The Iranians have announced that “if the Supreme Leader gives the word,” the Iranian Navy will accompany future flotillas to Gaza.
You can be quite certain that the Leader is not about to give that word (and between you, me and the lamp post, I have my doubts about how quickly that order would be carried out, if at all). Ali Khamenei’s idea of war-fighting has to do with rounding up his critics, or sending Arab (not Iranian) suicide terrorists into the fray.
He’s not going to start a real fight that he’d quickly lose, thereby precipitating the fall of his regime.
What about the Turks? Daniel Jackson thinks Erdogan is serious about using the flotilla incident as causus belli and that Turkey is preparing to go to war against Israel. I am no expert on Turkey, but I am prepared to consider the possibility that the Iranians have urged him to attack, and that they swear to Allah that they’ve got his back. It would be folly to believe the mullahs, who love to gull others into doing their dirty work, but Erdogan might be dreaming crazy dreams about being the great liberator, taking back the Holy Land, and reconstituting the Empire/Caliphate.
Yes it’s crazy. But the world is full of crazies. And the United States is absent, thereby giving the crazies license to act on their nutty visions.
Iran will fight Israel to the last Hezzbollah martyr.
“taking back the Holy Land, and reconstituting the Empire/Caliphate.”
Trapped by history? Why can’t we break free from the trappings of history?
george kyaw naing at ethicminds blog
“taking back the Holy Land, and reconstituting the Empire/Caliphate.”
We should use history for peaceful purposes only. Not to incite people to more violence.
george kyaw naing at ethicminds blog
If turkey believes all the hezzy propaganda they probably think that with them hamas and the hezzys they can take israel…
stupid ppl do stupid things…
Hi,
Thanks for the nice article.
You think nobody can fight Israel with victory ? I mean let’s say Iran or Turkey would attack, you think they would certainly loose the battle ? I don’t think Turkey is poor equiped. But at least I hope Israel will achieve victory every time those stupid regimes would attack…
Erdogan has delusions of grandeur, he thinks he’s the toughest guy on the block, the mentality of a bully. As for the Iranians, they just LOVE proxies to do their dirty work until they get the bomb, then, watch out, these people are seriously crazy, these fanatics live in a delusional world, they dream of the new Islamic Conquest, like in the time of Mohammed. I’m from a Muslim country originally, seemingly Western, educated, rational people, when you get on the subject of Islam become irrational raving madmen, they have wet-dreams of conquest, of subjugating the infidels, of the triumph of Islam, domination – it’s exactly like the stereotypes of Nazi party members, SS types. Their eyes glaze over & they start reciting crap from the Qur’an & get more & more agitated as they do so.
You Westerners have NO idea what you are dealing with.
No, westerners have no idea what hate is, kids say “I hate broccoli” or whatever, NO… not even close, those that civilized society face today, have a medieval hatred, a 1400 year old festering sore, that can only be appeased with our blood, yours, mine, Jews, Christians, everyone who will not submit.
PS: God never made a brave bully… didn’t make many smart ones either.
By the way, Mr Ledeen, I’ve read reports that link the White House to the Gaza flotilla, specifically, naming Mr Brennan. The Free Gaza movement is supported by Code Pink & Bill Ayres & his wife, both close friends of Obama. Obama wants the Gaza blockade lifted, calling it ”unsustainable” & wants to legitimize Hamas.
I don’t usually give a lot of credit to conspiracy theories – it is a sad example of the lack of trust I have in the U.S. these days that I find this credible. Our gov’t. is obliged to be diplomatic, our media is generally restrained. But ordinary people here in Israel curse Obama, he is becoming as hated as Ahmadinejad or Nasrallah.
Dr. Ledeen,
I will be citing this article, as well as work by Barry Rubin and Caroline Glick, in an analysis of this mess that I hope to see soon published at Blogcritics Magazine.
Too many fools have blamed Israel and ignored the realities of politics in modern Turkey that may be driving it to a tragic war with Israel in the near future. This is not Cyprus or Crete, that the Turks can step all over us. The Turks may be brave soldiers, but this is not Anatolia, that they know the terrain to fight on it. And rousing the Lion of Judah is never a good idea.
I believe you are correct, but with one caveat-the Iranians have delusions of grandeur, particularly now with a weakened, almost comatose Washington.Therefore, the mullahs may very well convince themselves that they can match the Israeli Navy & their other ‘surprises’.
We know better….
The british atheic philosopher “Richard Dawkins” in his treatese “The God Delusion” writes: If one person has delusions, we may talk of schizophreny. But if a community of people has delusions, we may talk of religion. And so all the islam has delusions.
