The Iranians have announced that “if the Supreme Leader gives the word,” the Iranian Navy will accompany future flotillas to Gaza.
You can be quite certain that the Leader is not about to give that word (and between you, me and the lamp post, I have my doubts about how quickly that order would be carried out, if at all). Ali Khamenei’s idea of war-fighting has to do with rounding up his critics, or sending Arab (not Iranian) suicide terrorists into the fray.
He’s not going to start a real fight that he’d quickly lose, thereby precipitating the fall of his regime.
What about the Turks? Daniel Jackson thinks Erdogan is serious about using the flotilla incident as causus belli and that Turkey is preparing to go to war against Israel. I am no expert on Turkey, but I am prepared to consider the possibility that the Iranians have urged him to attack, and that they swear to Allah that they’ve got his back. It would be folly to believe the mullahs, who love to gull others into doing their dirty work, but Erdogan might be dreaming crazy dreams about being the great liberator, taking back the Holy Land, and reconstituting the Empire/Caliphate.
Yes it’s crazy. But the world is full of crazies. And the United States is absent, thereby giving the crazies license to act on their nutty visions.