Denial on the Nile

I’m not exactly sure what to make of this report on Egypt from StrategyPage:

What worries Egyptians the most is that the Mubarak supporters might get back in power. The most direct way is via a military coup. No one has dared to clean out all the corrupt generals or threaten the wealth of the active duty and retired generals. Meanwhile, the new officials in the new government are being offered cash for cooperation. The cycle of corruption continues and the message is that if you want more food for the poor, you’d better play along. Morsi is under pressure to reorganize his government, allowing in more democrats and Islamic radicals. That will most likely paralyze the government even more, provide the corruptors with more opportunities and make a new dictatorship look palatable. Morsi has restored some semblance of order by calling off the security forces and shortening the curfews. But people are still angry and want some fundamental changes.

Judging by the violence and protests against President Morsi and the Moslem Brotherhood, Mubarak supporters aren’t exactly Egyptians’ biggest worry. Or at least not the biggest worry of Egypt’s most vocal protestors. I suppose the case could be that Egypt’s (currently) silent majority is just fine with creeping Sharia, and that the same angry youth who took over Tahrir two years ago are the same ones out there again today.

This is what’s so worrisome. There is a portion — a small portion — of Egyptians opposed to any kind of oppression, whether it comes from the Army or the Brotherhood. But most Egyptians are apparently just fine with Morsi’s thugs, since they wear turbans instead of army caps. But at least Mubarak and his clique could make the trains run on time, as they say. Morsi is leading his people to starvation, isolation, and possibly war.

But if that’s the government the silent majority wants, it looks like they’ll get it — good and hard.