So if Erdogan effendi and his iranian Allah’Mullah, feel one day the temptation to start a military confrontation with Irael, they should be convinced that their Allah would not give a dam to help them, even if they shout for years “Allahu Akbar” Since that would be their “Apocalytic End” both.
What if the unthinkable were to happen… Israel is attacked, then refuses any part of a UN ceasefire? Takes all the fun out of killing Jews.
“But if a community of people has delusions, we may talk of religion”
Richard Dawkins point was it is OK to not believe in ANY religion, not a particular one.
Fundamentalists on all sides seek war, look forward too and actively seek “the end of days”, Armageddon, whatever you wish to call it. On these threads people are openly calling for Israel to strike out at all Nations in one last ditch effort, its quite pitiful to read.
When people are paranoid, convinced their opinion and belief trumps all others, that god has selected them as the liberators of all others, that their actions are holy and blessed no matter what they are….its time to leave the paranoid masses to their own ends.
its time to leave the paranoid masses to their own ends.
—
Once again, alex manages to unintentionally hilarious.
“Has Iran made promises to Turkey?”
What, a carrot of military support backed-up by a nuclear stick? I don’t know much about Turkey – here’s a wild guess:
In this column you’d noted earlier that Turkey feels the heat of Iran’s continuing nuclear development. Add to that the fact that the US Government is behaving disrespectfully if not antagonistically towards Ankara – who knows what “promises” would work. Apparently, Turkey doesn’t feel confident that NATO membership is enough to protect them from either Russia or Iran. Greece next door on the other end is destabilizing … so war with Israel isn’t going to stabilize anything or make them richer or reinforce either their eastern or western border.
… while our “leaders” drag-in pop singers to fill idle time.
Iran tricked the US military into attacking Iraq and removing Saddam without spilling a drop of blood and making billions in profit…how hard would it be to trick Turkey to attack Israel…?
Its the great game, has been going on for centuries. Israel is just another piece on the board.
It’s well known that Turkey and Iran want to be the dominant country in region.
Is it possible that Iran is sandbagging Turkey?
That is, Iran has no intention of sending naval ships, but they are putting pressure on Turkey to send their ships, before Iran does.
A number of months ago, 60 Minutes interviewed Bartholomew, the Ecumenical Patriarch of Orthodox Christians. When combined with the interview he gave to Charlie Rose, and the interview by Michael Coren of “Sam” a former Islamic Scholar, and Bat Ye’or, cause
to give Erdogan the benefit of the doubt is as far as a horse galloping out of a barn.
There are details that Erdogan’s AKP party was bankrolled
by Khamenei, et al., so the escalating situation could be a quid pro quo.
Whoops…love reading you, but feel compelled to let you know that it’s casus belli. You could, if you want, say causa belli.
tks aez, i keep making that mistake, and i’m grateful to you for catching it. casis, casis,casis…
Michael you have some of the smartest readers and commentators on the web.
With regard to rose of dc, helen thomas, it has now been proven beyond any doubt that:
YOU CAN PUT LIPSTICK ON A PIG.
Stay well, Michael
Mr. Ledeen: I am from Iran and no I am no fan of the brutal Iranian gobut you just vernment. but you just mentioned that you do not much about Turkey. you are very correct. you do not. Iran is far more important to Turkey than Israel is.after Germany Turkey is their biggest trade partner and 25% of Iranian are turks who speak turkish. insted you should lay the balme on the Israelis who excuted 5 Turkish citizens point blank. they just lost the most important Muslim ally they had. By the way I hate Islam. Islam. what I admire about you in this article is you acknowledge what you do not know and that is very honorable. Last time you and I had a conversation you had mention that you have PHD from university of Wisconsin. However pleae let me tell you something you do not. your ability to write fiction! it is awsome! I am a very senoir executive in entertainment buissines( and yes we are all not terrorists, Jihadist or Islamist! Surprise! I now quite a few agent, publishers and movie and TV producers. Please let me know if you are intrested. I will get you an agent, publish your novel, and go to the big screen afterwards. and from what I can see the fictions you are wring is good for up to 10 year boys. May be twelve! I magine the money that is to be made in Licesing fees, firign and domestic distribution!! I will then put the movie on DVD as well as Blue Ray and get an exclusive from Walmart!! there is a lot of money to be made here!! I keep 25% and you 75%. Please let me know if you are intrested. I look forward to hearing from you.
