all…
I’m inclined to worry more about what his successors might do with them.
Cut a deal – let him get his chemical weapons out of the country before he steps down, otherwise they MIGHT be used against the neighbours.
My hatred of Islamic fundametalism is second to none. Having said that I am fairly certain that you are neither Jewish, nor a Romani nor gay for having made such a vile statement calling for mass extermination. If you want to defeat Assad, you have to first defeat the nefarious ideology (and dollars) emanating from the Islamic Republic. Support the people of Iran, truly and convincingly, then you will never have to worry about the sattelites of evil. For once there seems to be an organized group of various expatriates working towards that end at the National Council of Iran. I would also appreciate Dr. Ledeen’s comments on that organization.
wwww.farakhanmeli.org
Of course, Syria itself – like Iraq was under Saddam – is Ba’ath, a Nazi-like ideology developed by an Orthodox Christian that replaces Aryans (*) with Arabs.
(*) Ironically, “Iran” means “land of the Aryans”. Farsi (Persian) is an indo-european language, although that would surprise many farsi-speakers.
If you think anything that you just “revealed” is a surprise for the Persian people then your knowledge of my people is at best slim and at worts none and slim just left the door
i don’t follow or work with the Iranian diaspora, Radish. so i can’t tell you anything much about the various organizations. i try to keep up with the internal opposition, which is not easy.
Perhaps it might a good time for Israel to do a little dirty work in Syria and Lebanon. Let the Mossad have a little fun at harassing the enemy. Unfortunately for Israel new regimes in the Middle East is like a box of chocolates: You never know what you’re gonna get. I tell you one thing though the oppostion to Morsi is a good sign. If regional war is at its early stages it might be prudent for the Saudis to start using some of their trillions to insure the future is in their hands not Iran’s.
The ‘enclave’ strategy is a winner for Assad. Guerillas cannot capture heavy fortifications. They do not have the military muscle for that. The best they can do is what the VC did to the French. Surround and starve. Since the Rooskies can reinforce and resupply from the sea, the Guerillas will just take up positions outside the enclave. Then they will start to fight amongst themselves.
Meanwhile, Assad builds his strength and once the rebels have splintered, he attacks.
The only way to stop this is to deal with Assad. Either buy him off or kill him.
In ’45 the Western Allies feared Hitler escaping to his “redoubt” and leading a resistance campaign. That is why Ike allowed the Russians to capture Berlin. He needed the 3rd army to get to the ‘redoubt’ before Hitler. Churchill and FDR approved because they knew how much it would cost the Russians to reduce Berlin. Soviet casualties in the battle of Berlin were greater then ALL the US casualties from WW2.
Assad’s plan has been used before in that part of the world. The Crusaders were famous for it during the Kingdom of Jerusalem period.
“We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men”
~George Orwell
“We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men”
~George Orwell
“If you want peace, prepare for war” and making war to keep peace!
Anyway, I do NOT trust most of the top officials “military and civilian officials” who have defected from Assad regime during the uprising. The hatred of Imperialism and Zionism indeed is in every cell of their bodies cells.
Personally I would like to see Mr. Ledeen and the rest of the chicken hawks pack a pistol and go fight it themselves. When do they tire of American soldiers coming home in bags or with missing body parts and all for nothing?
If you want to fight and pay for the “freedom” of middle-easterners, feel free to go do it yourself. Aren’t we here, broke enough because of your crusades?
Chicken Hawk has two of his children serving our country in the most dangerous areas of the world and I am sure said Chicken Hawk would happily pack a pistol to protect your right to call him a Chicken Hawk if he was not of the same advanced age in which I find myself in. The said Chicken Hawk has put himself in very hairy situations in his youth if you only bothered to study his background before running at the mouth.
What does Syria have to do with my freedom of speech in America? In a word; nothing! I too am a veteran. The only thing I will attribute to these crusades; is that they have corrupted this country to the bone.
So off you all go on your adventure, please remember to bring your own money and supplies, maybe you get donations, I’m the God fearing, Jesus love thy neighbor Christian Churches will be there with you.
So off you all go on your adventure, please remember to bring your own money and supplies, maybe you can get donations, I’m sure the God fearing, Jesus love thy neighbor Christian Churches will be there with you.
I should probably proof-read. Be looking for you in the paper.
Well said, Mr. Radish. As for Mr. Betsy, What kind of warrior you are? Since the beginning of the American Revolution, hundreds of thousands of American lives have been lost, not only at this time. Your ancestors have paid too many of sacrifices only to keep America’s freedoms that has became today threatened by radical Islamists and their masters of the great evil force who seeking overtaking U.S.A as Global Superpower.
In the Middle East, America has a very important vital and strategical interests which must be protected! therefore, in this ruthless international forest, if you are not the Lion you are the Lamb, so Betsy please at least stay led by a Lions so that would keep yourself and defeat your enemies! And here, Dr. Ledeen is only one of them. G-d Bless…
Re: Hillary’s quote: “I’m not going to telegraph in any specifics what we would do in the event of credible evidence that the Assad regime has resorted to using chemical weapons against their own people, but sufficing to say that we’re certainly planning to take action if that eventuality were to occur…”
Yea, but she doesn’t say anything about him using chems on “other people”…
Napolitano – Andrew Napolitano – Consent of The Governed
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWRum3cQgRE&feature=player_embedded