It's been a helluva thing watching a much smaller country like Ukraine, already at war with Russia, achieve total surprise with its counter-invasion near the historic city of Kursk — and, so far, get away with it. But the question that still bothers me after nearly two weeks is: why?
What's the point?
First, a quick update on the fighting.
What I've come to call "the Kursk Surprise" continued over the weekend in the same way it was going when I wrote about it last week. "Ukrainian forces continued assaults throughout their salient in Kursk Oblast," ISW reported Sunday night, "and marginally advanced southeast of Sudzha."
Ukrainian warblogger Tatarigami wrote that "the operation also highlights a stark contrast: Ukraine's surgical strikes on moving Russian columns with HIMARS versus Russia's deliberate and methodical destruction of Ukrainian settlements with artillery, MLRS, and missile strikes."
"Whether this operation results in a strategic win for Ukraine or not," Tatarigami concluded, "it has shown that Ukraine can conduct complex, large-scale operations while maintaining higher moral ground and discipline."
But again, to what end?
If Kyiv had hoped to destabilize the regime of Russian strongman Vladimir Putin, there is no sign of that happening. Militarily, the Kursk Surprise has created problems for Russia but, at least so far, not enough to reverse Russia's advances through eastern Ukraine — slow and costly as they are. Maybe Kyiv is maneuvering for a better position at the negotiating table; it'll have to do better than occupy small towns and settlements. But bigger cities like Kursk and Belgorod remain out of reach.
For all its operational brilliance, the Kursk Surprise hasn't added up to enough to change much on the ground or in Moscow. But it has certainly been a morale-booster for Ukraine's soldiers and civilians after a year largely filled with disappointments. That's no small thing. But it still isn't enough to explain the operation.
But remember, as you read this item from Ukraine Reporter, that the White House and the Pentagon were caught just as much by surprise as Moscow was:
The West, particularly the Biden-Harris administration, isn't just delaying and denying military aid to Ukraine; it's actively sabotaging Ukrainian military operations and leaking details to the Russians in a concerted effort to prevent Russia's defeat.
That's backed up by a report today in The Economist:
Western allies were also deliberately left in the dark, claims the source. "Syrsky had two previous operations undermined by the West. One was leaked to the Russians, and on another occasion, we were instructed to abort." Limiting communication to a need-to-know basis enabled the Ukrainians to launch their attack before the Russians grasped what was happening. "They realised something was afoot but likely assumed we would need American approval for such a daring operation."
Message sent: this is what we can do without Biden's knowledge or permission, so you have no idea what we might do next. That's a powerful message to both Washington and Moscow — and one that might prove to be worth the risks.
A middle finger salute delivered by a HIMARS missile strike ought to be a wake-up call for the Biden-Harris administration's failed foreign policy, but apparently, endless fighting is exactly what they want.
Recommended: If Harris Is Doing So Great, Why Did She Go Full Commie?
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