Best
I worry that we underestimate the potential of war breaking out. No one ever thinks a war is going to happen until it is right on the brink of happening. People keep saying the Turks won’t take the final step, the Iranians won’t, the Syrians won’t… they all have too much to lose. That’s our calculation, not necessarily theirs.
Perhaps Tehrans guests in Savzevar may also board the next expedition. That’s if they haven’t already been exchanged for in a grand bargain.
Very plausible theory. Everyone has forgotten about Turkey since the first World War. Since it seems that they will never get into the EU now, they will do what it takes to be back on the world stage, just like Iran. The Ottomans and the Persians. All over again.
“I am no expert on Turkey”
Ain’t that the truth. Apparently you don’t even know that Turkey is protected by the “one in, all in” provisions of the NATO Charter.
The Turks can send another aid flotilla to Gaza, and this time it can certainly point to a need to protect that flotilla with an armed escort; after all, there are pirates about…..
If such a flotilla is then attacked by Israel – and it will be Israel that attacks – then Israel’s usual “I’m only attacking Turkey in self-defence!” is easily trumped by Turkey’s invoking of Article 5 of the NATO Charter.
You have no idea what the stakes are, do you?
The USA will then have to choose between backing Israel (therefore trashing NATO) or backing Turkey (therefore trashing its “special relationship” with Israel).
The USA will want to do neither, and its easiest way to avoid that nightmare is to tell Netanyahu to end the blockade before those ships set sail.
Israel needs to back down, NOW.
Israel needs to apologize, NOW.
Israel needs to end that siege, NOW.
If it doesn’t then it risks become a **massive** burden to the USA, because its intransigence will put at risk a military alliance that is vastly more important to the USA than dinky little Israel can ever hope to be.
You can’t see that?
Man, talk about wearing blinkers…..
OK so anyone thinking that Turkey sending warships to attempt to break a formally declared military blockade would require NATO protection really should not take up a career in international law or politics. Or anything else requiring critical thinking.
I think it more likely that the Turks will use political cover by sending officials or a non-military ship, along with the flotilla in order to be further outraged when they are detained.
But it may be that the big moment has passed. The PR has probably gone as far as it can and Israel, although bloodied, has gotten in some very good punches of her own. Check the latest Reuters fauxtography episode at LGF for example (what guy holding the bloody knife? Oh that guy standing on top of the bloody soldier? We cropped that out because he is a peace activist).
People tire of news quickly these days and they will need to up the ante to get anyone to pay attention to the sequel.
The Hamsnicks have their own problem now so long as Israel holds up its line in the sea. They cant pull off another suprise like last time. If they use more lethal means they lose the whole “help help i’m being oppressed!” argument, if they dont the Israelis will just keep towing them into Ashdod like the Corrie.
I dont think the Euro governments are too impressed by Erdogan’s antics lately either. They certainly arent going to support the Turkish Navy sailing off to confront the IDF.
Funny I just remembered that on my last flight from Israel on El Al I noticed that the kosher breakfast food mostly came from Turkey.
Spindok
Wrong in the first line: “OK so anyone thinking that Turkey sending warships to attempt to break a formally declared military blockade would require NATO protection really should not take up a career in international law or politics.”
Turkey will not “require NATO protection” to escort their aid convoy. They will provide their own protection, thank you very much.
It is when that convoy is attacked – and ONLY when that convoy is attacked – that Turkey will be able to invoke Article 5 and 6 of the NATO Charter.
Go read it, and then you tell me how an attack BY Israel ON Turkish ships IN the Med is not covered by those two articles of the Charter. Because it most definitely is – it is explicitely stated in Article 6 that such a situation is covered by the treaty – and so all member states of NATO are ***obligated*** by their signature on that treaty to come to Turkey’s aid.
Again, you can’t see that? Man, that really is ignorance writ large.
“a formally declared military blockade”
Turkey does not care if Netanyahu is wearing a tuxedo and spats when Israel “declares a military blockade” because Turkey does not and will not recognize the LEGITIMACY of that blockade.
There are two situations where a “formally declared military blockade” is legal:
1) When there is an “armed conflict at sea”
2) When the UNSC passes a Chpt VII resolution authorizing such a blockade.
Israel can point to neither, and so Israel has no legal standing to instigate any naval blockade, reagardless of how “formally” they declare it.
#23 Johnboy: Mr. Ledden already acknowledged that he does not know much about Turkey
Pleae read my posting from yesterday #19 and you will see I am talking aboiut
My offer is still on table
So of course I’m going to Istanbul next week (a trip I had planned and paid for months ago). I do not think the majority of Turks want this. Sadly we are seeing a replay, on many levels, of 30 years ago. A weak US president allows a westernized Middle Eastern ally to fall into the hands of Islamists and become a theological-fascistic dictatorship that threatens us and the region.
