In the Future Will Everyone Really ‘Have To Become an Entrepreneur’?
Over at Forbes.com, Paul B. Brown explains “Why Everyone Will Have To Become An Entrepreneur”:
Think back 20 years. On a random Saturday morning, you slip on your American made polo shirt, and made in the U.S.A. blue jeans, and while walking downtown you wonder if that new hot CD you want—the one that has been sold out forever—is finally available. Spotting a pay phone, you get the number for a record store you know is near by. Yes, they have a copy they will put aside for you, if you can get there within the hour. Not quite certain where the store is, you pull out a map and double check.
As you think about this scenario, and countless others you could imagine, you realize that it’s easier to list the tiny handful of professions and industries that will remain unchanged in the next 20 years than it is to write down the ones that will be altered—radically. And all that upheaval is likely to throw you—and anyone else who is not prepared—out of a job.
I’m old enough for Brown’s time-machine scenario to ring all kinds of (rotary dial) bells.
(I’d add that, because it’s Saturday morning, the banks aren’t open, and ATMs don’t exist, so the money in your wallet is what you’re stuck with until 10 a.m. Monday.)
(On the plus side, you can still smoke in your neighborhood bar…)
To Brown’s larger point — about all encompassing obsolescence — I was just chatting to a professional journalist who remarked, matter of factly, that newspapers will cease to exist in ten years, tops. (Lucky for him, he’s in broadcasting.)
I feel the same way about the postal service.
Then again, I grew up in a steel town, and heard all my life that the factories would be closing down any year now.
Or taken over by the Japanese.
That was almost fifty years ago. Those factories are still smoking, and Canadian owned.
Those trendy Japanese manufacturing and managerial tricks they tried out in the 1970s are long forgotten.
Sure, I’m already an entrepreneur, and know all the beautifully patina-ed koans: “Nobody ever got rich working for somebody else” and so forth.
But I’m a contrarian, too. In this glorious sole-proprietorship future, won’t somebody still have to wear the name tags?
Are we planning for an era that — just like 99% of those “flying car” “futures” of the past — won’t ever materialize?
Our country was started by entrepreneurs, independents with their own dreams and determination to make them succeed. It was more efficient.
Now we have large corporations, shielded by bureaucracy, touting jobs as our savior, only to get more control over opportunities.
Here’s what I mean: http://www.roberttanguay.com/los-angeles/complaint/
Maybe it won’t ever materialize fully, but the real money will increasingly be found only with the entrepreneurs. There may be a profession that won’t be outsourced, computerized or incorporated into a bigger entity, but I’m hard-pressed to think of one right now.
I know at least one or two of my three kids are interested in maintaining the lifestyle to which they’ve become accustomed, but I’m unable to give them any advice in that regard. The predictable pathways to the upper middle class (accountant, doctor, lawyer, etc.) will not lead there in the future. Being smart and working hard are no longer guarantees of success- at least not the kind of success I’ve had.
The one thing I do know is that in the future, even more so than today, it’s going to be important to be the captain of one’s own ship. Outside of upper-level management and finance, if they’re employed by anyone else, they’re going to be moderately well-compensated wage slaves. Unfortunately, they’re all interested in the sciences. Too bad for them.
Will everyone be forced to be an entrepreneur? I don’t know. I do believe that the world has shifted beneath our feet. I cannot predict the future.
I know that I thank God these massive changes happened later in my life than earlier, that is, after I was in a place where I had assets and networks to lean on, and after I had mastered my profession.
I have no idea how I would learn my profession now if I were just starting out. I have no idea how I could plan a future. I have NO advice to give my nieces and nephews. I don’t know if, as Kathy suggests, that things will be much like they are, but different, that is, the changes are overblown, or if automation/technology has so fundamentally changed the rules that workers themselves are obsolete.
I wish I could see it. But I’m flying blind.
I’m totally with you on this.
The best piece of advice I can come up with for my kids right now is not to go into debt. Luckily, they will have no educational debt. The future will require everyone to be light on their feet.
