Israel prepares for a "massive Iran payback" following Tuesday's missile barrage, and you should prepare to pay at the pump — but for how long? That depends on how serious Israel is about crippling Iran, and the signals Israeli officials sent Axios last night are a bit mixed.
While all options are on the table, Israeli officials indicated that its first targets would be Iran's oil facilities, air defense systems, and targeted assassinations. Iran's nuclear program will reportedly remain safe unless Iran attacks again.
"We have a big question mark about how the Iranians are going to respond to an attack, but we take into consideration the possibility that they would go all in, which will be a whole different ball game," an Israeli official told Axios.
Also according to the report, Israel "wants to coordinate its plans with the U.S. because of the strategic implications of the situation."
None of this makes much sense to me. Neutering Iran's nuclear program ought to come immediately after the mullahs' air defense systems. Consultations with the leaky Biden White House ought to be kept curt and free of details.
When I read this morning that oil traders see "a genuine threat to crude supplies," I could only marvel at the British level of understatement. “The Middle East conflict may finally impact oil supply,” senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic told CNBC. “The scope for a material disruption to oil supply is now imminent.”
To give you an idea of how vulnerable Iran's oil exports are, 95% of them get loaded onto tankers at one location.
95% of Iran's 🇮🇷 oil export is through the tiny Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf. Here's a nice “Before” photo of it 👇
— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) October 1, 2024
“After” photo coming soon. pic.twitter.com/biUGM5LeP2
Brent crude prices jumped 5% after Tuesday's missile attack.
Just as bad, Iran has just 10 refineries for domestic production of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), gasoline, kerosene, fuel oil, and lubricants. Oddly enough, Iran is a net importer of gasoline and needs hard currency to buy enough. Without those distillates, a modern economy grinds to a halt.
The point is that if Israel wants to shut down Iran's foreign moneymaker, it can do so with relative ease. If it wants to go further and shut down Iran's domestic economy, it can do that, too, with a bit more effort.
China, despite buying 91% (!!!) of Iran's oil exports, remains officially mum. That's up from just 26% in 2017, so if you were wondering what keeps the mullahs' regime awash in cash, it's Communist China. If an Israeli strike on Kharg sends Beijing scrambling to replace its Iranian imports, prices will spike worldwide.
Whatever backchannel talks might be going on between Beijing and Jerusalem haven't leaked because neither Xi Jinping nor Bibi Netanyahu is Joe Biden or Kamala Harris.
It's within Israel's power to do anything from putting a crimp in Tehran's finances to (at least temporarily) sending the country's entire economy back to the pre-industrial era. It's the difference between causing some pain and going Full Old Testament on the murderous mullahs — and if Israel leaves Iran's nuclear program intact, it might never get another chance like this one.
As the only country under direct attack from Iran, the decision ought to rest solely in Israel's hands — Washington and Beijing be damned.
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