Oh well, at least I’ll eat good and visit the synagogues…
…which were and still are terrorist targets.
Dear Michael, I as a dissident Muslim, I believe that the Muslims NOT CONVINCED with the existence of State of Israel!!! The Moslems do NOT WANT peaceful coexistence with the USA or with Israel as Mr. Obama attempting to establish new relationships of peaceful coexistence blindly with evil regimes in Muslim world on the account of America’s dignity and Greatness, because, in general the Muslims extremely despise your values and your life style. Today you can see the folly of moderate Muslim toward Israel, the prime minister of Turkey, Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan.” Mr. Erdogan is a culprit and every one who supports to break the Israeli-Egyptian lawful blockade on Gaza Strip is a culprit and a criminal as well. No doubt that Mr. Erdogan is like your president, Mr. Obama and his sort. Both are TERRORISTS, but in other flavor and color!!?? where both are SYMPATHETIC surprisingly to the evil regimes and to the terrorist ISSlamists, to those who every single day murder you in the Middle East and at home, those who calling continuously to destruct the United States of America and to wipe Israel off the map.
No doubt your President hates you “Americans” and despises the USA Greatness. I think that Obama’s Socialist Administration also is forming the biggest threat on the US National Security and on the USA Greatness after the evil regimes. At present, unfortunately, you could see this blind coward administration attempting to eliminate certain words and phrases from American policy documents and statements are concerning ISSlam such as ignoring the connection between ISSlam and terrorism and abandoning of the war on terrorism. I STRONGLY AND DEEPLY believe that Mr. President Obama NOT convinced enough in the existence of State of Israel and NOT convinced quite in the USA Imperialism as well.
However, in the matter of flotilla! Israel just exercised her legitimate right of self defense. Israel has every right to keep Iran and other enemies from supplying rockets, mortar shells and other weapons to the terrorist organizations such as “Hamas, Jihad, Al Aqsa, Hezbollah and Fatah Arafat.” The common denominator and the higher objective among all that terrorist organizations is “annihilation of Israel.” All organizations above are a proxys for the Iranian regime that every single day call to destruct the USA and to wipe Israel off the face of earth and the map. All know about animosity between Iran and its regional foe “Israel”, where Ahmadinejad repeatedly boasts that Iran has missiles capable of reaching any target in Israel and even in the heart of the USA from the territories of their Latino allies. Moreover, perhaps in this case the Iran regime willing to send in its ships those Arabs who extremely eager to death or so-called “martyrdom”.
Dear Michael, yes, Mr. Erdogan is very serious about using the flotilla incident and there can be little doubt the Turkish flotilla that challenged the Israeli-Egyptian blockade of Gaza was organized with his approval in person. No doubt these ships were also financed by a Turkish charity that belongs to a Saudi umbrella organization linked by the U.S. Treasury Department to terrorism. Mr. Yassin Abdullah Al-Qadi, is a Saudi multimillionaire businessman, who was subjected to economic sanctions because he is suspected of ties to terrorism. Al-Qadi was officially declared a terrorist financier in October 2001 as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist”. Al-Qadi was named in United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1267 and 1333. The European Union has also applied sanctions to Al-Qadi. He headed the Muwafaq Foundation (Blessed Relief), a Saudi-based charity organization has ties to Islamist militant groups. He has sent MILLIONS of dollars to Al-Qaeda and to offices of Hamas based in the USA. Mr. Yassin Al-Qadi has ties to sons of Osama bin Laden, and to Abdullah Saleh Kamel, the son of Sheikh Saleh Abdullah Kamel, who is a multi-billionaire Saudi and the chairman and founder of the Dallah al Baraka Group (DBG), where (DBG) is the 3rd largest commercial entity in Saudi Arabia. Sheikh Saleh Abdullah Kamel is of also the chairman of the General Council for Islamic Banks. The billionaire chairs Dallah Al Baraka, banking and Media Empire as well. Mr. Yassin Al-Qadi and Sheikh Saleh Kamel both are heavily involved in promoting radical Islam. They are JUST two of many Saudi multimillionaires and millionaires whom sponsors and sympathetic to Al-Qaeda and to terrorist ISSlamists through blessed relief via Saudi charity organizations. In fact, Mr. Al-Qadi is CLOSE FRIEND to the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and that through his friendship with highly placed Turks, Al-Qadi had been able to escape sanctions while living now in Turkey.