Successful entrepreneurship requires a particular personality type, possessed by maybe 3 percent of the population.
This is important to understand. I read a similar analysis the other day that included how we will be so much better off than the generation which had to rely on those manufacturing jobs. Those workers hated their boring jobs.
Having tried sales because I “wanted to work with people”, I know that it takes a special set of skills/talents for many professions.
Not everyone can be a successful salesman. Not everyone can be a successful entrepreneur.
I may hate my job but I sure love that paycheck!
About the same proportion of leaders. Very few are natural leaders; very few are natural innovators. And still less can put their talents to work. The pool of trained and experienced talent is thin.
Everybody already is their own independant business. They are just not used to thinking of it that way.
If you have a job working for a company your business just has one client right now. The important thing is to realize that could change at any time. You could find a better opportunity or the company may no longer need you. Everyone should always be looking ahead in today’s market.
see also Tom Peters, “The Brand Called You”, 1997.
Forbes cutting edge business news once again.
Entrepeneurship is “the answer” to today’s middle-class meltdown, but sadly it is not for everybody. It is also the historical answer to America’s major economic problems, but is suffering today from overregulation – and other secular effects.
That said, the Forbes column isn’t even ABOUT entrepreneurship, just some word salad about riding the waves of change, moving your cheese, not getting stuck in the mud, yada yada.
This is why I agreed to send my daughter to a theater conservatory instead of college (cheaper and only 2 years at the longest, and she can live at home). We agreed that if there are no longer any “safe” career paths and she must roll the dice, might as well roll ‘em on something she loves. No one will incur any debt, and she also has a couple of debt-free Plans B.
My son, now he’s another matter entirely…
With the increasing regulations, I think a better question is “In the future will anyone be allowed to be an Entrepreneur?”
The idea that anyone can be an entrepreneur is silly. I am one and I’ve been one repeatedly. It’s very hard to make money this way.
“the good news about working for yourself is you only have to work half-time, if you feel like it. the other 12 hours a day you can do whatever you like!”
In the USA it’s all but impossible.
Has Puerto Rico found the sweet spot?
Maybe they have – for the time being – but the federal government can take it all away at any instant.
We are no longer living under anything resembling the Constitutional government envisioned by our Founders.
“I’d add that, because it’s Saturday morning, the banks aren’t open, and ATMs don’t exist, so the money in your wallet is what you’re stuck with until 10 a.m. Monday.”
Twenty years ago was 1992. I got my first bank account with an ATM card in 1983, and they were ubiquitous where I lived during the 70′s. In the early 90′s TDMA mobile phones were widespread, and GSM was on the horizon. Admittedly, that was the UK, so it might not have been as technologically backward as Canada.
But the point still stands: we’ve come a long way…
I’m a stationary engineer- can’t outsource boiler operation and repair. The pay is good- the hours suck. Which is why- the pay is good.
Also do part time sales for a big box. Love sales. If I weere commissioned, I’d make considerably more. But that field will die- 8 of 10 customers come in with printouts of what they want. My job usually consists of convincing them to BUY IT HERE rather then sell them something. I see appliance manufactureres eventually opening up their own showrooms with direct ship to the customer, bypassing the middleman. Very few appliances are actually sold from the store and carried out- and the majority are the really cheap ones. People who want the really cheap machines aren’t willing to wait.
There will be a place for local retail rather as an alternative to internet sales. For people who need something NOW and cannot wait, and are willing to pay a premium for having it NOW.
Auto manufacturers will eventually work around their dealer network- but they’re so entangled in old binding contracts it will be difficult.
Finding a profession that will remain a career for 20 or more years will be difficult. TV repairman was a big job in 1960, travelling to houses, adjusting sets- and a non-existent profession today. Tellers? Once a skilled job- replaced, for the most part, by ATM’s, and now a low skill near minimum wage job. Same with cashiers- you don’t need to memorize prices- and anyone can scan a UPC.