Pakistan: Too Big to Fail

Kevin Hulbert reports:

Today, Pakistan finds itself in a very complicated security situation where there is little differentiation among radical groups. Terrorist groups, such as Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, are suddenly allied with al-Qaeda, while Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, the Pakistan Taliban, the Afghan Taliban, and other assorted miscreants and non-state actors are intent on bringing down the elected government of Pakistan. While the Pakistan government dithered, the militancy in the country took firm hold.

But, aside from the very compelling terrorism issue, there is also an overlay of a troublesome and rapidly growing Pakistani nuclear program along with an unusual problem: Pakistan is not a rogue state that might go nuclear, but rather a nuclear state that might go rogue. Such a situation presents an almost endless stream of nightmare scenarios for U.S. policymakers.

Pakistan also has one of the highest birthrates in the world and a population paradigm that is exploding with young people entering the workforce. Into this maelstrom, there is a corrupt, faltering, and virtually bankrupt economy that, for the last 13 years, has limped by, largely financed by the hat trick of IMF “loans,” U.S. coalition support funds, and U.S. foreign aid. There is little hope for millions of young men entering the workforce every year.

I can’t think of a single instance where the United States, the West, the UN or any other organization has managed to rescue a failed state, or to prevent a deteriorating state from failing — certainly not one as large and as populous as Pakistan.

We need to have some serious (and needless to say, extremely quiet) talks with India on how to deal with Pakistan’s nukes if and when the worst comes to pass.