However, the Iranian Red Crescent has decided to send two aid ships to Gaza this week in the latest bid to break the Israeli-Egyptian blockade of Gaza. The decision to send the two ships comes on the heels of a report that Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards had expressed readiness to escort and providing military escort to cargo ships flotillas to Gaza, where Khamenei’s representative inside the Revolutionary Guards and his aide in the Guards’ naval wing, Mr. Ali Shirazi who told the Mehr news agency on Sunday where Mr. Shirazi has announced: “Iran’s navy forces are ready to escort the peace flotilla to Gaza with all their powers and capabilities, it is Iran’s duty to defend the innocent people of Gaza.”
The report came just a day after the Turkish madman PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan was reportedly considering personally joining a flotilla to Gaza and offering the support of the Turkish Navy to protect such flotillas from Israeli inspections. Reportedly all ships will be under an Iranian flag.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards trying to break the Israeli-Egyptian blockade on Gaza. of course this kind of silly intervention by the Iranian military would be considered highly provocative by Israel, because it will form real threat on Israeli National Security, in other words, it would be tantamount to a declaration of war on Israel.
On the other hand, on Monday at a regional summit, the Muslim leaders rallied round Turkey, backing their host’s call for Israel to end its blockade of Gaza immediately and face international punishment for its deadly raid on an aid ship.
Turkey’s PM Mr. Tayyip Erdogan told a joint news conference with Syria’s President Mr. Bashar al-Assad, said “the time has come to lift the embargo on Gaza”. Mr. Erdogan said: “Israel has to pay the bill for the blood that has been shed by the martyrs”
The Syrian leader pledged to support Turkey in action and words in its campaign for an end to the blockade, said: “I would like to say Turkish blood is not different from Arab blood,” also he said: “Our blood is one, and this combination will eliminate the blockade of Gaza.” Ditto, Turkey has received messages from support from other Muslim countries, including Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Pakistan, and Qatar and, of course, Palestinian leader Mr. Mahmoud Abbas.
Most obviously, that Mr. Erdogan has become a folk hero in the Middle East even in Muslim world for his attacks and hate on Israel. Yes, Mr. Erdogan might be dreaming crazy dreams about being the great liberator-madmen, is most probably digging his own grave by his hands. Indeed, Turkey today is trying to establish itself as the Mideast’s leading Muslim power, and expand its hegemony in the Middle East. And that Turkish Prime Minister, Mr. Erdogan and his party nowadays are trading on America and Israel hatred. So I call to stopping all sales and assistance to the Turkish government and to prevent Turkey from joining the EU.
Finally, I would like to tell, Mr. Erdogan, the support of terrorist organization such as Hamas and its aims is NOT the humanitarian path to peace. This kind of illegal support would enables and increases continued violence and conflict in the region. Therefore, STOP support terrorism and please support the most democratic country and freest and justice in the terrible Mideast, the smart State “Israel State”. And just remember that “all ships whether if from Turkey and Iran or from other country – which will be sending to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza – will drown in the sea like puppies!!!”
I hope that the USA does not abandon Israel at the mercy of those mad leaders in Muslim world.
May God bless the USA Greatness and bless the Jewish Homeland “Israeli State”.
Jassem Othman, was/Syrian, the land of Holocaust, Poland.
Jassem: yo dude where are from? you must have been raised in a sh….hole
sh…hole or a couple of Imams had you on their lap when you were 9 years
9 years old…like the catholic priests do.
I am a muslim, live in the states and I want peace..
A point to note is Israel has pre-positioned deposits of (US) military supplies co-owned by them. The supplies are there to supply the US forces in the region and to be used in case of need by Israel.
So, an escalation with Turkey would not be an easy walk for Israel, but it would not be easy for Turkey also.
Escalation would put at risk foreign investments in Turkey and would force Europe to reconsider the station of Turkey in NATO.
Turkey would not be able to call for help from NATO, not if they try to force a naval blokade to Gaza. Forcing Israel’s blokade to Gaza is an act of war against Israel.
I don’t think they would be able to find anyone willing to help them. And they will have problem finding someone will not drop them like crap.
Now, how a war between Israel and Turkey could happen?
Do they move their tanks in Syria and try to invade from there?
Do they move their ship and attack the Israel from the sea?
Do they use their Air Force to attack Israel?
Do you think the Turkey government is able to trust their Armed Forces as Israel?
Or the Armed Forces will stage some coup against the government in case of conflict with Israel?
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