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Rubin Reports

Kerry Runs Around in Rings

July 19th, 2013 - 7:50 pm

Update: In other words, don’t believe the Palestinian denials they are  going to talk, believe Kerru’s claim to the contrary! How absurd. They just don’t get it and won’t take ‘no’ for an answer because Kerry knows better for Israelis and Palestinians than their leaders do. When will his credibility crack: He has nothing. Meanwhile, while these games are going on there is no  U.S. policy on Egypt or Syria!

Secretary of State John Kerry announced officially the restart of negotiations and–as I predicted–neither the Palestinians nor Israel had actually agreed! What an embarrassment! This is the foreign policy of the United States, people, not tbe yacht races, people. This makes America look ridiculous and not credible, isn’t that clear?  

Once again a lot of people think that Secretary of State John Kerry is on the verge of making a breakthrough toward peace. The problem is that these people believe that the contenders were born yesterday, that they have no constraints whatsoever.

The Palestinian Authority (PA) has no intention of making peace. It only wants to get concessions and blame Israel for an absence of peace. It knows that the Obama Administration will never punish it if it balks but probably will only offer it more.

The PA doesn’t want to make peace since any actual concessions will make it appear to be a traitor and will bring a counter-offensive from Hamas. Since it doesn’t even represent the territory it claims—it has no power over the Gaza Strip and has no prospect of getting any—the PA cannot make any binding commitment at all. And it is watching as the battle for Syria is going on next door. That would give it a radical neighbor—the United States is supporting it—which will deem a peace agreement as null and void.

Every PA negotiator knows well that he isn’t supposed to succeed. It is only Kerry who doesn’t know this.

As for Israel, the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu knows that it cannot depend on the United States. For example, the key issue is supposedly the precondition of what the borders will be. Now think this one through:

The PA demands and must demand that the 1967 lines would be the state borders. BUT the United States on two occasions, in the George Bush administration and in later 2010—told Israel that it could keep “settlement blocs,” that is large settlements along the borders. It is thus impossible that Netanyahu would agree to accept the loss of that U.S. commitment.

Why should he not get something for nothing, show that the president’s past commitment was worthless, and simultaneously know that any time the PA wants more that Obama will give it to them?

And of course his coalition—even his own party—won’t agree. Does Israel so desperately need “peace” that it must be purchased at its reduced security?

Meanwhile what is the United States doing for Israel on Egypt (still refusing recognizing the military regime in Egypt), Lebanon (not keeping the 2006 commitment to combat Hizballah); Syria (pushing weapons on Islamists which Israel will have to confront in future); the Gaza Strip (having no policy to bring down Hamas); Iran (no serious plan for denying nuclear weapons), and Turkey (letting Ankara ignore the supposed détente even though it was promised by Obama himself)?

And that’s not even mentioning the demand for millions of Palestinian Arabs to “return” to Israel or Jerusalem?

There is nothing for Israel in this except the promise of peace, which will evaporate as ever single Obama promise has also done.

So the point is this:

The PA will keep doing stalling tactics and come up with new preconditions that it hopes Israel will not meet.

Israel will keep giving minor concessions and engaging in stalling tactics to hope that Kerry finds something useful to do.

Kerry will keep rotating between shuttle diplomacy and his yacht until the media has tired of this game. Kerry will keep rotating between shuttle diplomacy and his yacht until the media has tired of this game. The Ring of Kerry in Ireland is one of the most beautiful places in the world. Now the Middle East has its own.

All leaks, spins, false claims, and ploys will go nowhere.

Advice: Don’t read about the latest double-talk and impending supposed breakthroughs in the media. Look at underlying interests; not imaginative headlines.

The Ring of Kerry is one of the most beautiful spots in Ireland. Now the Middle East has a place were Kerry is going  around in rings.

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All Comments   (5)
All Comments   (5)
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Rubin does not grasp the fact that since the dreaded George Bush was replaced by the multiculturally hip Barrack Obama, no one in the Middle East hates us anymore.

The golden age ushered in by Obama and the subsequent elimination of tensions and violence across the region makes this the perfect time to pressure the Israelis to do the right thing and make significant concessions. Clearly, Secretary Kerry shares this same enlightened view which is why he should remain on his yacht forever and never, ever go near any foreign policy issue.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
This is an excellent post by Barry Rubin. Perhaps Barry Rubin has answered this elsewhere but what I cannot understand is

(1) Why is the Obama administration and Kerry putting the so called peace process at the very top of their diplomatic initiatives?

(2) Why is the Obama administration so completely inconsistent in dealing with the other much more urgent problems with the other countries in the region? That inconsistency is discussed by Barry Rubin in this very article. But why is the administration so blind to its own inconsistencies? Is it a kind of irrational fetish (as the entire world has and has had a fetish with all things Jewish, for good or for bad).
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
Yup, it is an 'Emperor's New Clothes' situation with the courtiers writing about invisible breakthroughs.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
Palestinians will never recognize Israel. Never. There is no "peace process" and Johnny Ketchup is a fool trying to put some shine over a failed administration.

The only reason Palestinians are "negotiating" is because the MB has fallen in Egypt and they know the army are going to hunt Hamas jihadists who kill tourists and blow up pipelines.

They are stalling, hoping for some funding.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
This was written in 2007. Today it is as valid as then:

Why are otherwise reasonable Western liberal politicians incapable of learning from previous mistakes?

1) Because there is no accountability.

2) Because they think they understand the problem, and they do not.

If all the authors of previous failed peace plans would have been held accountable for their schemes and fined for their failure, with the penalty doubling with every succeeding flop, they would think seriously before coming up with the next bright idea. Oslo I, Oslo II, Taba, Wye, Tenet, Mitchell, Zinni, Sharm El-Sheikh, Roadmap - how long will this farce go on? If politicians are not held responsible for their unrealistic plans, then it will go on until all of us are no more. Enough!
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
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