Your Thursday Morning Dose of Doom & Gloom


And here’s what Gallup had to say about their numbers:

Gallup tracks daily the percentage of U.S. adults, aged 18 and older, who are underemployed, unemployed, and employed full-time for an employer, without seasonal adjustment. “Underemployed” respondents are employed part time, but want to work full time, or they are unemployed. “Unemployed” respondents are those within the underemployed group who are not employed, even for one hour a week, but are available and looking for work.

Unemployment and underemployment are calculated as a percent of the workforce. Payroll to Population is a measure of those who are employed by an employer for at least 30 hours per week. Payroll to Population is calculated as a percent of the total population. Daily results reflect 30-day rolling averages based on telephone interviews with approximately 30,000 adults. Because results are not seasonally adjusted, they are not directly comparable to numbers reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are based on workers 16 and older. Margin of error is ±1 percentage point.

That ±1 percentage point is some small hope to grab onto, because it means the real number could be as low as 7.9%, which is only a small uptick from 7.7% 30 days ago. Trying to get a really good fix on the employment situation in a sprawling nation of 310 million people — especially in a legal climate where underground, off-the-books work has greater appeal — might be nearly impossible.

So let’s take a look at an even broader figure, the payroll to population ratio.


I’ll pull one quote out of the text on this one:

The fact that P2P has been seen so little change in July of the past three years indicates that the percentage of people working full time for an employer in July 2013 is similar to those found in July 2012 and July 2011.

Recovery? There is no recovery.